# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven at 16 January 2021**** Zwolle vs For Sittard at 16 January 2021**** Utrecht vs Heracles at 16 January 2021**** FC Emmen vs Vitesse at 16 January 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Den Haag at 16 January 2021**** Waalwijk vs Willem II at 17 January 2021**** Groningen vs Twente at 17 January 2021**** Ajax vs Feyenoord at 17 January 2021**** VVV Venlo vs Heerenveen at 17 January 2021**

###
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **PSV Eindhoven** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
4.80 |
2.85 |
14.3 |

Draw |
4.11 |
3.60 |
3.4 |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.63 |
2.69 |
-24.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.81 |
-7.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.23 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sparta Rotterdam, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.3 %, 3.4 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Den Haag |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** as a guest**.

PSV Eindhoven,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Twente |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **PSV Eindhoven. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
23% |
37% |
19% |
20% |

PSV Eindhoven |
18% |
42% |
23% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **0.9 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.92** goals in the game and the guest team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.37 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
25.00 |
0-1 |
4.93 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.24 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.93 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.57 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.24 |

NoG |
2.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.12 |
5.08 |
2.07 |

2-3 goals |
3.25 |
3.08 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.91 |
3.25 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.36 |
2.91 |

Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
5.08 |
2.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.99 |
2.50 |

Un 2.5 |
4.55 |
2.26 |
2.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.91 |
3.25 |

Un 3.5 |
3.21 |
3.48 |
2.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.94 |
2.67 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
2.71 |
9.15 |
1.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.04 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
9.15 |
1.91 |

####
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###
Zwolle vs For Sittard at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **For Sittard** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
1.87 |
2.11 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
3.75 |
4.02 |
-1.8 |

For Sittard |
3.93 |
3.62 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.75 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.34 |
-1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** as a guest**.

For Sittard,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Nov |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **For Sittard. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
20% |
28% |
24% |
27% |

For Sittard |
30% |
34% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.81 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.59 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.67 |

1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
3.14 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.35 |
Un 1.5 |
4.67 |

5 |
10.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.34 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |

NoG |
2.28 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.77 |
3.56 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.49 |
4.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
4.15 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.29 |
3.47 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.70 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.49 |
4.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
4.31 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.96 |
4.12 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
7.32 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.08 |
3.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
7.32 |
2.96 |

####
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###
Utrecht vs Heracles at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Utrecht** and **Heracles** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Utrecht |
1.66 |
2.00 |
-10.2 |

Draw |
4.11 |
4.17 |
-0.4 |

Heracles |
4.65 |
3.83 |
4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.71 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.40 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heracles (4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** at home**.

Utrecht,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** as a guest**.

Heracles,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Utrecht** and the red line for guest team, **Heracles. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Utrecht |
21% |
22% |
31% |
26% |

Heracles |
30% |
36% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **1.98 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.98 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.12 |

3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.98 |

5 |
10.42 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.40 |

Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.12 |

NoG |
2.25 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.09 |
3.24 |
2.72 |

2-3 goals |
1.67 |
6.06 |
4.20 |

4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.21 |
4.46 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.47 |
4.30 |

Un 1.5 |
3.09 |
3.24 |
2.72 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
5.85 |
4.06 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.95 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.21 |
4.46 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.82 |
3.62 |

Goal-Goal |
2.13 |
3.11 |
4.80 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
7.16 |
3.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
4.78 |
4.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.16 |
2.91 |

####
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###
FC Emmen vs Vitesse at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Vitesse** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
5.20 |
3.39 |
10.3 |

Draw |
4.26 |
3.73 |
3.3 |

Vitesse |
1.58 |
2.29 |
-19.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.63 |
0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.59 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Draw, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 3.3 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** as a guest**.

Vitesse,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Vitesse. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
23% |
38% |
19% |
20% |

Vitesse |
12% |
37% |
27% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **2.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.89** goals in the game and the guest team **Vitesse ** to win by **1.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
37.04 |
0-1 |
6.33 |

1 |
7.63 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
2.75 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.61 |
Un 1.5 |
6.33 |

5 |
10.10 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.60 |

Gg |
1.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.75 |

NoG |
3.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.57 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.