2021 01 15 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bursaspor vs Fethiye Belediye at 15 January 2021
Afyon Belediye vs Petkim Spor at 16 January 2021
Galatasaray vs Ormanspor at 16 January 2021
Buyukcekmece vs Tofas at 16 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bursaspor vs Fethiye Belediye at 15 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bursaspor

1.16

2.06

Fethiye Belediye

5

1.95

Bursaspor HC

-9.5

1.50

Fethiye Belediye HC

+9.5

-1.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Besiktas

W

84

69

5

10

W 2

83

68

Jan 7

H

Buyukcekmece

W

89

81

4

10

W 1

84

82

Jan 3

A

Ormanspor

L

80

84

3

10

L 8

73

90

Dec 27

H

Galatasaray

L

73

92

3

9

L 7

68

91

Dec 20

A

Fenerbahce

L

54

90

3

8

L 6

59

83

Dec 6

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

81

94

3

7

L 5

88

92

Dec 2

A

Afyon

L

70

76

3

6

L 4

66

76

Nov 14

A

Bahcesehir

L

71

101

3

5

L 3

71

101

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

78

86

4

12

L 1

85

84

Jan 3

H

Afyon

W

100

89

4

11

W 1

95

89

Dec 26

A

Buyukcekmece

L

59

66

3

11

L 6

56

67

Dec 20

H

Bahcesehir

L

76

105

3

10

L 5

76

105

Dec 16

A

Gaziantep

L

64

84

3

9

L 4

70

92

Dec 13

A

Turk Telekom

L

75

87

3

8

L 3

75

86

Dec 5

H

Darussafaka

L

54

78

3

7

L 2

55

78

Dec 2

A

Tofas

L

81

110

3

6

L 1

80

104

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 83 points and the Fethiye Belediye 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bursaspor

Fethiye Belediye

FG%

0.56

0.50

ASS

19.70

19.60

DRB

19.60

21.60

AST-TO

1.66

1.59

TRB

26.60

30.20

FTM

11.10

13.00

BL

2.40

2.30

FTA

15.10

17.90

PF-Fewer

21.10

19.60

ST

5.90

5.90

TO-Fewer

11.90

12.30

Ftper

0.74

0.73

ORBper

0.36

0.40

ORB

7.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Afyon Belediye vs Petkim Spor at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Afyon Belediye

1.8

2.03

Petkim Spor

2

1.97

Afyon Belediye HC

-1.5

1.00

Petkim Spor HC

+1.5

-1.00

Point Line

161.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Gaziantep

W

88

84

8

8

W 1

96

92

Jan 3

A

Fethiye

L

89

100

7

8

L 2

82

108

Dec 27

H

Besiktas

L

73

96

7

7

L 1

72

95

Dec 20

A

Ormanspor

W

101

85

7

6

W 2

93

91

Dec 12

H

Galatasaray

W

97

80

6

6

W 1

90

79

Dec 6

A

Fenerbahce

L

74

94

5

6

L 1

80

87

Dec 2

H

Bursaspor

W

76

70

5

5

W 1

71

71

Nov 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

82

96

4

5

L 2

89

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

H

Buyukcekmece

W

98

77

6

8

W 1

92

78

Jan 3

H

Bahcesehir

L

72

77

5

8

L 3

72

77

Dec 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

71

89

5

7

L 2

71

88

Dec 6

H

Anadolu Efes

L

71

75

5

6

L 1

80

71

Dec 1

H

Gaziantep

W

67

66

5

5

W 1

73

72

Nov 21

A

Fethiye

L

74

75

4

5

L 1

68

81

Nov 15

H

Besiktas

W

82

72

4

4

W 3

81

71

Nov 7

A

Ormanspor

W

106

90

3

4

W 2

97

96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 81 points and the Petkim Spor 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Afyon Belediye

Petkim Spor

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

18.90

21.60

DRB

22.20

22.10

AST-TO

1.33

1.82

TRB

32.40

32.70

FTM

12.50

10.60

BL

2.70

2.30

FTA

16.80

15.10

PF-Fewer

18.60

21.60

ST

6.80

5.80

TO-Fewer

14.20

11.90

Ftper

0.74

0.70

ORBper

0.46

0.48

ORB

10.20

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Galatasaray vs Ormanspor at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Galatasaray

1.16

1.85

Ormanspor

5

2.18

Galatasaray HC

-9.5

-2.00

Ormanspor HC

+9.5

2.00

Point Line

170.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Anadolu Efes

L

80

90

5

11

L 2

90

85

Jan 2

H

Fenerbahce

L

73

87

5

10

L 1

79

81

Dec 27

A

Bursaspor

W

92

73

5

9

W 1

86

74

Dec 19

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

74

86

4

9

L 3

81

84

Dec 12

A

Afyon

L

80

97

4

8

L 2

76

97

Dec 5

H

Buyukcekmece

L

87

91

4

7

L 1

82

92

Dec 2

A

Bahcesehir

W

95

78

4

6

W 2

96

78

Nov 21

H

Turk Telekom

W

94

89

3

6

W 1

94

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Fenerbahce

L

63

72

5

11

L 1

68

67

Jan 3

H

Bursaspor

W

84

80

5

10

W 1

79

81

Dec 27

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

57

86

4

10

L 3

62

84

Dec 20

H

Afyon

L

85

101

4

9

L 2

80

101

Dec 13

A

Buyukcekmece

L

82

89

4

8

L 1

77

90

Dec 6

H

Bahcesehir

W

80

68

4

7

W 1

80

68

Dec 2

A

Turk Telekom

L

64

83

3

7

L 4

64

82

Nov 21

H

Darussafaka

L

64

80

3

6

L 3

65

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 85 points and the Ormanspor 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Galatasaray

Ormanspor

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

19.80

18.40

DRB

22.00

21.60

AST-TO

1.64

1.52

TRB

28.70

29.20

FTM

13.90

14.90

BL

2.80

2.80

FTA

18.30

20.30

PF-Fewer

18.80

16.50

ST

6.10

4.70

TO-Fewer

12.10

12.10

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.30

0.35

ORB

6.70

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Buyukcekmece vs Tofas at 16 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buyukcekmece and Tofas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 16 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Buyukcekmece

3.2

1.89

Tofas

1.33

2.12

Buyukcekmece HC

+6.5

-1.50

Tofas HC

-6.5

1.50

Point Line

166.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Socar Spor

L

77

98

7

9

L 2

78

97

Jan 7

A

Bursaspor

L

81

89

7

8

L 1

76

90

Jan 2

A

Gaziantep

W

66

65

7

7

W 2

72

71

Dec 26

H

Fethiye

W

66

59

6

7

W 1

60

64

Dec 20

A

Besiktas

L

77

84

5

7

L 2

76

83

Dec 16

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

L

77

90

5

6

L 1

84

88

Dec 13

H

Ormanspor

W

89

82

5

5

W 3

82

88

Dec 5

A

Galatasaray

W

91

87

4

5

W 2

85

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Bahcesehir

W

87

80

8

7

W 3

87

80

Jan 2

H

Turk Telekom

W

78

64

7

7

W 2

78

63

Dec 27

A

Darussafaka

W

85

72

6

7

W 1

86

72

Dec 19

H

Anadolu Efes

L

78

92

5

7

L 2

87

87

Dec 5

A

Gaziantep

L

67

68

5

6

L 1

73

74

Dec 2

H

Fethiye

W

110

81

5

5

W 1

101

88

Nov 22

A

Besiktas

L

85

94

4

5

L 1

84

93

Nov 14

H

Ormanspor

W

99

82

4

4

W 2

91

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buyukcekmece (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buyukcekmece will expected to score 81 points and the Tofas 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Buyukcekmece

Tofas

FG%

0.49

0.57

ASS

17.30

21.60

DRB

22.40

22.70

AST-TO

1.49

1.85

TRB

32.90

31.20

FTM

14.00

11.70

BL

2.20

3.10

FTA

18.00

15.70

PF-Fewer

20.90

21.00

ST

6.10

7.70

TO-Fewer

11.60

11.70

Ftper

0.78

0.75

ORBper

0.47

0.37

ORB

10.50

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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