Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sp Lisbon vs Rio Ave at 15 January 2021
Guimaraes vs Farense at 16 January 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Sp Braga at 16 January 2021
Porto vs Benfica at 16 January 2021
Tondela vs Boavista at 16 January 2021
Gil Vicente vs Maritimo at 17 January 2021
Nacional vs Moreirense at 17 January 2021
Santa Clara vs Famalicao at 17 January 2021
Portimonense vs Belenenses at 18 January 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Rio Ave at 15 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sp Lisbon |
1.47 |
1.59 |
-5.1 |
|
Draw |
4.21 |
4.42 |
-1.1 |
|
Rio Ave |
6.96 |
6.94 |
0.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.33 |
-8.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.75 |
4.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Guimaraes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Nov |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Moreirense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sp Lisbon |
18% |
31% |
26% |
25% |
|
Rio Ave |
56% |
24% |
17% |
2% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.9 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.28 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.58 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.16 |
|
1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.95 |
|
3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
8.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.16 |
|
5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
|
6+ |
166.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |
|
NoG |
1.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.83 |
3.16 |
7.35 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.46 |
6.85 |
5.91 |
|
4+ goals |
1.62 |
3.29 |
12.92 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.50 |
5.41 |
6.82 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.83 |
3.16 |
7.35 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
8.41 |
6.13 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.25 |
7.79 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.62 |
3.29 |
12.92 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.58 |
4.74 |
6.38 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.14 |
2.86 |
5.45 |
|
No Goal |
1.38 |
6.38 |
8.29 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
5.59 |
4.32 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.54 |
6.38 |
6.77 |
Go to Top
Guimaraes vs Farense at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Guimaraes |
1.77 |
1.86 |
-2.7 |
|
Draw |
3.64 |
3.92 |
-2.0 |
|
Farense |
4.54 |
4.81 |
-1.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.17 |
-4.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.85 |
-0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Guimaraes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Santa Clara |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Guimaraes |
20% |
32% |
25% |
23% |
|
Farense |
41% |
38% |
13% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.63 goals and Farense to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.5 goals and Farense to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.45 |
|
1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.69 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.49 |
3.72 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.71 |
4.12 |
5.86 |
|
4+ goals |
1.84 |
4.10 |
4.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.11 |
5.47 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.49 |
3.72 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
8.85 |
4.47 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.65 |
5.15 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.10 |
4.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
3.86 |
4.83 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.22 |
2.73 |
5.44 |
|
No Goal |
1.63 |
6.36 |
4.36 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
6.77 |
4.05 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.36 |
4.00 |
Go to Top
Pacos Ferreira vs Sp Braga at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
4.03 |
3.64 |
2.7 |
|
Draw |
3.63 |
3.76 |
-1.0 |
|
Sp Braga |
1.88 |
2.18 |
-7.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.34 |
-11.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.75 |
6.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Oct |
Porto |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Sp Braga in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Boavista |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Benfica |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
37% |
38% |
17% |
8% |
|
Sp Braga |
30% |
23% |
33% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 0.95 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 0.96 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.85 |
0-1 |
3.18 |
|
1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.32 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |
|
4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |
|
NoG |
1.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.73 |
2.78 |
3.65 |
|
2-3 goals |
4.37 |
5.72 |
1.68 |
|
4+ goals |
4.09 |
2.81 |
2.51 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
4.29 |
4.45 |
1.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
2.78 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.91 |
6.36 |
1.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.46 |
2.87 |
2.76 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.09 |
2.81 |
2.51 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
4.06 |
2.12 |
|
Goal-Goal |
5.20 |
2.84 |
2.20 |
|
No Goal |
2.95 |
4.98 |
2.17 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.17 |
5.22 |
1.76 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
4.98 |
2.34 |
Go to Top
Porto vs Benfica at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Porto and Benfica for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Porto |
2.16 |
4.42 |
-23.7 |
|
Draw |
3.45 |
3.72 |
-2.1 |
|
Benfica |
3.35 |
1.98 |
20.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.79 |
-20.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.56 |
15.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Benfica, Under 2.5 (20.7 %, 15.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Porto in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance at home.
Porto, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 85.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Nov |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Oct |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Benfica in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance as a guest.
Benfica, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Nov |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Porto and the red line for guest team, Benfica.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Porto |
46% |
38% |
14% |
2% |
|
Benfica |
37% |
10% |
44% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 1.56 goals and Benfica to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 0.73 goals and Benfica to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and the guest team Benfica to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
5.95 |
0-1 |
2.84 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.48 |
4+ |
7.87 |
|
3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |
|
4 |
10.00 |
Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
|
5 |
40.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |
|
6+ |
500.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.56 |
|
Gg |
2.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
7.87 |
|
NoG |
1.52 |
Un 3.5 |
1.15 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |