2021 01 15 German BBL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Niners Chemnitz vs Bonn at 15 January 2021
Riesen Ludwigsburg vs Brose Bamberg at 16 January 2021
Rasta Vechta vs Giessen 46ers at 16 January 2021
Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayreuth at 16 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Niners Chemnitz vs Bonn at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Niners Chemnitz and Bonn for German BBL, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Niners Chemnitz

2.1

1.96

Bonn

1.75

2.05

Niners Chemnitz HC

+1.5

-1.50

Bonn HC

-1.5

1.50

Point Line

168.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Niners Chemnitz are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Bayern Munich

L

76

77

3

8

83

74

Dec 30

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

96

79

3

7

92

79

Dec 27

A

Hamburg Towers

W

95

75

2

7

102

74

Dec 22

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

91

114

1

7

96

106

Dec 18

A

Giessen 46ers

W

95

83

1

6

83

82

Dec 12

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

67

76

0

6

67

81

Dec 9

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

76

88

0

5

79

82

Dec 6

H

Fraport Skyliners

L

70

83

0

4

72

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bonn are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

77

89

3

8

77

95

Jan 2

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

72

73

3

7

75

72

Dec 27

H

BG Goettingen

W

102

87

3

6

93

89

Dec 23

H

Giessen 46ers

W

81

68

2

6

70

67

Dec 19

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

66

80

1

6

69

84

Dec 11

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

80

69

1

5

77

75

Dec 6

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

92

97

0

5

94

87

Dec 3

H

Hamburg Towers

L

63

93

0

4

68

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Niners Chemnitz and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bonn.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bonn and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Niners Chemnitz.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Niners Chemnitz (in the first graph) and by Bonn in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Niners Chemnitz will expected to score 84 points and the Bonn 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Niners Chemnitz

Bonn

FG%

0.57

0.53

ASS

18.00

16.50

DRB

20.40

22.10

AST-TO

1.15

1.25

TRB

27.70

29.70

FTM

16.20

13.00

BL

2.80

1.70

FTA

19.90

17.50

PF-Fewer

23.80

21.20

ST

5.50

6.10

TO-Fewer

15.70

13.20

Ftper

0.81

0.74

ORBper

0.36

0.34

ORB

7.30

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Riesen Ludwigsburg vs Brose Bamberg at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Riesen Ludwigsburg and Brose Bamberg for German BBL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Riesen Ludwigsburg

1.34

2.13

Brose Bamberg

3.3

1.89

Riesen Ludwigsburg HC

-6.5

2.00

Brose Bamberg HC

+6.5

-2.00

Point Line

163.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Riesen Ludwigsburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

89

87

11

1

93

86

Jan 2

A

Medi Bayreuth

W

89

70

10

1

85

71

Dec 29

H

Hamburg Towers

W

86

65

9

1

92

64

Dec 27

H

s.Oliver Baskets

W

87

72

8

1

87

77

Dec 22

A

BV Chemnitz 99

W

114

91

7

1

106

91

Dec 19

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

85

73

6

1

82

79

Dec 12

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

94

80

5

1

97

84

Dec 8

H

ALBA Berlin

W

78

71

4

1

86

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brose Bamberg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

74

67

5

6

77

66

Jan 3

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

78

85

4

6

80

77

Dec 30

H

Medi Bayreuth

L

67

73

4

5

64

74

Dec 27

A

Bayern Munich

L

70

84

4

4

77

81

Dec 19

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

W

80

66

4

3

80

70

Dec 16

H

s.Oliver Baskets

W

81

66

3

3

81

70

Dec 13

A

ALBA Berlin

L

70

82

2

3

77

81

Dec 6

A

Giessen 46ers

W

106

99

2

2

92

98

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brose Bamberg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brose Bamberg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Riesen Ludwigsburg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg (in the first graph) and by Brose Bamberg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Riesen Ludwigsburg will expected to score 85 points and the Brose Bamberg 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Riesen Ludwigsburg

