2021 01 15 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Le Mans vs Limoges at 15 January 2021
Gravelines vs Cholet at 16 January 2021
Roanne vs Strasbourg at 16 January 2021
Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs Dijon at 16 January 2021
Le Portel vs Nanterre at 16 January 2021
Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Bourg at 16 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Le Mans vs Limoges at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Le Mans and Limoges for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Le Mans

1.63

1.80

Limoges

2.3

2.25

Le Mans HC

-2.5

-2.50

Limoges HC

+2.5

2.50

Point Line

158.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Mans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

H

Paris Levallois

W

95

88

3

3

W 1

101

84

Dec 22

A

JL Bourg

L

78

98

2

3

L 3

79

92

Oct 28

A

Elan Bearnais

L

81

90

2

2

L 2

79

90

Oct 24

H

Chalons-Reims

L

84

87

2

1

L 1

78

89

Oct 3

H

BCM Gravelines

W

69

64

2

0

W 1

72

72

Sep 26

H

Strasbourg

W

97

79

1

0

W 0

94

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

JL Bourg

W

74

72

4

3

W 1

75

68

Nov 21

A

Monaco

L

59

86

3

3

L 2

69

82

Oct 26

A

Paris Levallois

L

76

82

3

2

L 1

81

78

Oct 12

A

Strasbourg

W

74

66

3

1

W 3

72

62

Oct 3

H

Le Portel

W

91

68

2

1

W 2

88

72

Sep 29

A

BCM Gravelines

W

77

65

1

1

W 1

80

74

Sep 26

H

Nanterre

L

76

85

0

1

L 0

79

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Mans and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Mans.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Le Mans (in the first graph) and by Limoges in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Le Mans will expected to score 78 points and the Limoges 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Le Mans

Limoges

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

19.00

18.40

DRB

21.80

18.70

AST-TO

1.21

1.48

TRB

31.20

25.60

FTM

16.80

16.90

BL

2.80

1.40

FTA

21.70

22.10

PF-Fewer

22.80

18.30

ST

6.50

4.70

TO-Fewer

15.70

12.40

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.43

0.37

ORB

9.30

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gravelines vs Cholet at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gravelines and Cholet for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gravelines

1.7

3.70

Cholet

2.17

1.37

Gravelines HC

-2.5

6.50

Cholet HC

+2.5

-6.50

Point Line

153.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

A

ASVEL

L

68

96

2

5

L 1

69

83

Dec 19

H

Chalons-Reims

W

84

80

2

4

W 1

78

82

Oct 24

H

Dijon

L

67

81

1

4

L 1

73

81

Oct 9

H

Roanne

W

77

43

1

3

W 1

73

47

Oct 3

A

Le Mans

L

64

69

0

3

L 2

60

65

Sep 29

H

Limoges

L

65

77

0

2

L 1

69

81

Sep 26

A

Paris Levallois

L

57

89

0

1

L 0

60

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Nanterre

W

80

76

3

4

W 2

83

75

Dec 12

H

Dijon

W

83

73

2

4

W 1

90

73

Oct 16

A

Roanne

L

88

96

1

4

L 3

83

106

Oct 11

H

ASVEL

L

73

82

1

3

L 2

74

70

Oct 2

A

Paris Levallois

L

68

72

1

2

L 1

72

69

Sep 29

H

Elan Chalon

W

91

73

1

1

W 1

88

79

Sep 26

A

Orleans Loiret

L

63

101

0

1

L 0

61

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gravelines and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cholet.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cholet and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gravelines.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gravelines (in the first graph) and by Cholet in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gravelines will expected to score 74 points and the Cholet 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gravelines

Cholet

FG%

0.50

0.53

ASS

16.10

17.70

DRB

20.30

22.60

AST-TO

0.93

1.20

TRB

28.10

32.70

FTM

12.30

12.60

BL

2.00

1.40

FTA

17.30

18.60

PF-Fewer

19.30

19.40

ST

8.30

6.70

TO-Fewer

17.40

14.70

Ftper

0.71

0.68

ORBper

0.39

0.45

ORB

7.90

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Roanne vs Strasbourg at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roanne and Strasbourg for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Roanne

2.35

3.64

Strasbourg

1.6

1.38

Roanne HC

+3.5

6.50

Strasbourg HC

-3.5

-6.50

Point Line

164.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 20

H

Dijon

L

81

91

2

4

L 1

88

91

Dec 15

A

Elan Chalon

W

85

80

2

3

W 2

82

87

Oct 16

H

Cholet

W

96

88

1

3

W 1

93

90

Oct 9

A

BCM Gravelines

L

43

77

0

3

L 2

45

87

Oct 3

A

Monaco

L

61

86

0

2

L 1

71

82

Sep 27

A

JL Bourg

L

63

80

0

1

L 0

64

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Strasbourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Elan Bearnais

