# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Montpellier vs Monaco at 15 January 2021**** Angers vs Paris SG at 16 January 2021**** Marseille vs Nimes at 16 January 2021**** Lorient vs Dijon at 17 January 2021**** Strasbourg vs St Etienne at 17 January 2021**** Nice vs Bordeaux at 17 January 2021**** Nantes vs Lens at 17 January 2021**** Lyon vs Metz at 17 January 2021**** Brest vs Rennes at 17 January 2021**** Lille vs Reims at 17 January 2021**

###
Montpellier vs Monaco at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Montpellier** and **Monaco** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **15 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Montpellier |
3.66 |
2.10 |
20.3 |

Draw |
3.75 |
3.97 |
-1.5 |

Monaco |
2.00 |
3.68 |
-22.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.44 |
-17.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.69 |
12.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier, Under 2.5 (20.3 %, 12.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** at home**.

Montpellier,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Lille |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Monaco** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monaco** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance** as a guest**.

Monaco,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lens |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Montpellier** and the red line for guest team, **Monaco. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Montpellier |
29% |
23% |
38% |
10% |

Monaco |
43% |
34% |
10% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Monaco** to score **1.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and the guest team **Monaco ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Monaco** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Montpellier ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.65 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.65 |

NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.27 |
2.58 |
3.27 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
6.52 |
5.58 |

4+ goals |
4.12 |
3.47 |
2.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
5.30 |
3.92 |

Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
2.58 |
3.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
8.04 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.93 |
4.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |
3.47 |
2.13 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.09 |
4.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
3.16 |
3.86 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
4.79 |
3.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.43 |
3.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
4.79 |
4.06 |

####
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###
Angers vs Paris SG at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Angers** and **Paris SG** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Angers |
8.85 |
3.02 |
21.8 |

Draw |
5.28 |
3.42 |
10.3 |

Paris SG |
1.36 |
2.65 |
-35.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.52 |
-23.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.66 |
18.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Angers, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.8 %, 10.3 %, 18.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Angers** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Angers** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance** at home**.

Angers,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Angers scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
Lille |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
St Etienne |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Lens |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** as a guest**.

Paris SG,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Brest |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Angers** and the red line for guest team, **Paris SG. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Angers |
35% |
39% |
17% |
9% |

Paris SG |
36% |
35% |
6% |
23% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Angers** to score **0.6 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **2.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **1.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Angers** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
2.60 |

1 |
3.83 |
2-3 |
2.40 |

2 |
4.57 |
4+ |
5.03 |

3 |
5.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |

Gg |
2.38 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |

NoG |
1.72 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.69 |
3.04 |
3.34 |

4+ goals |
5.10 |
6.42 |
1.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.18 |
3.67 |
2.43 |

Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.98 |
12.81 |
1.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.31 |
4.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.10 |
6.42 |
1.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.07 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
4.20 |
2.50 |
2.76 |

No Goal |
2.50 |
4.69 |
2.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.83 |
9.13 |
1.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
4.69 |
3.24 |

####
Go to Top

###
Marseille vs Nimes at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Nimes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
1.41 |
1.73 |
-13.1 |

Draw |
4.85 |
4.22 |
3.1 |

Nimes |
8.03 |
5.43 |
6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.08 |
-10.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.93 |
5.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Nimes, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 6 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Angers |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nimes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
St Etienne |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Nice |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Nimes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
19% |
26% |
31% |
24% |

Nimes |
44% |
33% |
17% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **2.17 ** goals and **Nimes** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **1.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Nimes** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.26 |
3.12 |
4.23 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
6.12 |
5.84 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.22 |
6.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |
4.83 |
6.06 |

Un 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.12 |
4.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
7.09 |
5.42 |

Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
3.07 |
5.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.22 |
6.64 |

Un 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.63 |
5.18 |

Goal-Goal |
2.05 |
2.95 |
5.78 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
6.55 |
5.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
5.38 |
4.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
6.55 |
4.57 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lorient vs Dijon at 17 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lorient** and **Dijon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **17 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lorient |
2.35 |
2.27 |
1.5 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.60 |
-2.3 |

Dijon |
3.17 |
3.56 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.46 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.68 |
4.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lorient, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lorient** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lorient** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance** at home**.

Lorient,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Nice |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Angers |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Dijon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dijon** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance** as a guest**.

Dijon,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Nice |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lorient** and the red line for guest team, **Dijon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lorient |
26% |
34% |
27% |
12% |

Dijon |
38% |
36% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lorient** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lorient** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Dijon** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.06 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.56 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.06 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.56 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.24 |