# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sp Lisbon vs Rio Ave at 15 January 2021**** Guimaraes vs Farense at 16 January 2021**** Pacos Ferreira vs Sp Braga at 16 January 2021**** Porto vs Benfica at 16 January 2021**** Tondela vs Boavista at 16 January 2021**** Gil Vicente vs Maritimo at 17 January 2021**** Nacional vs Moreirense at 17 January 2021**** Santa Clara vs Famalicao at 17 January 2021**** Portimonense vs Belenenses at 18 January 2021**

###
Sp Lisbon vs Rio Ave at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Lisbon** and **Rio Ave** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **15 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Lisbon |
1.47 |
1.59 |
-5.1 |

Draw |
4.21 |
4.42 |
-1.1 |

Rio Ave |
6.96 |
6.94 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.33 |
-8.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.75 |
4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** at home**.

Sp Lisbon,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** as a guest**.

Rio Ave,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Lisbon** and the red line for guest team, **Rio Ave. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Lisbon |
18% |
31% |
26% |
25% |

Rio Ave |
56% |
24% |
17% |
2% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.9 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.28** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.92** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.16 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.95 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.16 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
166.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |

NoG |
1.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.83 |
3.16 |
7.35 |

2-3 goals |
1.46 |
6.85 |
5.91 |

4+ goals |
1.62 |
3.29 |
12.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |
5.41 |
6.82 |

Un 1.5 |
1.83 |
3.16 |
7.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
8.41 |
6.13 |

Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.25 |
7.79 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.62 |
3.29 |
12.92 |

Un 3.5 |
1.58 |
4.74 |
6.38 |

Goal-Goal |
2.14 |
2.86 |
5.45 |

No Goal |
1.38 |
6.38 |
8.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
5.59 |
4.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
6.38 |
6.77 |

####
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###
Guimaraes vs Farense at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Guimaraes** and **Farense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Guimaraes |
1.77 |
1.86 |
-2.7 |

Draw |
3.64 |
3.92 |
-2.0 |

Farense |
4.54 |
4.81 |
-1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.17 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.85 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** at home**.

Guimaraes,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Santa Clara |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** as a guest**.

Farense,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Guimaraes** and the red line for guest team, **Farense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Guimaraes |
20% |
32% |
25% |
23% |

Farense |
41% |
38% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Farense** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Farense** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.49 |
3.72 |

2-3 goals |
1.71 |
4.12 |
5.86 |

4+ goals |
1.84 |
4.10 |
4.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.11 |
5.47 |

Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.49 |
3.72 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
8.85 |
4.47 |

Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.65 |
5.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.10 |
4.73 |

Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
3.86 |
4.83 |

Goal-Goal |
2.22 |
2.73 |
5.44 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
6.36 |
4.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
6.77 |
4.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.36 |
4.00 |

####
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###
Pacos Ferreira vs Sp Braga at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Sp Braga** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
4.03 |
3.64 |
2.7 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.76 |
-1.0 |

Sp Braga |
1.88 |
2.18 |
-7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.34 |
-11.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.75 |
6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Oct |
Porto |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sp Braga** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Braga** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Braga,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Boavista |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Benfica |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Braga. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
37% |
38% |
17% |
8% |

Sp Braga |
30% |
23% |
33% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **0.71** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **0.96 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.85 |
0-1 |
3.18 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
2.78 |
3.65 |

2-3 goals |
4.37 |
5.72 |
1.68 |

4+ goals |
4.09 |
2.81 |
2.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.29 |
4.45 |
1.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
2.78 |
3.65 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.91 |
6.36 |
1.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
2.87 |
2.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.09 |
2.81 |
2.51 |

Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
4.06 |
2.12 |

Goal-Goal |
5.20 |
2.84 |
2.20 |

No Goal |
2.95 |
4.98 |
2.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.17 |
5.22 |
1.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
4.98 |
2.34 |

####
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###
Porto vs Benfica at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Porto** and **Benfica** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Porto |
2.16 |
4.42 |
-23.7 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.72 |
-2.1 |

Benfica |
3.35 |
1.98 |
20.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.79 |
-20.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.56 |
15.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Benfica, Under 2.5 (20.7 %, 15.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** at home**.

Porto,** at home**, had 6 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 85.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Benfica** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benfica** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance** as a guest**.

Benfica,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Porto** and the red line for guest team, **Benfica. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Porto |
46% |
38% |
14% |
2% |

Benfica |
37% |
10% |
44% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Porto** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Benfica** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Porto ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Porto** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Benfica** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **1.99** goals in the game and the guest team **Benfica ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.95 |
0-1 |
2.84 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.48 |
4+ |
7.87 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |

4 |
10.00 |
Un 1.5 |
2.84 |

5 |
40.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |

6+ |
500.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.56 |

Gg |
2.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
7.87 |

NoG |
1.52 |
Un 3.5 |
1.15 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |