Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Grimsby vs Southend at 16 January 2021
Barrow vs Scunthorpe at 16 January 2021
Walsall vs Oldham at 16 January 2021
Stevenage vs Tranmere at 16 January 2021
Newport County vs Salford at 16 January 2021
Mansfield vs Carlisle at 16 January 2021
Harrogate vs Exeter at 16 January 2021
Forest Green vs Port Vale at 16 January 2021
Colchester vs Cambridge at 16 January 2021
Bradford vs Crawley Town at 16 January 2021
Bolton vs Cheltenham at 16 January 2021
Leyton Orient vs Morecambe at 16 January 2021
Grimsby vs Southend at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Grimsby and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Grimsby |
2.28 |
2.46 |
-3.2 |
|
Draw |
3.26 |
3.68 |
-3.5 |
|
Southend |
3.24 |
3.11 |
1.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.18 |
0.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.85 |
-5.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Grimsby in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance at home.
Grimsby, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Southend |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Southend in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Grimsby and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Grimsby |
28% |
31% |
27% |
14% |
|
Southend |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.28 goals and Southend to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.28 goals and Southend to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.51 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.28 |
2.82 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.17 |
4.43 |
3.20 |
|
4+ goals |
2.73 |
2.99 |
3.35 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.85 |
3.24 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.28 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.22 |
2.84 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.72 |
3.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
2.99 |
3.35 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.92 |
3.05 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.67 |
3.79 |
|
No Goal |
2.22 |
5.80 |
2.64 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.20 |
2.94 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.80 |
2.69 |
Go to Top
Barrow vs Scunthorpe at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barrow |
2.16 |
2.24 |
-1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.42 |
3.66 |
-1.9 |
|
Scunthorpe |
3.38 |
3.56 |
-1.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.15 |
-3.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.87 |
-1.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barrow |
22% |
36% |
23% |
18% |
|
Scunthorpe |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.42 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.37 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.74 |
3.30 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.23 |
3.71 |
3.55 |
|
4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.50 |
4.00 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.64 |
3.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.74 |
3.30 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.25 |
3.09 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.57 |
4.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.50 |
4.00 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.72 |
3.46 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.62 |
4.02 |
|
No Goal |
1.88 |
6.49 |
3.18 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.00 |
2.98 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.49 |
3.08 |
Go to Top
Walsall vs Oldham at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Walsall |
2.21 |
2.23 |
-0.4 |
|
Draw |
3.44 |
3.62 |
-1.4 |
|
Oldham |
3.24 |
3.64 |
-3.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.13 |
-6.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.88 |
1.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Walsall in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Walsall |
20% |
40% |
19% |
20% |
|
Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.46 goals and Oldham to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Walsall to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.39 goals and Oldham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Walsall to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.62 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.08 |
4.12 |
3.63 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.46 |
3.26 |
3.47 |
|
4+ goals |
1.98 |
3.97 |
4.11 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.46 |
3.65 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.12 |
3.63 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
8.07 |
2.98 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.44 |
4.54 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.97 |
4.11 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.53 |
3.53 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.56 |
3.87 |
|
No Goal |
1.77 |
6.94 |
3.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.60 |
2.78 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.94 |
3.25 |
Go to Top
Stevenage vs Tranmere at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Tranmere for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stevenage |
2.91 |
2.90 |
0.1 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.70 |
-5.1 |
|
Tranmere |
2.57 |
2.60 |
-0.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.09 |
5.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.92 |
-10.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (0.1 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Tranmere in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance as a guest.
Tranmere, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Grimsby |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Tranmere.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stevenage |
31% |
31% |
26% |
12% |
|
Tranmere |
26% |
36% |
24% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.04 goals and Tranmere to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.2 goals and Tranmere to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.70 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.24 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.33 |