W

94

71

4

4

W 1

91

71

Oct 24

H

Le Portel

L

83

94

3

4

L 1

80

99

Oct 19

H

Boulazac

W

100

84

3

3

W 1

91

91

Oct 17

A

Nanterre

L

80

89

2

3

L 2

83

88

Oct 12

H

Limoges

L

66

74

2

2

L 1

70

78

Oct 7

H

Orleans Loiret

W

97

91

2

1

W 2

94

80

Oct 3

A

Elan Chalon

W

76

54

1

1

W 1

73

59

Sep 26

A

Le Mans

L

79

97

0

1

L 0

74

91

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Strasbourg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Strasbourg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Roanne (in the first graph) and by Strasbourg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Roanne will expected to score 79 points and the Strasbourg 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Roanne

Strasbourg

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

13.30

18.10

DRB

18.20

20.50

AST-TO

0.80

1.38

TRB

26.70

32.40

FTM

13.80

16.00

BL

3.30

2.90

FTA

20.20

20.10

PF-Fewer

19.00

23.00

ST

8.50

8.10

TO-Fewer

16.70

13.10

Ftper

0.69

0.80

ORBper

0.47

0.58

ORB

8.50

11.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Boulazac Dordogne Pro vs Dijon at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boulazac Dordogne Pro and Dijon for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

2.7

2.11

Dijon

1.47

1.90

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+4.5

1.50

Dijon HC

-4.5

-1.50

Point Line

155.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

H

Monaco

L

71

77

0

5

L 4

83

74

Dec 19

A

Paris Levallois

L

79

98

0

4

L 3

84

94

Oct 24

A

Elan Bearnais

L

60

89

0

3

L 2

58

89

Oct 19

A

Strasbourg

L

84

100

0

2

L 1

82

94

Oct 17

H

Le Portel

L

70

71

0

1

L 0

67

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

H

JL Bourg

W

80

71

7

2

W 2

81

67

Dec 20

A

Roanne

W

91

81

6

2

W 1

86

89

Dec 12

A

Cholet

L

73

83

5

2

L 2

71

84

Nov 14

A

Monaco

L

62

70

5

1

L 1

72

67

Oct 27

H

Chalons-Reims

W

87

72

5

0

W 4

81

74

Oct 24

A

BCM Gravelines

W

81

67

4

0

W 3

84

76

Oct 17

H

Elan Bearnais

W

87

71

3

0

W 2

84

71

Oct 9

A

Le Portel

W

73

65

2

0

W 1

70

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Boulazac Dordogne Pro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro (in the first graph) and by Dijon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Boulazac Dordogne Pro will expected to score 76 points and the Dijon 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

Dijon

FG%

0.52

0.59

ASS

14.60

19.40

DRB

20.40

19.80

AST-TO

0.81

1.38

TRB

28.60

26.40

FTM

14.80

9.20

BL

2.00

2.20

FTA

20.00

13.10

PF-Fewer

22.40

19.00

ST

7.40

8.80

TO-Fewer

18.00

14.10

Ftper

0.74

0.70

ORBper

0.40

0.34

ORB

8.20

6.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Le Portel vs Nanterre at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Le Portel and Nanterre for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Le Portel

2.25

3.11

Nanterre

1.65

1.47

Le Portel HC

+2.5

5.50

Nanterre HC

-2.5

-5.50

Point Line

160.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Portel are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Orleans Loiret

W

85

84

4

3

W 1

82

74

Dec 14

A

ASVEL

L

66

101

3

3

L 1

67

87

Oct 24

A

Strasbourg

W

94

83

3

2

W 3

91

78

Oct 21

H

Chalons-Reims

W

78

76

2

2

W 2

73

78

Oct 17

A

Boulazac

W

71

70

1

2

W 1

64

76

Oct 9

H

Dijon

L

65

73

0

2

L 1

71

73

Oct 3

A

Limoges

L

68

91

0

1

L 0

72

96

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

H

Cholet

L

76

80

3

3

L 2

74

81

Nov 22

A

Paris Levallois

L

67

73

3

2

L 1

71

70

Oct 17

H

Strasbourg

W

89

80

3

1

W 3

86

75

Oct 10

A

Chalons-Reims

W

83

74

2

1

W 2

77

76

Sep 26

A

Limoges

W

85

76

1

1

W 1

90

80

Sep 23

H

JL Bourg

L

82

95

0

1

L 0

83

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Portel and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Portel.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Le Portel (in the first graph) and by Nanterre in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.