2021 01 15 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Union Berlin vs Leverkusen at 15 January 2021
Werder Bremen vs Augsburg at 16 January 2021
Stuttgart vs M’gladbach at 16 January 2021
Hoffenheim vs Bielefeld at 16 January 2021
FC Koln vs Hertha at 16 January 2021
Dortmund vs Mainz at 16 January 2021
Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig at 16 January 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Schalke 04 at 17 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg at 17 January 2021


Union Berlin vs Leverkusen at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Union Berlin

3.39

2.49

10.7

Draw

3.36

3.92

-4.3

Leverkusen

2.24

2.92

-10.4

Over 2.5

2.01

1.85

4.3

Under 2.5

1.83

2.17

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (10.7 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Union Berlin in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Dortmund

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Hertha

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

3

D

O

G

22 Nov

FC Koln

A

2

1

W

O

G


Leverkusen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

FC Koln

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

4

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

29 Nov

Hertha

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Bielefeld

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Union Berlin

25%

34%

16%

24%

Leverkusen

32%

28%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.05 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.39 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.88

1

5.62

2-3

2.24

2

4.95

4+

3.38

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.88

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.22

3.69

2-3 goals

2.59

4.74

2.48

4+ goals

2.43

3.65

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.52

4.24

2.72

Un 1.5

2.39

3.22

3.69

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.67

2.50

Un 2.5

2.89

2.64

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.65

3.18

Un 3.5

2.51

4.05

2.82

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.91

3.02

No Goal

2.08

6.12

2.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

5.14

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

6.12

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Werder Bremen vs Augsburg at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

2.24

2.90

-10.2

Draw

3.32

3.86

-4.2

Augsburg

3.42

2.53

10.3

Over 2.5

2.13

1.87

6.5

Under 2.5

1.75

2.15

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Union Berlin

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Stuttgart

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Wolfsburg

A

3

5

L

O

G

21 Nov

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G


Augsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Stuttgart

H

1

4

L

O

G

02 Jan

FC Koln

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Schalke 04

H

2

2

D

O

G

07 Dec

Hoffenheim

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Freiburg

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

28%

35%

19%

18%

Augsburg

26%

30%

23%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.35 goals and Augsburg to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.28 goals and Augsburg to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.05

1

5.71

2-3

2.17

2

4.59

4+

3.42

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

26.32

Un 2.5

2.15

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.42

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.43

2.98

2-3 goals

2.97

4.38

2.30

4+ goals

3.01

3.56

2.58

Ov 1.5

2.98

4.02

2.40

Un 1.5

2.68

3.43

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.64

6.51

2.14

Un 2.5

3.27

2.63

3.18

Ov 3.5

3.01

3.56

2.58

Un 3.5

2.86

3.99

2.50

Goal-Goal

3.47

2.86

2.77

No Goal

2.45

6.46

2.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.79

5.23

2.22

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

6.46

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stuttgart vs M’gladbach at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

2.93

2.29

9.5

Draw

3.80

4.00

-1.3

M’gladbach

2.33

3.18

-11.5

Over 2.5

1.51

1.79

-10.4

Under 2.5

2.50

2.27

4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Augsburg

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Union Berlin

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Dortmund

A

5

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Werder Bremen

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Bayern Munich

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Nov

Hoffenheim

A

3

3

D

O

G


M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

3

3

D

O

G

12 Dec

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Schalke 04

H

4

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Augsburg

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

25%

34%

10%

31%

M’gladbach

35%

25%

22%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.42 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.48 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.75

1

5.52

2-3

2.33

2

5.68

4+

3.27

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.75

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.79

6+

17.86

Un 2.5

2.26

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

3.27

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.44

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.10

4.24

2-3 goals

2.54

4.99

2.47

4+ goals

2.04

3.92

3.92

Ov 1.5

2.30

4.48

2.92

Un 1.5

2.26

3.10

4.24

Ov 2.5

1.97

7.17

2.84

Un 2.5

2.90

2.58

3.75

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.92

3.92

Un 3.5

2.43

4.05

2.94

Goal-Goal

2.81

3.00

3.22

No Goal

1.95

5.93

3.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.21

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

5.93

3.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hoffenheim vs Bielefeld at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Bielefeld for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hoffenheim

1.73

2.16

-11.5

Draw

3.92

3.92

0.0

Bielefeld

4.87

3.53

7.8

Over 2.5

1.67

1.84

-5.5

Under 2.5

2.25

2.19

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Under 2.5 (7.8 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Schalke 04

A

0

4

L

O

N

02 Jan

Freiburg

H

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Dec

Leverkusen

A

1

4

L

O

G

07 Dec

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Nov

Stuttgart

H

3

3

D

O

G


Bielefeld in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance as a guest.
Bielefeld, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Hertha

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

M’gladbach

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Schalke 04

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Freiburg

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Mainz

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

RB Leipzig

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Leverkusen

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Bielefeld.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hoffenheim

20%

32%

23%

25%

Bielefeld

31%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.94 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.52 goals and Bielefeld to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.29

1

5.88

2-3

2.12

2

4.48

4+

3.41

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.29

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

2.23

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.