2021 01 15 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fulham vs Chelsea at 16 January 2021
Leeds vs Brighton at 16 January 2021
Leicester vs Southampton at 16 January 2021
Wolves vs West Brom at 16 January 2021
West Ham vs Burnley at 16 January 2021
Sheffield United vs Tottenham at 17 January 2021
Man City vs Crystal Palace at 17 January 2021
Aston Villa vs Everton at 17 January 2021
Liverpool vs Man United at 17 January 2021
Arsenal vs Newcastle at 18 January 2021


Fulham vs Chelsea at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fulham

6.26

3.50

12.6

Draw

4.36

4.00

2.1

Chelsea

1.54

2.16

-18.6

Over 2.5

1.77

1.89

-3.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.13

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fulham, Draw (12.6 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fulham in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

Tottenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Southampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Man City

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Nov

Leicester

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Nov

Everton

H

2

3

L

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G

28 Dec

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

West Ham

H

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Leeds

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fulham

36%

24%

32%

9%

Chelsea

22%

31%

25%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 0.72 goals and Chelsea to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.14 goals and Chelsea to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

4.18

1

6.13

2-3

2.04

2

4.31

4+

3.66

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.18

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.60

3.14

2.15

2-3 goals

2.63

6.52

2.14

4+ goals

5.57

2.76

2.18

Ov 1.5

3.24

4.38

2.16

Un 1.5

4.60

3.14

2.15

Ov 2.5

3.17

5.35

2.01

Un 2.5

3.92

3.12

2.35

Ov 3.5

5.57

2.76

2.18

Un 3.5

3.06

4.82

2.15

Goal-Goal

3.43

2.91

2.74

No Goal

3.55

6.50

1.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.92

4.36

2.34

NG+Un 2.5

3.30

6.50

1.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leeds vs Brighton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

2.14

2.24

-2.1

Draw

3.66

3.70

-0.3

Brighton

3.38

3.53

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.63

2.04

-12.3

Under 2.5

2.33

1.96

8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Tottenham

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N

27 Dec

Burnley

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Man United

A

2

6

L

O

G

16 Dec

Newcastle

H

5

2

W

O

G

11 Dec

West Ham

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Nov

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N


Brighton in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Jan

Man City

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Wolves

H

3

3

D

O

G

29 Dec

Arsenal

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

West Ham

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Sheffield United

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Fulham

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Leicester

A

0

3

L

O

N

07 Dec

Southampton

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

22%

41%

9%

28%

Brighton

34%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.7 goals and Brighton to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.42 goals and Brighton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.44

1

4.63

2-3

2.23

2

4.57

4+

3.85

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.44

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.88

3.68

2-3 goals

2.86

3.08

3.08

4+ goals

1.71

5.20

4.48

Ov 1.5

2.29

3.62

3.48

Un 1.5

2.12

3.88

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.76

9.80

3.02

Un 2.5

3.04

2.31

4.21

Ov 3.5

1.71

5.20

4.48

Un 3.5

2.52

3.35

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.64

3.80

No Goal

1.85

6.44

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

7.42

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.44

3.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leicester vs Southampton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

1.79

2.73

-19.2

Draw

3.80

3.62

1.3

Southampton

4.72

2.79

14.7

Over 2.5

1.86

2.12

-6.6

Under 2.5

2.00

1.89

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 14.7 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Jan

Newcastle

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Crystal Palace

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Man United

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Tottenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Brighton

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Nov

Fulham

H

1

2

L

O

G


Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

West Ham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Fulham

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Dec

Brighton

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

27%

40%

16%

17%

Southampton

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.75 goals and Southampton to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.24 goals and Southampton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.47

1

4.76

2-3

2.12

2

4.15

4+

4.17

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.47

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.69

3.13

2-3 goals

3.08

3.42

2.61

4+ goals

2.53

4.00

2.82

Ov 1.5

2.87

3.60

2.68

Un 1.5

2.44

3.69

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.34

7.85

2.24

Un 2.5

3.21

2.45

3.57

Ov 3.5

2.53

4.00

2.82

Un 3.5

2.80

3.52

2.78

Goal-Goal

3.45

2.62

3.05

No Goal

2.23

6.18

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

6.33

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

6.18

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wolves vs West Brom at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

1.63

1.64

-0.4

Draw

3.71

4.33

-3.9

West Brom

6.47

6.33

0.3

Over 2.5

2.24

1.97

6.1

Under 2.5

1.68

2.03

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Brighton

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Dec

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Burnley

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Chelsea

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Liverpool

A

0

4

L

O

N


West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Arsenal

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Dec

Leeds

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Dec

Liverpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Man City

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

5

L

O

G

28 Nov

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

14%

34%

21%

31%

West Brom

44%

36%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.63 goals and West Brom to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.7 goals and West Brom to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Wolves to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

3.88

1

5.03

2-3

1.98

2

4.26

4+

4.20

3

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.88

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals