BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Zaragoza vs Fuenlabrada at 16 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Gipuzkoa at 16 January 2021
Manresa vs Unicaja Malaga at 16 January 2021
Gran Canaria vs Tenerife at 16 January 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia at 17 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Zaragoza vs Fuenlabrada at 16 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Zaragoza |
1.41 |
2.13 |
|
Fuenlabrada |
2.9 |
1.89 |
|
Zaragoza HC |
-6.5 |
2.00 |
|
Fuenlabrada HC |
+6.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
173.5 |
164.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 2 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
96 |
95 |
5 |
12 |
W 1 |
94 |
101 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
Baskonia |
L |
89 |
92 |
4 |
12 |
L 2 |
94 |
91 |
|
Dec 20 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
L |
91 |
102 |
4 |
11 |
L 1 |
88 |
104 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
105 |
76 |
4 |
10 |
W 2 |
98 |
78 |
|
Dec 11 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
98 |
83 |
3 |
10 |
W 1 |
102 |
86 |
|
Dec 5 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
L |
81 |
88 |
2 |
10 |
L 6 |
79 |
86 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
85 |
97 |
2 |
9 |
L 5 |
93 |
93 |
|
Nov 14 |
A |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
L |
81 |
82 |
2 |
8 |
L 4 |
80 |
82 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
67 |
83 |
5 |
12 |
L 2 |
73 |
79 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |
Coosur Real Betis |
L |
79 |
86 |
5 |
11 |
L 1 |
78 |
92 |
|
Dec 22 |
A |
Unicaja |
W |
90 |
84 |
5 |
10 |
W 1 |
89 |
80 |
|
Dec 20 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
L |
70 |
74 |
4 |
10 |
L 4 |
65 |
76 |
|
Dec 13 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
71 |
87 |
4 |
9 |
L 3 |
71 |
93 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
61 |
68 |
4 |
8 |
L 2 |
62 |
64 |
|
Nov 21 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
L |
81 |
84 |
4 |
7 |
L 1 |
81 |
84 |
|
Nov 14 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
82 |
81 |
4 |
6 |
W 1 |
74 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Fuenlabrada in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 86 points and the Fuenlabrada 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Zaragoza |
Fuenlabrada |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.51 |
|
ASS |
15.90 |
14.30 |
|
DRB |
23.10 |
21.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.26 |
1.01 |
|
TRB |
30.20 |
31.70 |
|
FTM |
14.30 |
15.40 |
|
BL |
2.50 |
3.20 |
|
FTA |
20.20 |
21.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.50 |
21.40 |
|
ST |
6.90 |
8.50 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.60 |
14.10 |
|
Ftper |
0.71 |
0.73 |
|
ORBper |
0.31 |
0.46 |
|
ORB |
7.10 |
10.00 |
Go to Top
Joventut Badalona vs Gipuzkoa at 16 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Joventut Badalona |
1.09 |
1.51 |
|
Gipuzkoa |
7.5 |
2.96 |
|
Joventut Badalona HC |
-14.5 |
-5.00 |
|
Gipuzkoa HC |
+14.5 |
5.00 |
|
Point Line |
163.5 |
159.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 10 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
85 |
96 |
10 |
8 |
L 3 |
85 |
102 |
|
Jan 4 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
80 |
91 |
10 |
7 |
L 2 |
82 |
85 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
78 |
95 |
10 |
6 |
L 1 |
80 |
87 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
104 |
93 |
10 |
5 |
W 1 |
104 |
93 |
|
Dec 20 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
74 |
88 |
9 |
5 |
L 1 |
81 |
84 |
|
Dec 17 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
87 |
83 |
9 |
4 |
W 1 |
84 |
84 |
|
Dec 12 |
A |
Manresa |
L |
80 |
85 |
8 |
4 |
L 1 |
79 |
85 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
88 |
81 |
8 |
3 |
W 3 |
80 |
84 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
89 |
87 |
3 |
15 |
W 1 |
92 |
81 |
|
Jan 2 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
L |
80 |
81 |
2 |
15 |
L 4 |
74 |
84 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
Manresa |
L |
71 |
78 |
2 |
14 |
L 3 |
70 |
78 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
75 |
101 |
2 |
13 |
L 2 |
76 |
95 |
|
Dec 19 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
65 |
79 |
2 |
12 |
L 1 |
65 |
84 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
86 |
82 |
2 |
11 |
W 1 |
89 |
85 |
|
Dec 9 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
L |
73 |
90 |
1 |
11 |
L 9 |
73 |
90 |
|
Dec 6 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
71 |
83 |
1 |
10 |
L 8 |
75 |
82 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Gipuzkoa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 85 points and the Gipuzkoa 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Joventut Badalona |
Gipuzkoa |
|
FG% |
0.55 |
0.47 |
|
ASS |
15.30 |
14.10 |
|
DRB |
18.60 |
20.10 |
|
AST-TO |
1.34 |
0.99 |
|
TRB |
27.40 |
30.10 |
|
FTM |
14.00 |
10.20 |
|
BL |
2.10 |
2.00 |
|
FTA |
17.70 |
14.40 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.30 |
20.70 |
|
ST |
8.30 |
8.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.40 |
14.20 |
|
Ftper |
0.79 |
0.70 |
|
ORBper |
0.47 |
0.50 |
|
ORB |
8.80 |
10.10 |
Go to Top
Manresa vs Unicaja Malaga at 16 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Manresa |
2.4 |
2.30 |
|
Unicaja Malaga |
1.57 |
1.77 |
|
Manresa HC |
+2.5 |
2.50 |
|
Unicaja Malaga HC |
-2.5 |
-2.50 |
|
Point Line |
169.5 |
163.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 9 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
76 |
99 |
8 |
9 |
L 1 |
83 |
95 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
78 |
71 |
8 |
8 |
W 1 |
74 |
79 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
64 |
71 |
7 |
8 |
L 2 |
64 |
76 |
|
Dec 19 |
A |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
80 |
91 |
7 |
7 |
L 1 |
82 |
84 |
|
Dec 12 |
H |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
W |
85 |
80 |
7 |
6 |
W 1 |
83 |
78 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
78 |
100 |
6 |
6 |
L 2 |
85 |
95 |
|
Nov 12 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
80 |
88 |
6 |
5 |
L 1 |
83 |
82 |
|
Nov 8 |
A |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
103 |
102 |
6 |
4 |
W 2 |
93 |
106 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Baskonia |
L |
79 |
91 |
9 |
9 |
L 3 |
84 |
90 |
|
Jan 3 |
A |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
83 |
95 |
9 |
8 |
L 2 |
86 |
87 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
L |
111 |
114 |
9 |
7 |
L 1 |
109 |
122 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
91 |
75 |
9 |
6 |
W 1 |
85 |
77 |
|
Dec 22 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
L |
84 |
90 |
8 |
6 |
L 2 |
83 |
90 |
|
Dec 13 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
84 |
91 |
8 |
5 |
L 1 |
91 |
86 |
|
Dec 6 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
102 |
81 |
8 |
4 |
W 5 |
102 |
81 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
92 |
90 |
7 |
4 |
W 4 |
89 |
93 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 83 points and the Unicaja Malaga 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Manresa |
Unicaja Malaga |
|
FG% |
0.56 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
15.10 |
17.60 |
|
DRB |
22.00 |
22.10 |
|
AST-TO |
1.08 |
1.19 |
|
TRB |
28.90 |
32.30 |
|
FTM |
16.50 |
13.50 |
|
BL |
3.60 |
2.10 |
|
FTA |
21.40 |
17.40 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.50 |
18.40 |
|
ST |
9.40 |
6.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
14.00 |
14.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.77 |
0.77 |
|
ORBper |
0.31 |
0.47 |
|
ORB |
6.90 |
10.30 |
Go to Top
Gran Canaria vs Tenerife at 16 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Gran Canaria |
2.7 |
2.62 |
|
Tenerife |
1.47 |
1.62 |
|
Gran Canaria HC |
+4.5 |
4.00 |
|
Tenerife HC |
-4.5 |
-4.00 |
|
Point Line |
163.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
W |
96 |
85 |
7 |
11 |
W 1 |
94 |
83 |
|
Jan 2 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
85 |
101 |
6 |
11 |
L 1 |
87 |
95 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |
Manresa |
W |
71 |
64 |
6 |
10 |
W 4 |
70 |
64 |
|
Dec 22 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
78 |
54 |
5 |
10 |
W 3 |
76 |
58 |
|
Dec 19 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
79 |
65 |
4 |
10 |
W 2 |
75 |
73 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
87 |
71 |
3 |
10 |
W 1 |
86 |
71 |
|
Dec 6 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
63 |
91 |
2 |
10 |
L 3 |
69 |
87 |
|
Nov 21 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
L |
62 |
79 |
2 |
9 |
L 2 |
64 |
82 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 10 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
L |
87 |
89 |
14 |
4 |
L 2 |
83 |
100 |
|
Jan 2 |
H |
Real Madrid |
L |
85 |
92 |
14 |
3 |
L 1 |
92 |
87 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
90 |
64 |
14 |
2 |
W 2 |
88 |
66 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
93 |
81 |
13 |
2 |
W 1 |
96 |
84 |
|
Dec 20 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
72 |
79 |
12 |
2 |
L 1 |
76 |
78 |
|
Dec 12 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
W |
84 |
79 |
12 |
1 |
W 6 |
86 |
73 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
107 |
62 |
11 |
1 |
W 5 |
104 |
63 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
W |
95 |
89 |
10 |
1 |
W 4 |
97 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 78 points and the Tenerife 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Gran Canaria |
Tenerife |
|
FG% |
0.51 |
0.54 |
|
ASS |
15.00 |
16.60 |
|
DRB |
21.30 |
19.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.22 |
1.29 |
|
TRB |
29.40 |
29.40 |
|
FTM |
11.70 |
12.50 |
|
BL |
2.70 |
2.30 |
|
FTA |
16.10 |
16.90 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.10 |
21.30 |
|
ST |
7.60 |
7.30 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.30 |
12.90 |
|
Ftper |
0.73 |
0.74 |
|
ORBper |
0.38 |
0.49 |
|
ORB |
8.10 |
9.70 |
Go to Top
San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia at 17 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
San Pablo Burgos |
2.05 |
2.15 |
|
Valencia |
1.78 |
1.87 |
|
San Pablo Burgos HC |
+1.5 |
2.00 |
|
Valencia HC |
-1.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
172.5 |
166.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 9 |
A |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
85 |
76 |
13 |
5 |
W 5 |
83 |
81 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
95 |
83 |
12 |
5 |
W 4 |
94 |
78 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
96 |
86 |
11 |
5 |
W 3 |
89 |
89 |
|
Dec 27 |
A |