Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos at 16 January 2021
Larisa vs Apollon at 16 January 2021
Volos NFC vs Lamia at 17 January 2021
AEK vs Atromitos at 17 January 2021
Aris vs Panathinaikos at 17 January 2021
OFI Crete vs PAOK at 17 January 2021
Olympiakos vs Giannina at 17 January 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
1.72 |
1.87 |
-4.7 |
|
Draw |
3.36 |
3.76 |
-3.2 |
|
Panetolikos |
5.15 |
5.05 |
0.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.43 |
2.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.70 |
-7.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Dec |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
AEK |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Panetolikos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
AEK |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Panathinaikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Nov |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
28% |
27% |
22% |
24% |
|
Panetolikos |
50% |
34% |
8% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.4 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.42 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.25 |
0-1 |
2.72 |
|
1 |
4.37 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.55 |
4+ |
5.68 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
|
4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
|
5 |
27.78 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
|
Gg |
2.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.68 |
|
NoG |
1.56 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.70 |
2.66 |
3.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.51 |
5.01 |
7.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.89 |
4.29 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
4.98 |
6.02 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
2.66 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
11.44 |
4.90 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.56 |
5.15 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.89 |
4.29 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
3.59 |
5.24 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.09 |
2.83 |
5.90 |
|
No Goal |
1.76 |
4.63 |
4.66 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
7.47 |
4.41 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
4.63 |
4.35 |
Go to Top
Larisa vs Apollon at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Larisa |
2.63 |
2.52 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
2.70 |
3.46 |
-8.1 |
|
Apollon |
3.15 |
3.18 |
-0.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.84 |
-4.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.54 |
-2.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Nov |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Larisa |
35% |
29% |
29% |
7% |
|
Apollon |
42% |
34% |
12% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.08 goals and Apollon to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.07 goals and Apollon to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
6.76 |
0-1 |
2.58 |
|
1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.15 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
6.71 |
|
3 |
4.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
|
4 |
10.53 |
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
|
5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.82 |
|
6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.55 |
|
Gg |
2.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.71 |
|
NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.20 |
2.61 |
3.28 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.79 |
3.75 |
|
4+ goals |
4.66 |
3.31 |
2.07 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
4.32 |
3.13 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
2.61 |
3.28 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
7.87 |
2.33 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.64 |
3.99 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.66 |
3.31 |
2.07 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.48 |
3.52 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.95 |
2.66 |
3.50 |
|
No Goal |
2.32 |
4.21 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.24 |
2.60 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
4.21 |
3.40 |
Go to Top
Volos NFC vs Lamia at 17 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Volos NFC |
2.14 |
2.00 |
3.3 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.61 |
-2.2 |
|
Lamia |
3.46 |
4.46 |
-6.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.60 |
-3.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.63 |
-1.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC (3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Volos NFC in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Apollon |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
Lamia in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Volos NFC |
24% |
36% |
23% |
17% |
|
Lamia |
44% |
33% |
19% |
3% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.26 goals and Lamia to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.32 goals and Lamia to score 0.81 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Volos NFC to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
2.88 |
|
1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
6.41 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |
|
4 |
9.01 |
Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
|
5 |
25.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.60 |
|
6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |
|
Gg |
2.37 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.41 |
|
NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.24 |
4.28 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.13 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
1.75 |
3.18 |
8.67 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
3.86 |
4.56 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.24 |
4.28 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.84 |
4.00 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.71 |
4.80 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.75 |
3.18 |
8.67 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.71 |
4.09 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.50 |
4.80 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
5.39 |
4.24 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
6.16 |
3.43 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.39 |
3.87 |
Go to Top
AEK vs Atromitos at 17 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
AEK |
1.52 |
2.11 |
-18.4 |
|
Draw |
3.94 |
3.51 |
3.1 |
|
Atromitos |
6.01 |
4.15 |
7.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.72 |
-11.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.58 |
5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Atromitos, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 7.5 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
AEK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Jan |
Aris |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Apollon |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Panathinaikos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Atromitos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Aris |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
AEK |
28% |
35% |
22% |
16% |
|
Atromitos |
44% |
33% |
20% |
3% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 1.71 goals and Atromitos to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 1.07 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.26 goals and Atromitos to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.26 |
0-1 |
2.74 |
|
1 |
4.10 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
6.71 |
|
3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
|
4 |
9.43 |
Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
|
5 |
26.32 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
|
6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
|
Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.71 |
|
NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.02 |
3.97 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.03 |