Brose Bamberg

FG%

0.55

0.56

ASS

16.00

19.00

DRB

20.80

21.30

AST-TO

1.48

1.28

TRB

30.20

30.40

FTM

16.30

12.80

BL

2.20

3.10

FTA

22.30

16.20

PF-Fewer

20.10

18.50

ST

7.00

6.50

TO-Fewer

10.80

14.80

Ftper

0.73

0.79

ORBper

0.45

0.43

ORB

9.40

9.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Rasta Vechta vs Giessen 46ers at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rasta Vechta and Giessen 46ers for German BBL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Rasta Vechta

1.6

2.29

Giessen 46ers

2.35

1.78

Rasta Vechta HC

-3.5

2.50

Giessen 46ers HC

+3.5

-2.50

Point Line

174.5

167.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Rasta Vechta are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

A

Hamburg Towers

L

74

92

0

11

80

91

Dec 30

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

80

82

0

10

82

74

Dec 27

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

81

98

0

9

84

92

Dec 23

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

L

72

82

0

8

69

82

Dec 19

A

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

73

85

0

7

77

79

Dec 11

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

69

80

0

6

69

85

Dec 9

H

Medi Bayreuth

L

89

92

0

5

85

94

Dec 6

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

73

74

0

4

76

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Giessen 46ers are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

ALBA Berlin

L

82

92

2

10

90

91

Jan 2

H

BG Goettingen

L

90

92

2

9

82

94

Dec 30

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

75

74

2

8

78

78

Dec 26

A

Medi Bayreuth

W

110

99

1

7

105

101

Dec 23

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

68

81

0

8

68

86

Dec 18

H

BV Chemnitz 99

L

83

95

0

7

77

95

Dec 15

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

L

93

105

0

6

89

105

Dec 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

71

93

0

5

78

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Rasta Vechta and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Giessen 46ers.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Giessen 46ers and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Rasta Vechta.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Rasta Vechta (in the first graph) and by Giessen 46ers in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Rasta Vechta will expected to score 86 points and the Giessen 46ers 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Rasta Vechta

Giessen 46ers

FG%

0.50

0.53

ASS

16.50

16.20

DRB

21.50

20.20

AST-TO

1.06

1.14

TRB

30.20

29.80

FTM

17.60

11.60

BL

2.20

2.20

FTA

23.10

13.80

PF-Fewer

22.10

22.10

ST

4.50

5.90

TO-Fewer

15.60

14.20

Ftper

0.76

0.84

ORBper

0.40

0.48

ORB

8.70

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Crailsheim Merlins vs Bayreuth at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crailsheim Merlins and Bayreuth for German BBL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Crailsheim Merlins

1.24

1.57

Bayreuth

4.15

2.77

Crailsheim Merlins HC

-8.5

-4.50

Bayreuth HC

+8.5

4.50

Point Line

174.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crailsheim Merlins are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Hamburg Towers

L

72

89

10

2

77

88

Jan 3

A

s.Oliver Baskets

W

86

80

10

1

86

85

Dec 29

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

86

84

9

1

90

83

Dec 27

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

98

81

8

1

94

88

Dec 22

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

76

64

7

1

78

68

Dec 20

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

108

75

6

1

98

71

Dec 12

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

94

80

5

1

96

72

Dec 9

H

BV Chemnitz 99

W

88

76

4

1

82

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayreuth are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

73

80

4

8

74

72

Jan 2

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

70

89

4

7

74

83

Dec 30

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

W

73

67

4

6

76

70

Dec 26

H

Giessen 46ers

L

99

110

3

6

86

109

Dec 22

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

87

93

3

5

87

99

Dec 19

A

Fraport Skyliners

L

86

104

3

4

89

110

Dec 13

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

79

90

3

3

72

85

Dec 9

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

92

89

3

2

88

96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crailsheim Merlins and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayreuth.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayreuth and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crailsheim Merlins.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Crailsheim Merlins (in the first graph) and by Bayreuth in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Crailsheim Merlins will expected to score 88 points and the Bayreuth 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Crailsheim Merlins

Bayreuth

FG%

0.57

0.55

ASS

17.30

18.80

DRB

22.20

21.20

AST-TO

1.25

1.37

TRB

31.00

28.90

FTM

19.80

17.20

BL

2.20

1.70

FTA

25.20

21.20

PF-Fewer

23.10

17.30

ST

7.10

6.70

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.70

Ftper

0.78

0.81

ORBper

0.40

0.37

ORB

8.80

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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