2021 01 15 ABA Adriatic League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

FMP vs KK Split at 15 January 2021
Buducnost vs Partizan at 16 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



FMP vs KK Split at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FMP and KK Split for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

FMP

1.3

1.37

KK Split

3.4

3.72

FMP HC

-6.5

-6.50

KK Split HC

+6.5

6.50

Point Line

164.5

175.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of FMP are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 30

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

91

88

2

8

W 1

100

83

Dec 25

H

Mega Basket

L

91

92

1

8

L 5

101

96

Dec 15

H

KK Zadar

L

89

99

1

7

L 4

101

114

Dec 12

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

75

111

1

6

L 3

89

113

Dec 9

A

KK Igokea

L

74

84

1

5

L 2

78

82

Dec 4

A

Cibona Zagreb

L

80

93

1

4

L 1

78

93

Nov 2

H

Borac Cacak

W

93

87

1

3

W 1

96

92

Oct 25

A

Buducnost VOLI

L

76

77

0

3

L 3

88

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of KK Split are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

78

77

4

8

W 1

90

82

Jan 3

H

Partizan NIS

L

74

86

3

8

L 5

81

90

Dec 27

A

Borac Cacak

L

69

90

3

7

L 4

72

95

Dec 11

H

KK Krka

L

78

80

3

6

L 3

86

87

Dec 6

A

Mega Basket

L

75

91

3

5

L 2

84

95

Nov 15

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

76

78

3

4

L 1

90

79

Nov 8

H

Cibona Zagreb

W

77

74

3

3

W 2

76

74

Nov 1

A

KK Zadar

W

72

66

2

3

W 1

81

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by FMP and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by KK Split.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by KK Split and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by FMP.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by FMP (in the first graph) and by KK Split in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, FMP will expected to score 87 points and the KK Split 89 points. The total points line estimated to be at 176.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

FMP

KK Split

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

19.20

15.40

DRB

25.30

21.60

AST-TO

1.30

1.16

TRB

36.90

29.40

FTM

17.10

15.60

BL

1.40

2.30

FTA

24.70

20.80

PF-Fewer

27.50

20.80

ST

7.90

5.30

TO-Fewer

14.80

13.30

Ftper

0.69

0.75

ORBper

0.46

0.36

ORB

11.60

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Buducnost vs Partizan at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buducnost and Partizan for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buducnost

1.6

2.24

Partizan

2.3

1.80

Buducnost HC

-3.5

2.50

Partizan HC

+3.5

-2.50

Point Line

150.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

KK Split

L

77

78

7

2

L 1

83

89

Dec 25

H

KK Krka

W

70

62

7

1

W 1

77

68

Dec 20

A

Mega Basket

L

72

78

6

1

L 1

80

81

Dec 6

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

67

65

6

0

W 5

79

66

Nov 22

H

Cibona Zagreb

W

87

68

5

0

W 4

85

68

Oct 25

H

KK FMP

W

77

76

4

0

W 3

68

71

Oct 17

H

Borac Cacak

W

86

83

3

0

W 2

89

88

Oct 10

A

Partizan NIS

W

101

99

2

0

W 1

110

104

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Borac Cacak

L

71

75

6

6

L 1

74

79

Jan 3

A

KK Split

W

86

74

6

5

W 1

93

84

Dec 19

A

KK Krka

L

50

69

5

5

L 1

55

75

Dec 12

H

Mega Basket

W

79

77

5

4

W 1

88

80

Nov 23

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

85

86

4

4

L 1

101

87

Nov 14

A

Cibona Zagreb

W

82

75

4

3

W 2

80

75

Nov 7

H

KK Zadar

W

78

63

3

3

W 1

88

73

Oct 31

A

KK Igokea

L

84

90

2

3

L 1

89

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buducnost (in the first graph) and by Partizan in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buducnost will expected to score 82 points and the Partizan 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buducnost

Partizan

FG%

0.54

0.52

ASS

13.80

15.20

DRB

22.00

21.00

AST-TO

1.01

1.19

TRB

31.00

33.00

FTM

18.00

15.10

BL

2.30

2.80

FTA

21.70

20.80

PF-Fewer

20.00

23.30

ST

7.00

7.60

TO-Fewer

13.60

12.80

Ftper

0.83

0.72

ORBper

0.41

0.57

ORB

9.00

12.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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