# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Vicenza vs Frosinone at 15 January 2021**** Chievo vs Virtus Entella at 15 January 2021**** Reggina vs Lecce at 16 January 2021**** Cittadella vs Ascoli at 16 January 2021**** Monza vs Cosenza at 16 January 2021**** Pordenone vs Venezia at 16 January 2021**** Pisa vs Brescia at 16 January 2021**** Empoli vs Salernitana at 17 January 2021**** Pescara vs Cremonese at 17 January 2021**** Spal vs Reggiana at 18 January 2021**

###
Vicenza vs Frosinone at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vicenza** and **Frosinone** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vicenza |
2.83 |
2.56 |
3.7 |

Draw |
2.93 |
3.61 |
-6.4 |

Frosinone |
3.00 |
3.00 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.18 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.85 |
-4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vicenza, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** at home**.

Vicenza,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Pescara |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** as a guest**.

Frosinone,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chievo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Brescia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vicenza** and the red line for guest team, **Frosinone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vicenza |
26% |
35% |
27% |
12% |

Frosinone |
30% |
36% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Frosinone** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Frosinone** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.56 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.34 |
3.96 |
3.12 |

4+ goals |
3.21 |
3.07 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.64 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.56 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.45 |
2.46 |

Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.64 |
3.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
3.07 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.81 |
3.07 |

Goal-Goal |
3.13 |
2.61 |
3.37 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.19 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.48 |
2.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.19 |
2.82 |

####
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###
Chievo vs Virtus Entella at 15 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Chievo** and **Virtus Entella** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Chievo |
1.64 |
1.96 |
-10.0 |

Draw |
3.61 |
3.82 |
-1.5 |

Virtus Entella |
5.56 |
4.41 |
4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.24 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.81 |
-3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** at home**.

Chievo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** as a guest**.

Virtus Entella,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Chievo** and the red line for guest team, **Virtus Entella. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Chievo |
19% |
40% |
21% |
21% |

Virtus Entella |
41% |
33% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Chievo** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **0.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Chievo ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Chievo** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Chievo ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.41 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.84 |
3.95 |
4.90 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
3.68 |
4.22 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.92 |
4.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
3.75 |
4.22 |

Un 1.5 |
1.84 |
3.95 |
4.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
8.43 |
3.36 |

Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.64 |
5.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.92 |
4.24 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.78 |
4.46 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.58 |
4.06 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
6.78 |
4.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.53 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.78 |
4.48 |

####
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###
Reggina vs Lecce at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggina** and **Lecce** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggina |
3.36 |
2.53 |
9.8 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.72 |
-4.1 |

Lecce |
2.20 |
2.99 |
-12.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.07 |
-4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.93 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggina (9.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggina** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance** at home**.

Reggina,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Lecce** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lecce** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance** as a guest**.

Lecce,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggina** and the red line for guest team, **Lecce. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggina |
26% |
30% |
32% |
11% |

Lecce |
29% |
36% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Lecce** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the guest team **Lecce ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Lecce** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.36 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.70 |
3.26 |

4+ goals |
3.63 |
2.80 |
2.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.87 |
3.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.36 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.80 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.80 |
3.45 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.63 |
2.80 |
2.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
4.15 |
3.07 |

Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.72 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
2.22 |
6.22 |
2.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
4.96 |
2.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.22 |
2.73 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cittadella vs Ascoli at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cittadella** and **Ascoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cittadella |
1.48 |
1.90 |
-14.9 |

Draw |
4.24 |
4.00 |
1.4 |

Ascoli |
6.62 |
4.44 |
7.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.16 |
-8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.86 |
3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 7.4 %, 3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cittadella** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cittadella** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance** at home**.

Cittadella,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Frosinone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Reggina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Spal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Ascoli** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ascoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Ascoli,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Spal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cittadella** and the red line for guest team, **Ascoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cittadella |
17% |
41% |
18% |
23% |

Ascoli |
44% |
29% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.96 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Cittadella ** to win by **1.3** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Cittadella ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
4.37 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.71 |