# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fulham vs Chelsea at 16 January 2021**** Leeds vs Brighton at 16 January 2021**** Leicester vs Southampton at 16 January 2021**** Wolves vs West Brom at 16 January 2021**** West Ham vs Burnley at 16 January 2021**** Sheffield United vs Tottenham at 17 January 2021**** Man City vs Crystal Palace at 17 January 2021**** Aston Villa vs Everton at 17 January 2021**** Liverpool vs Man United at 17 January 2021**** Arsenal vs Newcastle at 18 January 2021**

###
Fulham vs Chelsea at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
6.26 |
3.50 |
12.6 |

Draw |
4.36 |
4.00 |
2.1 |

Chelsea |
1.54 |
2.16 |
-18.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.89 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.13 |
-1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fulham, Draw (12.6 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Nov |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
36% |
24% |
32% |
9% |

Chelsea |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **0.72 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **1.27** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.60 |
3.14 |
2.15 |

2-3 goals |
2.63 |
6.52 |
2.14 |

4+ goals |
5.57 |
2.76 |
2.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.24 |
4.38 |
2.16 |

Un 1.5 |
4.60 |
3.14 |
2.15 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.17 |
5.35 |
2.01 |

Un 2.5 |
3.92 |
3.12 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.57 |
2.76 |
2.18 |

Un 3.5 |
3.06 |
4.82 |
2.15 |

Goal-Goal |
3.43 |
2.91 |
2.74 |

No Goal |
3.55 |
6.50 |
1.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.92 |
4.36 |
2.34 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.30 |
6.50 |
1.98 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leeds vs Brighton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leeds** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leeds |
2.14 |
2.24 |
-2.1 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.70 |
-0.3 |

Brighton |
3.38 |
3.53 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.04 |
-12.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.33 |
1.96 |
8.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** at home**.

Leeds,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Man United |
A |
2 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leeds** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leeds |
22% |
41% |
9% |
28% |

Brighton |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **Leeds ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leeds** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Leeds ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.44 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.57 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
3.88 |
3.68 |

2-3 goals |
2.86 |
3.08 |
3.08 |

4+ goals |
1.71 |
5.20 |
4.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.62 |
3.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.88 |
3.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
9.80 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.31 |
4.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.71 |
5.20 |
4.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.35 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.64 |
3.80 |

No Goal |
1.85 |
6.44 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
7.42 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.44 |
3.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leicester vs Southampton at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
1.79 |
2.73 |
-19.2 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.62 |
1.3 |

Southampton |
4.72 |
2.79 |
14.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.12 |
-6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.89 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (1.3 %, 14.7 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Tottenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
27% |
40% |
16% |
17% |

Southampton |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **0.88** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.69 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
3.08 |
3.42 |
2.61 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
4.00 |
2.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.87 |
3.60 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.69 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
7.85 |
2.24 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.45 |
3.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
4.00 |
2.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.80 |
3.52 |
2.78 |

Goal-Goal |
3.45 |
2.62 |
3.05 |

No Goal |
2.23 |
6.18 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.33 |
2.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.18 |
2.64 |

####
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###
Wolves vs West Brom at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
1.63 |
1.64 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.71 |
4.33 |
-3.9 |

West Brom |
6.47 |
6.33 |
0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
1.97 |
6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.03 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Brom, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
14% |
34% |
21% |
31% |

West Brom |
44% |
36% |
14% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.63 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Wolves ** to win by **1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.7 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Wolves ** to win by **0.88** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |