2021 01 15 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zaragoza vs Fuenlabrada at 16 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Gipuzkoa at 16 January 2021
Manresa vs Unicaja Malaga at 16 January 2021
Gran Canaria vs Tenerife at 16 January 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia at 17 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zaragoza vs Fuenlabrada at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.41

2.13

Fuenlabrada

2.9

1.89

Zaragoza HC

-6.5

2.00

Fuenlabrada HC

+6.5

-2.00

Point Line

173.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 2

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

95

5

12

W 1

94

101

Dec 27

H

Baskonia

L

89

92

4

12

L 2

94

91

Dec 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

91

102

4

11

L 1

88

104

Dec 13

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

105

76

4

10

W 2

98

78

Dec 11

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

98

83

3

10

W 1

102

86

Dec 5

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

2

10

L 6

79

86

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

93

93

Nov 14

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

82

2

8

L 4

80

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

67

83

5

12

L 2

73

79

Dec 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

79

86

5

11

L 1

78

92

Dec 22

A

Unicaja

W

90

84

5

10

W 1

89

80

Dec 20

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

70

74

4

10

L 4

65

76

Dec 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

71

87

4

9

L 3

71

93

Dec 5

H

Valencia Basket

L

61

68

4

8

L 2

62

64

Nov 21

A

UCAM Murcia

L

81

84

4

7

L 1

81

84

Nov 14

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

82

81

4

6

W 1

74

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Fuenlabrada in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 86 points and the Fuenlabrada 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Fuenlabrada

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

15.90

14.30

DRB

23.10

21.70

AST-TO

1.26

1.01

TRB

30.20

31.70

FTM

14.30

15.40

BL

2.50

3.20

FTA

20.20

21.00

PF-Fewer

20.50

21.40

ST

6.90

8.50

TO-Fewer

12.60

14.10

Ftper

0.71

0.73

ORBper

0.31

0.46

ORB

7.10

10.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Gipuzkoa at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.09

1.51

Gipuzkoa

7.5

2.96

Joventut Badalona HC

-14.5

-5.00

Gipuzkoa HC

+14.5

5.00

Point Line

163.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

85

96

10

8

L 3

85

102

Jan 4

H

Valencia Basket

L

80

91

10

7

L 2

82

85

Dec 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

95

10

6

L 1

80

87

Dec 23

H

UCAM Murcia

W

104

93

10

5

W 1

104

93

Dec 20

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

88

9

5

L 1

81

84

Dec 17

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

83

9

4

W 1

84

84

Dec 12

A

Manresa

L

80

85

8

4

L 1

79

85

Dec 5

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

88

81

8

3

W 3

80

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

89

87

3

15

W 1

92

81

Jan 2

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

80

81

2

15

L 4

74

84

Dec 29

H

Manresa

L

71

78

2

14

L 3

70

78

Dec 27

A

Valencia Basket

L

75

101

2

13

L 2

76

95

Dec 19

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

65

79

2

12

L 1

65

84

Dec 13

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

86

82

2

11

W 1

89

85

Dec 9

A

UCAM Murcia

L

73

90

1

11

L 9

73

90

Dec 6

A

Baskonia

L

71

83

1

10

L 8

75

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Gipuzkoa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 85 points and the Gipuzkoa 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Gipuzkoa

FG%

0.55

0.47

ASS

15.30

14.10

DRB

18.60

20.10

AST-TO

1.34

0.99

TRB

27.40

30.10

FTM

14.00

10.20

BL

2.10

2.00

FTA

17.70

14.40

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.70

ST

8.30

8.80

TO-Fewer

11.40

14.20

Ftper

0.79

0.70

ORBper

0.47

0.50

ORB

8.80

10.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Unicaja Malaga at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

2.4

2.30

Unicaja Malaga

1.57

1.77

Manresa HC

+2.5

2.50

Unicaja Malaga HC

-2.5

-2.50

Point Line

169.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

76

99

8

9

L 1

83

95

Dec 29

A

Acunsa GBC

W

78

71

8

8

W 1

74

79

Dec 27

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

64

71

7

8

L 2

64

76

Dec 19

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

80

91

7

7

L 1

82

84

Dec 12

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

85

80

7

6

W 1

83

78

Nov 22

A

Real Madrid

L

78

100

6

6

L 2

85

95

Nov 12

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

80

88

6

5

L 1

83

82

Nov 8

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

103

102

6

4

W 2

93

106

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

Baskonia

L

79

91

9

9

L 3

84

90

Jan 3

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

95

9

8

L 2

86

87

Dec 29

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

111

114

9

7

L 1

109

122

Dec 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

91

75

9

6

W 1

85

77

Dec 22

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

90

8

6

L 2

83

90

Dec 13

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

8

5

L 1

91

86

Dec 6

H

UCAM Murcia

W

102

81

8

4

W 5

102

81

Nov 22

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

92

90

7

4

W 4

89

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 83 points and the Unicaja Malaga 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.56

0.56

ASS

15.10

17.60

DRB

22.00

22.10

AST-TO

1.08

1.19

TRB

28.90

32.30

FTM

16.50

13.50

BL

3.60

2.10

FTA

21.40

17.40

PF-Fewer

20.50

18.40

ST

9.40

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.00

14.80

Ftper

0.77

0.77

ORBper

0.31

0.47

ORB

6.90

10.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gran Canaria vs Tenerife at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gran Canaria

2.7

2.62

Tenerife

1.47

1.62

Gran Canaria HC

+4.5

4.00

Tenerife HC

-4.5

-4.00

Point Line

163.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

96

85

7

11

W 1

94

83

Jan 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

85

101

6

11

L 1

87

95

Dec 27

A

Manresa

W

71

64

6

10

W 4

70

64

Dec 22

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

78

54

5

10

W 3

76

58

Dec 19

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

65

4

10

W 2

75

73

Dec 13

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

87

71

3

10

W 1

86

71

Dec 6

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

91

2

10

L 3

69

87

Nov 21

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

62

79

2

9

L 2

64

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

87

89

14

4

L 2

83

100

Jan 2

H

Real Madrid

L

85

92

14

3

L 1

92

87

Dec 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

64

14

2

W 2

88

66

Dec 27

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

93

81

13

2

W 1

96

84

Dec 20

A

Baskonia

L

72

79

12

2

L 1

76

78

Dec 12

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

84

79

12

1

W 6

86

73

Dec 5

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

107

62

11

1

W 5

104

63

Nov 22

A

Valencia Basket

W

95

89

10

1

W 4

97

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 78 points and the Tenerife 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gran Canaria

Tenerife

FG%

0.51

0.54

ASS

15.00

16.60

DRB

21.30

19.70

AST-TO

1.22

1.29

TRB

29.40

29.40

FTM

11.70

12.50

BL

2.70

2.30

FTA

16.10

16.90

PF-Fewer

19.10

21.30

ST

7.60

7.30

TO-Fewer

12.30

12.90

Ftper

0.73

0.74

ORBper

0.38

0.49

ORB

8.10

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia at 17 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between San Pablo Burgos and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

San Pablo Burgos

2.05

2.15

Valencia

1.78

1.87

San Pablo Burgos HC

+1.5

2.00

Valencia HC

-1.5

-2.00

Point Line

172.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

76

13

5

W 5

83

81

Jan 3

H

Unicaja

W

95

83

12

5

W 4

94

78

Dec 29

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

86

11

5

W 3

89

89

Dec 27

A