Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Montpellier vs Monaco at 15 January 2021
Angers vs Paris SG at 16 January 2021
Marseille vs Nimes at 16 January 2021
Lorient vs Dijon at 17 January 2021
Strasbourg vs St Etienne at 17 January 2021
Nice vs Bordeaux at 17 January 2021
Nantes vs Lens at 17 January 2021
Lyon vs Metz at 17 January 2021
Brest vs Rennes at 17 January 2021
Lille vs Reims at 17 January 2021
Montpellier vs Monaco at 15 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Monaco for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Montpellier |
3.66 |
2.10 |
20.3 |
|
Draw |
3.75 |
3.97 |
-1.5 |
|
Monaco |
2.00 |
3.68 |
-22.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.44 |
-17.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.69 |
12.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Under 2.5 (20.3 %, 12.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Montpellier in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Lille |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Monaco in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance as a guest.
Monaco, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Lens |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Monaco.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Montpellier |
29% |
23% |
38% |
10% |
|
Monaco |
43% |
34% |
10% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.09 goals and Monaco to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Monaco to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.29 goals and Monaco to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Montpellier to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.12 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.65 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
|
Gg |
2.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.65 |
|
NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.27 |
2.58 |
3.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.50 |
6.52 |
5.58 |
|
4+ goals |
4.12 |
3.47 |
2.13 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
5.30 |
3.92 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
2.58 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
8.04 |
2.83 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.93 |
4.67 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |
3.47 |
2.13 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.09 |
4.37 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
3.16 |
3.86 |
|
No Goal |
1.95 |
4.79 |
3.58 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.43 |
3.12 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
4.79 |
4.06 |
Go to Top
Angers vs Paris SG at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Angers and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Angers |
8.85 |
3.02 |
21.8 |
|
Draw |
5.28 |
3.42 |
10.3 |
|
Paris SG |
1.36 |
2.65 |
-35.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.52 |
-23.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.66 |
18.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Angers, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.8 %, 10.3 %, 18.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Angers in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance at home.
Angers, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Lille |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
St Etienne |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Lens |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Paris SG in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Brest |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Angers and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Angers |
35% |
39% |
17% |
9% |
|
Paris SG |
36% |
35% |
6% |
23% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 0.6 goals and Paris SG to score 2.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 1.01 goals and Paris SG to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
2.60 |
|
1 |
3.83 |
2-3 |
2.40 |
|
2 |
4.57 |
4+ |
5.03 |
|
3 |
5.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
|
4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
|
5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |
|
Gg |
2.38 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |
|
NoG |
1.72 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.69 |
3.04 |
3.34 |
|
4+ goals |
5.10 |
6.42 |
1.54 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.18 |
3.67 |
2.43 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.10 |
3.13 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.98 |
12.81 |
1.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.31 |
4.19 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.10 |
6.42 |
1.54 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.07 |
3.23 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.20 |
2.50 |
2.76 |
|
No Goal |
2.50 |
4.69 |
2.58 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.83 |
9.13 |
1.86 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
4.69 |
3.24 |
Go to Top
Marseille vs Nimes at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Nimes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Marseille |
1.41 |
1.73 |
-13.1 |
|
Draw |
4.85 |
4.22 |
3.1 |
|
Nimes |
8.03 |
5.43 |
6.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.08 |
-10.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.93 |
5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nimes, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 6 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Marseille in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Angers |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Nimes in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance as a guest.
Nimes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
St Etienne |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Nice |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
04 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Nimes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Marseille |
19% |
26% |
31% |
24% |
|
Nimes |
44% |
33% |
17% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 2.17 goals and Nimes to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 1.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.59 goals and Nimes to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.82 |
|
1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
1.92 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.26 |
3.12 |
4.23 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.50 |
6.12 |
5.84 |
|
4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.22 |
6.64 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |
4.83 |
6.06 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.12 |
4.23 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
7.09 |
5.42 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
3.07 |
5.46 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.22 |
6.64 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.63 |
5.18 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.05 |
2.95 |
5.78 |
|
No Goal |
1.53 |
6.55 |
5.19 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
5.38 |
4.69 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
6.55 |
4.57 |
Go to Top
Lorient vs Dijon at 17 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lorient and Dijon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 17 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lorient |
2.35 |
2.27 |
1.5 |
|
Draw |
3.32 |
3.60 |
-2.3 |
|
Dijon |
3.17 |
3.56 |
-3.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.46 |
-7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.68 |
4.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Lorient, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lorient in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance at home.
Lorient, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Nice |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Angers |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Dijon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance as a guest.
Dijon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Nice |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lorient and the red line for guest team, Dijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lorient |
26% |
34% |
27% |
12% |
|
Dijon |
38% |
36% |
15% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.33 goals and Dijon to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.25 goals and Dijon to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.06 |
|
1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.56 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
|
4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
|
Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.56 |
|
NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.24 |