# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Plymouth vs Crewe at 16 January 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 January 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Charlton at 16 January 2021**** Burton vs Ipswich at 16 January 2021**** Swindon vs Doncaster at 16 January 2021**** Rochdale vs Wigan at 16 January 2021**** Northampton vs Oxford at 16 January 2021**** Hull vs Blackpool at 16 January 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth at 16 January 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Sunderland at 16 January 2021**** Accrington vs Gillingham at 16 January 2021**** Peterboro vs Milton Keynes Dons at 16 January 2021**

###
Plymouth vs Crewe at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Plymouth** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Plymouth |
2.92 |
2.23 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.61 |
3.68 |
-0.5 |

Crewe |
2.32 |
3.58 |
-15.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.15 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.87 |
7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Plymouth, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** at home**.

Plymouth,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Burton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Plymouth** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Plymouth |
22% |
36% |
25% |
17% |

Crewe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Plymouth ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.23 |
3.69 |
3.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
3.87 |
3.54 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.28 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.66 |
3.61 |

Un 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.69 |
3.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.82 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.62 |
4.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.28 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.80 |
3.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.61 |
3.84 |

No Goal |
1.82 |
6.47 |
3.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.66 |
2.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.47 |
3.30 |

####
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###
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
3.00 |
2.82 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.80 |
-4.5 |

Lincoln |
2.42 |
2.61 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
1.96 |
5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.04 |
-10.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
30% |
29% |
24% |
17% |

Lincoln |
23% |
38% |
25% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.72 |
3.61 |
2.20 |

2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.42 |
2.52 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.17 |
3.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.88 |
2.79 |

Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
3.61 |
2.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.08 |
2.63 |

Un 2.5 |
4.02 |
2.74 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.17 |
3.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.94 |
4.11 |
2.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.77 |
2.78 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.88 |
6.68 |
1.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.12 |
2.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.11 |
6.68 |
2.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bristol Rvs vs Charlton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bristol Rvs** and **Charlton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bristol Rvs |
3.00 |
2.80 |
2.4 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.76 |
-3.4 |

Charlton |
2.38 |
2.65 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.98 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.02 |
-6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** at home**.

Bristol Rvs,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** as a guest**.

Charlton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bristol Rvs** and the red line for guest team, **Charlton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bristol Rvs |
30% |
30% |
24% |
16% |

Charlton |
23% |
38% |
26% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Charlton** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |

2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.34 |
2.54 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.13 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.83 |
2.82 |

Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.62 |
2.25 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.08 |
2.66 |

Un 2.5 |
3.93 |
2.72 |
2.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.13 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.91 |
4.07 |
2.43 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.76 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.80 |
6.67 |
2.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.14 |
2.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
6.67 |
2.04 |

####
Go to Top

###
Burton vs Ipswich at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burton** and **Ipswich** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burton |
2.96 |
2.87 |
1.1 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.56 |
-2.0 |

Ipswich |
2.39 |
2.70 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.15 |
-3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.87 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burton (1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** at home**.

Burton,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 10 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** as a guest**.

Ipswich,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Burton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burton** and the red line for guest team, **Ipswich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burton |
28% |
36% |
23% |
13% |

Ipswich |
25% |
37% |
27% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Ipswich** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.93 |