BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos at 15 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid at 15 January 2021
Olympiacos vs Villeurbanne at 15 January 2021
Valencia vs Crvena Zvezda at 15 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Zenit vs Zalgiris at 15 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Zenit |
1.57 |
2.98 |
|
Zalgiris |
2.5 |
1.51 |
|
Zenit HC |
-3.5 |
5.00 |
|
Zalgiris HC |
+3.5 |
-5.00 |
|
Point Line |
153.5 |
152.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
Bayern Munich |
L |
80 |
82 |
11 |
6 |
L 1 |
83 |
82 |
|
Jan 7 |
A |
Panathinaikos OPAP |
W |
89 |
77 |
11 |
5 |
W 3 |
84 |
76 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
W |
78 |
72 |
10 |
5 |
W 2 |
80 |
72 |
|
Dec 22 |
H |
Crvena zvezda mts |
W |
98 |
69 |
9 |
5 |
W 1 |
99 |
73 |
|
Dec 18 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
65 |
83 |
8 |
5 |
L 1 |
65 |
77 |
|
Dec 16 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
W |
79 |
75 |
8 |
4 |
W 1 |
82 |
75 |
|
Dec 10 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
72 |
79 |
7 |
4 |
L 1 |
73 |
76 |
|
Dec 8 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
W |
85 |
72 |
7 |
3 |
W 1 |
83 |
70 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
73 |
83 |
11 |
8 |
L 1 |
73 |
77 |
|
Jan 8 |
H |
BC Khimki |
W |
102 |
75 |
11 |
7 |
W 6 |
88 |
74 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
Alba Berlin |
W |
74 |
71 |
10 |
7 |
W 5 |
70 |
73 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
W |
74 |
73 |
9 |
7 |
W 4 |
77 |
73 |
|
Dec 17 |
H |
Fenerbahce |
W |
99 |
62 |
8 |
7 |
W 3 |
100 |
66 |
|
Dec 15 |
H |
Kirolbet Baskonia |
W |
92 |
73 |
7 |
7 |
W 2 |
94 |
73 |
|
Dec 11 |
A |
Panathinaikos OPAP |
W |
81 |
69 |
6 |
7 |
W 1 |
76 |
69 |
|
Dec 4 |
H |
FC Barcelona |
L |
62 |
73 |
5 |
7 |
L 6 |
66 |
71 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 77 points and the Zalgiris 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Zenit |
Zalgiris |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.58 |
|
ASS |
15.00 |
19.00 |
|
DRB |
18.60 |
21.60 |
|
AST-TO |
1.27 |
1.54 |
|
TRB |
25.90 |
29.70 |
|
FTM |
12.80 |
13.20 |
|
BL |
2.40 |
1.30 |
|
FTA |
16.60 |
15.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.80 |
19.70 |
|
ST |
6.80 |
6.20 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.80 |
12.30 |
|
Ftper |
0.77 |
0.87 |
|
ORBper |
0.39 |
0.37 |
|
ORB |
7.30 |
8.10 |
Go to Top
CSKA Moscow vs Barcelona at 15 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Barcelona for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
CSKA Moscow |
1.7 |
1.41 |
|
Barcelona |
2.2 |
3.41 |
|
CSKA Moscow HC |
-2.5 |
-6.00 |
|
Barcelona HC |
+2.5 |
6.00 |
|
Point Line |
155.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
H |
Zalgiris |
W |
83 |
73 |
15 |
4 |
W 1 |
85 |
71 |
|
Jan 7 |
A |
Kirolbet Baskonia |
L |
93 |
95 |
14 |
4 |
L 1 |
95 |
95 |
|
Dec 30 |
A |
AX Armani Exchange Olimpia |
W |
91 |
87 |
14 |
3 |
W 12 |
90 |
84 |
|
Dec 22 |
A |
LDLC ASVEL |
W |
87 |
78 |
13 |
3 |
W 11 |
86 |
82 |
|
Dec 18 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
83 |
65 |
12 |
3 |
W 10 |
90 |
67 |
|
Dec 15 |
H |
Anadolu Efes |
W |
100 |
65 |
11 |
3 |
W 9 |
102 |
66 |
|
Dec 11 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
96 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
W 8 |
83 |
86 |
|
Dec 3 |
H |
Olympiacos |
W |
80 |
61 |
9 |
3 |
W 7 |
79 |
60 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 12 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
87 |
75 |
13 |
6 |
W 2 |
75 |
74 |
|
Jan 7 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
W |
89 |
72 |
12 |
6 |
W 1 |
87 |
70 |
|
Dec 30 |
A |
Bayern Munich |
L |
77 |
90 |
11 |
6 |
L 3 |
80 |
90 |
|
Dec 22 |
A |
Anadolu Efes |
L |
79 |
86 |
11 |
5 |
L 2 |
80 |
87 |
|
Dec 18 |
H |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
L |
67 |
68 |
11 |
4 |
L 1 |
68 |
68 |
|
Dec 16 |
H |
BC Khimki |
W |
87 |
74 |
11 |
3 |
W 2 |
75 |
73 |
|
Dec 11 |
H |
AX Armani Exchange Olimpia |
W |
87 |
71 |
10 |
3 |
W 1 |
86 |
69 |
|
Dec 8 |
H |
Olympiacos |
L |
88 |
96 |
9 |
3 |
L 1 |
87 |
95 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 79 points and the Barcelona 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
CSKA Moscow |
Barcelona |
|
FG% |
0.52 |
0.50 |
|
ASS |
17.10 |
17.10 |
|
DRB |
20.60 |
18.20 |
|
AST-TO |
1.39 |
1.36 |
|
TRB |
29.40 |
26.80 |
|
FTM |
13.50 |
13.40 |
|
BL |
2.80 |
2.60 |
|
FTA |
16.40 |
16.80 |
|
PF-Fewer |
22.90 |
20.70 |
|
ST |
6.10 |
6.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.30 |
12.60 |
|
Ftper |
0.82 |
0.80 |
|
ORBper |
0.43 |
0.47 |
|
ORB |
8.80 |
8.60 |
Go to Top
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos at 15 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Panathinaikos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Fenerbahce |
1.35 |
2.67 |
|
Panathinaikos |
3.35 |
1.60 |
|
Fenerbahce HC |
-7.5 |
4.00 |
|
Panathinaikos HC |
+7.5 |
-4.00 |
|
Point Line |
155.5 |
154.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 12 |
H |
Kirolbet Baskonia |
W |
96 |
76 |
9 |
10 |
W 4 |
98 |
76 |
|
Jan 7 |
A |
Crvena zvezda mts |
W |
73 |
71 |
8 |
10 |
W 3 |
74 |
75 |
|
Dec 30 |
H |
LDLC ASVEL |
W |
81 |
59 |
7 |
10 |
W 2 |
80 |
62 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
Olympiacos |
W |
84 |
77 |
6 |
10 |
W 1 |
83 |
76 |
|
Dec 17 |
A |
Zalgiris |
L |
62 |
99 |
5 |
10 |
L 3 |
64 |
97 |
|
Dec 15 |
H |
AX Armani Exchange Olimpia |
L |
71 |
79 |
5 |
9 |
L 2 |
70 |
76 |
|
Dec 10 |
A |
Alba Berlin |
L |
63 |
89 |
5 |
8 |
L 1 |
60 |
91 |
|
Dec 3 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
73 |
65 |
5 |
7 |
W 1 |
79 |
67 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
H |
LDLC ASVEL |
W |
88 |
71 |
6 |
12 |
W 1 |
87 |
75 |
|
Jan 7 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
77 |
89 |
5 |
12 |
L 3 |
83 |
92 |
|
Dec 30 |
A |
Crvena zvezda mts |
L |
71 |
74 |
5 |
11 |
L 2 |
72 |
78 |
|
Dec 22 |
A |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
L |
81 |
89 |
5 |
10 |
L 1 |
83 |
90 |
|
Dec 17 |
H |
Alba Berlin |
W |
92 |
69 |
5 |
9 |
W 1 |
87 |
70 |
|
Dec 15 |
H |
Real Madrid |
L |
93 |
97 |
4 |
9 |
L 2 |
95 |
93 |
|
Dec 11 |
H |
Zalgiris |
L |
69 |
81 |
4 |
8 |
L 1 |
71 |
79 |
|
Dec 3 |
A |
AX Armani Exchange Olimpia |
W |
80 |
77 |
4 |
7 |
W 1 |
79 |
74 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fenerbahce (in the first graph) and by Panathinaikos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fenerbahce will expected to score 79 points and the Panathinaikos 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Fenerbahce |
Panathinaikos |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.53 |
|
ASS |
17.70 |
17.60 |
|
DRB |
21.10 |
21.50 |
|
AST-TO |
1.27 |
1.49 |
|
TRB |
27.50 |
30.30 |
|
FTM |
10.10 |
12.60 |
|
BL |
1.70 |
3.20 |
|
FTA |
12.10 |
17.10 |
|
PF-Fewer |
18.80 |
21.40 |
|
ST |
6.90 |
5.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.90 |
11.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.84 |
0.74 |
|
ORBper |
0.30 |
0.41 |
|
ORB |
6.40 |
8.80 |
Go to Top
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid at 15 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Bayern Munich |
2.7 |
7.15 |
|
Real Madrid |
1.5 |
1.16 |
|
Bayern Munich HC |
+4.5 |
10.00 |
|
Real Madrid HC |
-4.5 |
-10.00 |
|
Point Line |
155.5 |
156.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
82 |
80 |
12 |
7 |
W 1 |
88 |
83 |
|
Jan 8 |
A |
Olympiacos |
L |
82 |
84 |
11 |
7 |
L 1 |
81 |
83 |
|
Dec 30 |
H |
FC Barcelona |
W |
90 |
77 |
11 |
6 |
W 1 |
96 |
75 |
|
Dec 23 |
A |
Zalgiris |
L |
73 |
74 |
10 |
6 |
L 1 |
75 |
72 |
|
Dec 18 |
H |
Kirolbet Baskonia |
W |
77 |
66 |
10 |
5 |
W 1 |
79 |
66 |
|
Dec 16 |
A |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
L |
75 |
79 |
9 |
5 |
L 1 |
81 |
82 |
|
Dec 11 |
H |
LDLC ASVEL |
W |
76 |
62 |
9 |
4 |
W 2 |
75 |
65 |
|
Dec 4 |
H |
BC Khimki |
W |
80 |
77 |
8 |
4 |
W 1 |
69 |
76 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 8 |
H |
AX Armani Exchange Olimpia |
L |
76 |
80 |
12 |
6 |
L 1 |
75 |
77 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
Anadolu Efes |
W |
73 |
65 |
12 |
5 |
W 6 |
74 |
66 |
|
Dec 22 |
H |
Alba Berlin |
W |
91 |
62 |
11 |
5 |
W 5 |
86 |
63 |
|
Dec 18 |
A |
Olympiacos |
W |
86 |
82 |
10 |
5 |
W 4 |
85 |
81 |
|
Dec 15 |
A |
Panathinaikos OPAP |
W |
97 |
93 |
9 |
5 |
W 3 |
91 |
92 |
|
Dec 10 |
H |
Zenit Saint Petersburg |
W |
79 |
72 |
8 |
5 |
W 2 |
85 |
74 |
|
Dec 4 |
H |
LDLC ASVEL |
W |
91 |
84 |
7 |
5 |
W 1 |
90 |
88 |
|
Nov 26 |
A |
CSKA Moscow |
L |
73 |
74 |
6 |
5 |
L 1 |
73 |
68 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayern Munich (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayern Munich will expected to score 79 points and the Real Madrid 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Bayern Munich |
Real Madrid |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
16.60 |
19.20 |
|
DRB |
20.70 |
22.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.24 |
1.64 |
|
TRB |
27.70 |
31.10 |
|
FTM |
16.10 |
11.90 |
|
BL |
1.90 |
3.70 |
|
FTA |
19.80 |
14.60 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.60 |
19.20 |
|
ST |
6.10 |
6.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.40 |
11.70 |
|
Ftper |
0.81 |
0.82 |
|
ORBper |
0.34 |
0.37 |
|
ORB |
7.10 |
8.40 |
Go to Top
Olympiacos vs Villeurbanne at 15 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiacos and Villeurbanne for EuroLeague, which will take place on 15 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Olympiacos |
1.25 |
1.29 |
|
Villeurbanne |
4.1 |
4.50 |
|
Olympiacos HC |
-8.5 |
-8.00 |
|
Villeurbanne HC |
+8.5 |
8.00 |
|
Point Line |
155.5 |
155.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 12 |
A |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
W |
89 |
87 |
10 |
8 |
W 3 |
91 |
88 |
|
Jan 8 |
H |
Bayern Munich |
W |
84 |
82 |
9 |
8 |
W 2 |
87 |
82 |
|
Dec 29 |
A |
BC Khimki |
W |
105 |
88 |
8 |
8 |
W 1 |
91 |
87 |
|
Dec 23 |
A |
Fenerbahce |
L |