2021 01 15 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AEK Athens vs Promitheas at 16 January 2021
Aris vs Panathinaikos at 17 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



AEK Athens vs Promitheas at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.29

1.56

Promitheas

3.65

2.78

AEK Athens HC

-7.5

-4.50

Promitheas HC

+7.5

4.50

Point Line

157.5

149.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

75

80

8

2

L 1

83

72

Jan 2

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

89

72

8

1

W 1

89

71

Dec 27

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

7

1

L 1

72

76

Dec 20

H

Aris

W

84

67

7

0

W 6

79

69

Dec 12

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

0

W 5

81

77

Dec 5

H

P.A.O.K.

W

85

84

5

0

W 4

79

81

Nov 21

A

Messolonghi

W

87

66

4

0

W 3

85

69

Nov 7

A

Peristeri

W

66

62

3

0

W 2

68

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

87

66

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

77

87

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

86

86

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

60

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

73

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

69

66

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

78

96

Nov 21

H

P.A.O.K.

W

83

80

1

0

W 0

77

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 79 points and the Promitheas 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Promitheas

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

16.80

15.90

DRB

21.60

24.00

AST-TO

1.44

1.22

TRB

30.20

30.50

FTM

16.80

15.50

BL

2.90

4.40

FTA

23.10

22.40

PF-Fewer

23.70

18.90

ST

5.90

6.40

TO-Fewer

11.70

13.00

Ftper

0.73

0.69

ORBper

0.40

0.27

ORB

8.60

6.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Aris vs Panathinaikos at 17 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Panathinaikos for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

9

2.96

Panathinaikos

1.06

1.51

Aris HC

+16.5

5.00

Panathinaikos HC

-16.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

73

87

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

61

69

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

74

83

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

71

80

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

84

86

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

72

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

74

90

Dec 5

H

Promitheas Patras

W

94

83

2

1

W 2

93

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

AEK Athens

W

80

75

8

1

W 1

84

71

Jan 3

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

82

92

7

1

L 1

85

90

Dec 27

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

106

74

7

0

W 6

108

80

Dec 20

A

Messolonghi

W

73

66

6

0

W 5

71

69

Dec 13

H

Peristeri

W

76

57

5

0

W 4

78

59

Dec 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

79

53

4

0

W 3

75

54

Nov 22

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

90

67

3

0

W 2

90

66

Nov 8

H

P.A.O.K.

W

96

67

2

0

W 1

90

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 72 points and the Panathinaikos 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Panathinaikos

FG%

0.52

0.57

ASS

12.40

18.90

DRB

21.20

26.30

AST-TO

0.89

1.17

TRB

29.40

35.10

FTM

17.10

16.60

BL

2.10

3.20

FTA

22.80

20.40

PF-Fewer

20.90

19.90

ST

8.50

7.80

TO-Fewer

13.90

16.10

Ftper

0.75

0.81

ORBper

0.39

0.33

ORB

8.20

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *