2021 01 15 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vicenza vs Frosinone at 15 January 2021
Chievo vs Virtus Entella at 15 January 2021
Reggina vs Lecce at 16 January 2021
Cittadella vs Ascoli at 16 January 2021
Monza vs Cosenza at 16 January 2021
Pordenone vs Venezia at 16 January 2021
Pisa vs Brescia at 16 January 2021
Empoli vs Salernitana at 17 January 2021
Pescara vs Cremonese at 17 January 2021
Spal vs Reggiana at 18 January 2021


Vicenza vs Frosinone at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vicenza and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vicenza

2.83

2.56

3.7

Draw

2.93

3.61

-6.4

Frosinone

3.00

3.00

0.0

Over 2.5

2.20

2.18

0.4

Under 2.5

1.72

1.85

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Vicenza, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vicenza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance at home.
Vicenza, at home, had one win, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Brescia

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Lecce

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Dec

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Pescara

A

3

2

W

O

G

06 Dec

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G


Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Spal

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Dec

Pordenone

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Reggiana

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G

28 Nov

Brescia

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vicenza and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vicenza

26%

35%

27%

12%

Frosinone

30%

36%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.17 goals and Frosinone to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.25 goals and Frosinone to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.60

1

5.00

2-3

1.99

2

3.80

4+

4.59

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.60

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.56

2.99

2-3 goals

2.34

3.96

3.12

4+ goals

3.21

3.07

2.76

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.64

3.00

Un 1.5

2.60

3.56

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.45

2.46

Un 2.5

2.86

2.64

3.68

Ov 3.5

3.21

3.07

2.76

Un 3.5

2.43

3.81

3.07

Goal-Goal

3.13

2.61

3.37

No Goal

2.15

6.19

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

5.48

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.19

2.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chievo vs Virtus Entella at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chievo and Virtus Entella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 15 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chievo

1.64

1.96

-10.0

Draw

3.61

3.82

-1.5

Virtus Entella

5.56

4.41

4.7

Over 2.5

2.17

2.24

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.70

1.81

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chievo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance at home.
Chievo, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Cremonese

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Venezia

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Pisa

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Spal

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Dec

Reggina

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Frosinone

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Nov

Lecce

H

1

2

L

O

G


Virtus Entella in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance as a guest.
Virtus Entella, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Pescara

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Dec

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Monza

A

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Empoli

H

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chievo and the red line for guest team, Virtus Entella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chievo

19%

40%

21%

21%

Virtus Entella

41%

33%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.62 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chievo to score 1.44 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Chievo to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.29

1

4.41

2-3

2.04

2

4.00

4+

4.81

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.29

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.84

3.95

4.90

2-3 goals

2.04

3.68

4.22

4+ goals

1.96

3.92

4.24

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.75

4.22

Un 1.5

1.84

3.95

4.90

Ov 2.5

1.71

8.43

3.36

Un 2.5

2.22

2.64

5.89

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.92

4.24

Un 3.5

1.96

3.78

4.46

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.58

4.06

No Goal

1.55

6.78

4.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

6.53

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

6.78

4.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reggina vs Lecce at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggina and Lecce for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggina

3.36

2.53

9.8

Draw

3.23

3.72

-4.1

Lecce

2.20

2.99

-12.0

Over 2.5

1.88

2.07

-4.9

Under 2.5

1.93

1.93

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggina (9.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance at home.
Reggina, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Dec

Venezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Dec

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Brescia

H

2

1

W

O

G


Lecce in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance as a guest.
Lecce, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Monza

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Dec

Cittadella

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Pisa

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Salernitana

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Frosinone

H

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Venezia

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggina and the red line for guest team, Lecce.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggina

26%

30%

32%

11%

Lecce

29%

36%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.09 goals and Lecce to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Lecce to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.29 goals and Lecce to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.86

1

5.49

2-3

1.97

2

3.86

4+

4.31

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

3.36

2.76

2-3 goals

2.08

4.70

3.26

4+ goals

3.63

2.80

2.73

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.87

3.07

Un 1.5

2.94

3.36

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.26

5.80

2.60

Un 2.5

2.83

2.80

3.45

Ov 3.5

3.63

2.80

2.73

Un 3.5

2.31

4.15

3.07

Goal-Goal

2.89

2.72

3.49

No Goal

2.22

6.22

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

4.96

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.22

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cittadella vs Ascoli at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cittadella and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cittadella

1.48

1.90

-14.9

Draw

4.24

4.00

1.4

Ascoli

6.62

4.44

7.4

Over 2.5

1.83

2.16

-8.3

Under 2.5

1.98

1.86

3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 7.4 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cittadella in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance at home.
Cittadella, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Reggiana

A

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Lecce

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Reggina

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Vicenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Spal

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Salernitana

A

0

1

L

U

N


Ascoli in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Jan

Reggina

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Empoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Spal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Monza

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Cremonese

A

3

3

D

O

G

08 Dec

Pisa

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cittadella and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cittadella

17%

41%

18%

23%

Ascoli

44%

29%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.96 goals and Ascoli to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.48 goals and Ascoli to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.28

1

4.37

2-3

2.10

2

4.33

4+

4.61

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.28

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.71