2021 01 15 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Plymouth vs Crewe at 16 January 2021
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 January 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Charlton at 16 January 2021
Burton vs Ipswich at 16 January 2021
Swindon vs Doncaster at 16 January 2021
Rochdale vs Wigan at 16 January 2021
Northampton vs Oxford at 16 January 2021
Hull vs Blackpool at 16 January 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth at 16 January 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Sunderland at 16 January 2021
Accrington vs Gillingham at 16 January 2021
Peterboro vs Milton Keynes Dons at 16 January 2021


Plymouth vs Crewe at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Plymouth and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Plymouth

2.92

2.23

10.6

Draw

3.61

3.68

-0.5

Crewe

2.32

3.58

-15.2

Over 2.5

1.71

2.15

-12.0

Under 2.5

2.16

1.87

7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Plymouth, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Plymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance at home.
Plymouth, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Oxford

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol Rvs

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Ipswich

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Rochdale

H

0

4

L

O

N


Crewe in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Burton

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Swindon

H

4

2

W

O

G

24 Nov

Accrington

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Plymouth and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Plymouth

22%

36%

25%

17%

Crewe

34%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.28 goals and Crewe to score 1.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.37 goals and Crewe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Plymouth to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.61

1

4.95

2-3

2.00

2

3.88

4+

4.48

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.69

3.55

2-3 goals

2.18

3.87

3.54

4+ goals

2.32

3.28

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.66

3.61

Un 1.5

2.23

3.69

3.55

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.82

2.99

Un 2.5

2.57

2.62

4.35

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.28

3.78

Un 3.5

2.20

3.80

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.81

2.61

3.84

No Goal

1.82

6.47

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

5.66

2.87

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

6.47

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.00

2.82

2.1

Draw

3.25

3.80

-4.5

Lincoln

2.42

2.61

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.19

1.96

5.4

Under 2.5

1.68

2.04

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G


Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

30%

29%

24%

17%

Lincoln

23%

38%

25%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.06 goals and Lincoln to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Lincoln to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.02

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.15

4+

3.76

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.02

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.72

3.61

2.20

2-3 goals

2.66

4.42

2.52

4+ goals

2.53

3.17

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.61

3.88

2.79

Un 1.5

3.72

3.61

2.20

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.08

2.63

Un 2.5

4.02

2.74

2.59

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.17

3.45

Un 3.5

2.94

4.11

2.40

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.78

3.58

No Goal

2.88

6.68

1.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.12

2.85

NG+Un 2.5

3.11

6.68

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bristol Rvs vs Charlton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Charlton for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol Rvs

3.00

2.80

2.4

Draw

3.33

3.76

-3.4

Charlton

2.38

2.65

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.04

1.98

1.5

Under 2.5

1.78

2.02

-6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (2.4 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance at home.
Bristol Rvs, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Blackpool

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Dec

Gillingham

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Nov

Swindon

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

1

4

L

O

G


Charlton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance as a guest.
Charlton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Rochdale

H

4

4

D

O

G

08 Jan

Accrington

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Hull

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Swindon

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

5

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Charlton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol Rvs

30%

30%

24%

16%

Charlton

23%

38%

26%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.1 goals and Charlton to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.27 goals and Charlton to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.00

1

5.52

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.85

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.00

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.57

3.62

2.25

2-3 goals

2.66

4.34

2.54

4+ goals

2.50

3.13

3.56

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.83

2.82

Un 1.5

3.57

3.62

2.25

Ov 2.5

2.18

6.08

2.66

Un 2.5

3.93

2.72

2.65

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.13

3.56

Un 3.5

2.91

4.07

2.43

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.76

3.60

No Goal

2.80

6.67

2.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

5.14

2.85

NG+Un 2.5

3.03

6.67

2.04


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Burton vs Ipswich at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burton

2.96

2.87

1.1

Draw

3.32

3.56

-2.0

Ipswich

2.39

2.70

-4.8

Over 2.5

2.00

2.15

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.82

1.87

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burton in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance at home.
Burton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Gillingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Oxford

H

1

5

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wigan

H

3

4

L

O

G

26 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

5

L

O

G

19 Dec

Doncaster

H

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G


Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Swindon

H

2

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Burton

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Portsmouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Plymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Nov

Shrewsbury

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burton

28%

36%

23%

13%

Ipswich

25%

37%

27%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 1.13 goals and Ipswich to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.21 goals and Ipswich to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.75

1

5.10

2-3

1.95

2

3.73

4+

4.52

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.75

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.93