2021 01 15 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lazio vs Roma at 15 January 2021
Bologna vs Verona at 16 January 2021
Sampdoria vs Udinese at 16 January 2021
Torino vs Spezia at 16 January 2021
Crotone vs Benevento at 17 January 2021
Inter vs Juventus at 17 January 2021
Napoli vs Fiorentina at 17 January 2021
Sassuolo vs Parma at 17 January 2021
Atalanta vs Genoa at 17 January 2021
Cagliari vs Milan at 18 January 2021


Lazio vs Roma at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lazio and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lazio

2.92

2.95

-0.3

Draw

3.63

3.62

0.1

Roma

2.41

2.60

-3.0

Over 2.5

1.64

2.29

-17.3

Under 2.5

2.31

1.77

13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 13.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lazio in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance at home.
Lazio, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Fiorentina

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Milan

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Napoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Verona

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G


Roma in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Inter

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Crotone

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Cagliari

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Atalanta

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Dec

Torino

H

3

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Bologna

A

5

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Sassuolo

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lazio and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lazio

35%

30%

25%

10%

Roma

40%

13%

33%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.35 goals and Roma to score 1.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.1 goals and Roma to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.09

0-1

3.24

1

5.95

2-3

2.10

2

3.92

4+

4.61

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.24

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.56

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.63

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

2.19

6.72

2-3 goals

2.75

11.90

1.81

4+ goals

4.72

2.26

2.89

Ov 1.5

3.16

5.10

2.05

Un 1.5

2.53

2.19

6.72

Ov 2.5

3.68

4.56

1.96

Un 2.5

2.54

3.12

3.50

Ov 3.5

4.72

2.26

2.89

Un 3.5

2.66

4.34

2.54

Goal-Goal

4.94

2.87

2.23

No Goal

2.34

4.34

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.43

3.65

2.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

4.34

3.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Bologna vs Verona at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Verona for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bologna

2.45

2.72

-4.1

Draw

3.21

3.77

-4.6

Verona

3.17

2.72

5.2

Over 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.95

2.00

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona (5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bologna in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Atalanta

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Roma

H

1

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G


Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance as a guest.
Verona, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Crotone

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Spezia

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Inter

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sampdoria

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Lazio

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Verona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bologna

31%

25%

31%

13%

Verona

32%

25%

27%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.4 goals and Verona to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.27 goals and Verona to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.89

1

6.29

2-3

2.09

2

4.12

4+

3.80

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.89

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.17

2.62

3.29

2-3 goals

2.22

7.48

2.41

4+ goals

3.76

2.55

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.59

4.44

2.57

Un 1.5

3.17

2.62

3.29

Ov 2.5

2.64

4.84

2.41

Un 2.5

2.81

3.09

3.12

Ov 3.5

3.76

2.55

2.92

Un 3.5

2.48

4.54

2.66

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.83

2.99

No Goal

2.40

5.38

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.78

3.96

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

5.38

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sampdoria vs Udinese at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

2.92

2.34

8.5

Draw

3.28

3.15

1.3

Udinese

2.56

3.91

-13.5

Over 2.5

2.05

2.21

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.80

1.83

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria, Draw (8.5 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Jan

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Inter

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Sassuolo

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Crotone

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Napoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G


Udinese in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Napoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Juventus

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Benevento

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Torino

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Nov

Lazio

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

31%

10%

45%

13%

Udinese

46%

11%

33%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.15 goals and Udinese to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.41 goals and Udinese to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.04

0-1

4.44

1

12.05

2-3

2.00

2

3.10

4+

3.61

3

5.68

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.44

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.67

Ov 3.5

3.61

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.59

1.58

6.62

2-3 goals

1.56

41.58

2.99

4+ goals

4.69

1.69

5.13

Ov 1.5

2.05

4.41

3.51

Un 1.5

4.59

1.58

6.62

Ov 2.5

2.66

2.76

3.81

Un 2.5

2.12

3.56

4.03

Ov 3.5

4.69

1.69

5.13

Un 3.5

1.96

4.70

3.60

Goal-Goal

3.43

2.12

4.20

No Goal

1.97

4.42

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.32

2.21

4.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

4.42

3.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Torino vs Spezia at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.05

3.03

-15.8

Draw

3.36

3.26

0.9

Spezia

3.96

2.75

11.1

Over 2.5

1.87

2.33

-10.6

Under 2.5

1.95

1.75

5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 11.1 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Udinese

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G


Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Jan

Sampdoria

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Napoli

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Verona

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Bologna

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lazio

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

38%

20%

35%

8%

Spezia

42%

10%

34%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.58 goals and Spezia to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.13 goals and Spezia to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.37

0-1

3.62

1

8.40

2-3

2.07

2

3.40

4+

4.12

3

5.32

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.62

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.75

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG