2021 01 15 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bursaspor vs Fethiye Belediye at 15 January 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Petkim Spor at 16 January 2021
Galatasaray vs Ormanspor at 16 January 2021
Buyukcekmece vs Tofas at 16 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Bursaspor vs Fethiye Belediye at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bursaspor	1.16	2.06
Fethiye Belediye	5	1.95
Bursaspor HC	-9.5	1.50
Fethiye Belediye HC	+9.5	-1.50
Point Line	163.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	A	Besiktas	W	84	69	5	10	W 2	83	68
Jan 7	H	Buyukcekmece	W	89	81	4	10	W 1	84	82
Jan 3	A	Ormanspor	L	80	84	3	10	L 8	73	90
Dec 27	H	Galatasaray	L	73	92	3	9	L 7	68	91
Dec 20	A	Fenerbahce	L	54	90	3	8	L 6	59	83
Dec 6	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	81	94	3	7	L 5	88	92
Dec 2	A	Afyon	L	70	76	3	6	L 4	66	76
Nov 14	A	Bahcesehir	L	71	101	3	5	L 3	71	101

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	78	86	4	12	L 1	85	84
Jan 3	H	Afyon	W	100	89	4	11	W 1	95	89
Dec 26	A	Buyukcekmece	L	59	66	3	11	L 6	56	67
Dec 20	H	Bahcesehir	L	76	105	3	10	L 5	76	105
Dec 16	A	Gaziantep	L	64	84	3	9	L 4	70	92
Dec 13	A	Turk Telekom	L	75	87	3	8	L 3	75	86
Dec 5	H	Darussafaka	L	54	78	3	7	L 2	55	78
Dec 2	A	Tofas	L	81	110	3	6	L 1	80	104

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 83 points and the Fethiye Belediye 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Bursaspor	Fethiye Belediye
FG%	0.56	0.50
ASS	19.70	19.60
DRB	19.60	21.60
AST-TO	1.66	1.59
TRB	26.60	30.20
FTM	11.10	13.00
BL	2.40	2.30
FTA	15.10	17.90
PF-Fewer	21.10	19.60
ST	5.90	5.90
TO-Fewer	11.90	12.30
Ftper	0.74	0.73
ORBper	0.36	0.40
ORB	7.00	8.60

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Afyon Belediye vs Petkim Spor at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Afyon Belediye	1.8	2.03
Petkim Spor	2	1.97
Afyon Belediye HC	-1.5	1.00
Petkim Spor HC	+1.5	-1.00
Point Line	161.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 10	A	Gaziantep	W	88	84	8	8	W 1	96	92
Jan 3	A	Fethiye	L	89	100	7	8	L 2	82	108
Dec 27	H	Besiktas	L	73	96	7	7	L 1	72	95
Dec 20	A	Ormanspor	W	101	85	7	6	W 2	93	91
Dec 12	H	Galatasaray	W	97	80	6	6	W 1	90	79
Dec 6	A	Fenerbahce	L	74	94	5	6	L 1	80	87
Dec 2	H	Bursaspor	W	76	70	5	5	W 1	71	71
Nov 21	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	82	96	4	5	L 2	89	94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 10	H	Buyukcekmece	W	98	77	6	8	W 1	92	78
Jan 3	H	Bahcesehir	L	72	77	5	8	L 3	72	77
Dec 27	A	Turk Telekom	L	71	89	5	7	L 2	71	88
Dec 6	H	Anadolu Efes	L	71	75	5	6	L 1	80	71
Dec 1	H	Gaziantep	W	67	66	5	5	W 1	73	72
Nov 21	A	Fethiye	L	74	75	4	5	L 1	68	81
Nov 15	H	Besiktas	W	82	72	4	4	W 3	81	71
Nov 7	A	Ormanspor	W	106	90	3	4	W 2	97	96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 81 points and the Petkim Spor 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Afyon Belediye	Petkim Spor
FG%	0.53	0.56
ASS	18.90	21.60
DRB	22.20	22.10
AST-TO	1.33	1.82
TRB	32.40	32.70
FTM	12.50	10.60
BL	2.70	2.30
FTA	16.80	15.10
PF-Fewer	18.60	21.60
ST	6.80	5.80
TO-Fewer	14.20	11.90
Ftper	0.74	0.70
ORBper	0.46	0.48
ORB	10.20	10.60

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Galatasaray vs Ormanspor at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Galatasaray	1.16	1.85
Ormanspor	5	2.18
Galatasaray HC	-9.5	-2.00
Ormanspor HC	+9.5	2.00
Point Line	170.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 10	A	Anadolu Efes	L	80	90	5	11	L 2	90	85
Jan 2	H	Fenerbahce	L	73	87	5	10	L 1	79	81
Dec 27	A	Bursaspor	W	92	73	5	9	W 1	86	74
Dec 19	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	74	86	4	9	L 3	81	84
Dec 12	A	Afyon	L	80	97	4	8	L 2	76	97
Dec 5	H	Buyukcekmece	L	87	91	4	7	L 1	82	92
Dec 2	A	Bahcesehir	W	95	78	4	6	W 2	96	78
Nov 21	H	Turk Telekom	W	94	89	3	6	W 1	94	88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	H	Fenerbahce	L	63	72	5	11	L 1	68	67
Jan 3	H	Bursaspor	W	84	80	5	10	W 1	79	81
Dec 27	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	57	86	4	10	L 3	62	84
Dec 20	H	Afyon	L	85	101	4	9	L 2	80	101
Dec 13	A	Buyukcekmece	L	82	89	4	8	L 1	77	90
Dec 6	H	Bahcesehir	W	80	68	4	7	W 1	80	68
Dec 2	A	Turk Telekom	L	64	83	3	7	L 4	64	82
Nov 21	H	Darussafaka	L	64	80	3	6	L 3	65	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 85 points and the Ormanspor 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Var	Galatasaray	Ormanspor
FG%	0.56	0.52
ASS	19.80	18.40
DRB	22.00	21.60
AST-TO	1.64	1.52
TRB	28.70	29.20
FTM	13.90	14.90
BL	2.80	2.80
FTA	18.30	20.30
PF-Fewer	18.80	16.50
ST	6.10	4.70
TO-Fewer	12.10	12.10
Ftper	0.76	0.74
ORBper	0.30	0.35
ORB	6.70	7.60

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Buyukcekmece vs Tofas at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buyukcekmece and Tofas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Buyukcekmece	3.2	1.89
Tofas	1.33	2.12
Buyukcekmece HC	+6.5	-1.50
Tofas HC	-6.5	1.50
Point Line	166.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 10	A	Socar Spor	L	77	98	7	9	L 2	78	97
Jan 7	A	Bursaspor	L	81	89	7	8	L 1	76	90
Jan 2	A	Gaziantep	W	66	65	7	7	W 2	72	71
Dec 26	H	Fethiye	W	66	59	6	7	W 1	60	64
Dec 20	A	Besiktas	L	77	84	5	7	L 2	76	83
Dec 16	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	77	90	5	6	L 1	84	88
Dec 13	H	Ormanspor	W	89	82	5	5	W 3	82	88
Dec 5	A	Galatasaray	W	91	87	4	5	W 2	85	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	H	Bahcesehir	W	87	80	8	7	W 3	87	80
Jan 2	H	Turk Telekom	W	78	64	7	7	W 2	78	63
Dec 27	A	Darussafaka	W	85	72	6	7	W 1	86	72
Dec 19	H	Anadolu Efes	L	78	92	5	7	L 2	87	87
Dec 5	A	Gaziantep	L	67	68	5	6	L 1	73	74
Dec 2	H	Fethiye	W	110	81	5	5	W 1	101	88
Nov 22	A	Besiktas	L	85	94	4	5	L 1	84	93
Nov 14	H	Ormanspor	W	99	82	4	4	W 2	91	88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buyukcekmece (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buyukcekmece will expected to score 81 points and the Tofas 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Var	Buyukcekmece	Tofas
FG%	0.49	0.57
ASS	17.30	21.60
DRB	22.40	22.70
AST-TO	1.49	1.85
TRB	32.90	31.20
FTM	14.00	11.70
BL	2.20	3.10
FTA	18.00	15.70
PF-Fewer	20.90	21.00
ST	6.10	7.70
TO-Fewer	11.60	11.70
Ftper	0.78	0.75
ORBper	0.47	0.37
ORB	10.50	8.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Bursaspor vs Fethiye Belediye at 15 January 2021

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Afyon Belediye vs Petkim Spor at 16 January 2021

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Galatasaray vs Ormanspor at 16 January 2021

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Buyukcekmece vs Tofas at 16 January 2021

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