2021 01 15 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven at 16 January 2021
Zwolle vs For Sittard at 16 January 2021
Utrecht vs Heracles at 16 January 2021
FC Emmen vs Vitesse at 16 January 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Den Haag at 16 January 2021
Waalwijk vs Willem II at 17 January 2021
Groningen vs Twente at 17 January 2021
Ajax vs Feyenoord at 17 January 2021
VVV Venlo vs Heerenveen at 17 January 2021


Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

4.80

2.85

14.3

Draw

4.11

3.60

3.4

PSV Eindhoven

1.63

2.69

-24.2

Over 2.5

1.60

1.81

-7.3

Under 2.5

2.26

2.23

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sparta Rotterdam, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.3 %, 3.4 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Feyenoord

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Dec

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

FC Emmen

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

1

L

U

N

22 Nov

Den Haag

H

6

0

W

O

N


PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance as a guest.
PSV Eindhoven, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

Ajax

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Waalwijk

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Nov

Twente

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, PSV Eindhoven.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

23%

37%

19%

20%

PSV Eindhoven

18%

42%

23%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.9 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.37 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

25.00

0-1

4.93

1

6.13

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

3.24

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.13

Un 1.5

4.93

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

29.41

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.57

Ov 3.5

3.24

NoG

2.73

Un 3.5

1.44

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.12

5.08

2.07

2-3 goals

3.25

3.08

2.72

4+ goals

2.29

3.91

3.25

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.36

2.91

Un 1.5

3.12

5.08

2.07

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.99

2.50

Un 2.5

4.55

2.26

2.96

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.91

3.25

Un 3.5

3.21

3.48

2.49

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.67

3.49

No Goal

2.71

9.15

1.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

6.04

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.94

9.15

1.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zwolle vs For Sittard at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

1.87

2.11

-6.1

Draw

3.75

4.02

-1.8

For Sittard

3.93

3.62

2.2

Over 2.5

1.67

1.75

-2.7

Under 2.5

2.25

2.34

-1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Ajax

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Vitesse

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G

21 Nov

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G


For Sittard in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Heerenveen

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Waalwijk

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Heracles

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Willem II

H

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Vitesse

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Nov

Feyenoord

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

20%

28%

24%

27%

For Sittard

30%

34%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.81 goals and For Sittard to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.59 goals and For Sittard to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.67

1

6.49

2-3

2.14

2

4.69

4+

3.14

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.35

Un 1.5

4.67

5

10.87

Ov 2.5

1.75

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.34

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.14

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.57

3.10

2-3 goals

1.96

4.77

3.56

4+ goals

2.11

3.49

4.18

Ov 1.5

2.02

4.15

3.79

Un 1.5

2.52

3.57

3.10

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.29

3.47

Un 2.5

2.70

2.70

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.49

4.18

Un 3.5

2.11

4.31

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.96

4.12

No Goal

1.84

7.32

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.08

3.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

7.32

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Utrecht vs Heracles at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Utrecht and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Utrecht

1.66

2.00

-10.2

Draw

4.11

4.17

-0.4

Heracles

4.65

3.83

4.6

Over 2.5

1.64

1.71

-2.5

Under 2.5

2.29

2.40

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles (4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Utrecht in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance at home.
Utrecht, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Groningen

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

FC Emmen

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Feyenoord

A

1

1

D

U

G


Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance as a guest.
Heracles, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

FC Emmen

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Vitesse

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Groningen

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Feyenoord

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Nov

Ajax

A

0

5

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Utrecht and the red line for guest team, Heracles.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Utrecht

21%

22%

31%

26%

Heracles

30%

36%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.98 goals and Heracles to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.63 goals and Heracles to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.98

1

7.19

2-3

2.09

2

4.65

4+

3.12

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.29

Un 1.5

4.98

5

10.42

Ov 2.5

1.71

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.40

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

3.12

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.47

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.09

3.24

2.72

2-3 goals

1.67

6.06

4.20

4+ goals

2.15

3.21

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.47

4.30

Un 1.5

3.09

3.24

2.72

Ov 2.5

1.72

5.85

4.06

Un 2.5

2.62

2.95

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.21

4.46

Un 3.5

1.94

4.82

3.62

Goal-Goal

2.13

3.11

4.80

No Goal

1.87

7.16

3.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

4.78

4.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.12

7.16

2.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Emmen vs Vitesse at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

5.20

3.39

10.3

Draw

4.26

3.73

3.3

Vitesse

1.58

2.29

-19.6

Over 2.5

1.65

1.63

0.7

Under 2.5

2.29

2.59

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 3.3 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Heracles

A

0

4

L

O

N

09 Jan

Twente

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

3

L

O

G

18 Dec

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Den Haag

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Nov

Ajax

H

0

5

L

O

N

22 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

1

L

U

N


Vitesse in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance as a guest.
Vitesse, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Utrecht

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Heracles

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Feyenoord

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Zwolle

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

For Sittard

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Groningen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Vitesse.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

23%

38%

19%

20%

Vitesse

12%

37%

27%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.84 goals and Vitesse to score 2.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and the guest team Vitesse to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.37 goals and Vitesse to score 1.62 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

37.04

0-1

6.33

1

7.63

2-3

2.09

2

4.41

4+

2.75

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.19

4

4.61

Un 1.5

6.33

5

10.10

Ov 2.5

1.63

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.60

Gg

1.47

Ov 3.5

2.75

NoG

3.12

Un 3.5

1.57

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.