2021 01 15 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Khimki vs Unics at 17 January 2021
Enisey vs Parma Perm at 17 January 2021
Minsk vs Zielona Gora at 17 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Khimki vs Unics at 17 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

1.65

1.29

Unics

2.2

4.48

Khimki HC

-2.5

-8.00

Unics HC

+2.5

8.00

Point Line

168.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

102

91

5

5

W 2

100

84

Dec 26

H

Parma

W

103

83

4

5

W 1

101

86

Nov 22

A

UNICS

L

76

83

3

5

L 1

82

85

Nov 9

H

CSKA Moscow

W

86

78

3

4

W 1

98

68

Oct 26

A

Avtodor

L

82

85

2

4

L 2

80

85

Oct 19

H

Astana

L

88

89

2

3

L 1

80

94

Oct 5

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

92

74

2

2

W 2

85

78

Sep 28

A

Enisey

W

92

77

1

2

W 1

86

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

75

72

Jan 6

H

Zielona Gora

W

65

64

7

4

W 2

62

61

Jan 3

H

Avtodor

W

94

65

6

4

W 1

91

65

Dec 26

H

CSKA Moscow

L

76

83

5

4

L 1

87

72

Dec 20

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

83

77

5

3

W 2

81

85

Dec 12

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

83

66

4

3

W 1

77

70

Dec 6

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

64

81

3

3

L 1

72

76

Nov 22

H

BC Khimki

W

83

76

3

2

W 1

82

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 81 points and the Unics 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Unics

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

21.70

14.70

DRB

22.20

20.50

AST-TO

1.90

1.25

TRB

31.10

29.30

FTM

16.60

13.30

BL

2.70

1.80

FTA

20.80

17.00

PF-Fewer

21.90

22.00

ST

6.70

7.70

TO-Fewer

11.40

11.80

Ftper

0.80

0.78

ORBper

0.40

0.43

ORB

8.90

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Enisey vs Parma Perm at 17 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Enisey and Parma Perm for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Enisey

2.12

2.44

Parma Perm

1.7

1.70

Enisey HC

+1.5

3.00

Parma Perm HC

-1.5

-3.00

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 3

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

67

85

1

9

L 5

76

80

Dec 20

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

79

83

1

8

L 4

82

82

Dec 13

A

Avtodor

L

79

85

1

7

L 3

77

85

Dec 6

H

Zielona Gora

L

73

94

1

6

L 2

69

90

Nov 22

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

79

106

1

5

L 1

78

98

Nov 8

A

Parma

W

84

67

1

4

W 1

82

70

Nov 1

A

CSKA Moscow

L

60

109

0

4

L 3

68

95

Oct 25

A

UNICS

L

64

75

0

3

L 2

69

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

UNICS

L

69

76

4

7

L 4

74

78

Dec 26

A

BC Khimki

L

83

103

4

6

L 3

82

97

Dec 20

H

Zielona Gora

L

79

85

4

5

L 2

75

81

Dec 17

H

Astana

L

83

84

4

4

L 1

76

88

Dec 12

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

78

65

4

3

W 2

76

72

Dec 5

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

84

81

3

3

W 1

82

75

Nov 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

61

95

2

3

L 3

70

83

Nov 14

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

73

88

2

2

L 2

76

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Enisey (in the first graph) and by Parma Perm in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Enisey will expected to score 79 points and the Parma Perm 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Enisey

Parma Perm

FG%

0.50

0.56

ASS

14.90

19.30

DRB

19.60

19.50

AST-TO

0.97

1.29

TRB

28.50

25.60

FTM

17.80

13.20

BL

0.50

1.90

FTA

24.90

16.30

PF-Fewer

23.70

21.50

ST

5.20

6.50

TO-Fewer

15.40

15.00

Ftper

0.72

0.81

ORBper

0.45

0.32

ORB

8.90

6.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Minsk vs Zielona Gora at 17 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Minsk and Zielona Gora for VTB United League, which will take place on 17 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Minsk

2.55

3.06

Zielona Gora

1.5

1.49

Minsk HC

+4.5

5.00

Zielona Gora HC

-4.5

-5.00

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

80

76

Dec 23

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

77

1

8

L 8

75

71

Dec 20

A

UNICS

L

77

83

1

7

L 7

83

85

Dec 12

H

Parma

L

65

78

1

6

L 6

64

81

Dec 9

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

82

88

1

5

L 5

76

93

Dec 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

60

87

1

4

L 4

68

76

Nov 7

H

Avtodor

L

69

86

1

3

L 3

67

86

Nov 1

A

Zielona Gora

L

75

89

1

2

L 2

71

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

UNICS

L

64

65

6

7

L 1

69

66

Dec 23

A

Avtodor

W

91

90

6

6

W 3

88

90

Dec 20

A

Parma

W

85

79

5

6

W 2

84

82

Dec 14

H

Astana

W

110

86

4

6

W 1

100

91

Dec 8

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

105

3

6

L 1

83

91

Dec 6

A

Enisey

W

94

73

3

5

W 2

88

80

Nov 14

H

UNICS

W

92

86

2

5

W 1

99

88

Nov 8

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

74

94

1

5

L 1

84

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Minsk (in the first graph) and by Zielona Gora in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Minsk will expected to score 80 points and the Zielona Gora 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Minsk

Zielona Gora

FG%

0.50

0.58

ASS

16.50

19.20

DRB

20.10

20.40

AST-TO

1.12

1.36

TRB

29.30

29.20

FTM

12.00

14.90

BL

1.80

1.70

FTA

17.00

20.00

PF-Fewer

20.80

22.80

ST

6.00

7.00

TO-Fewer

14.70

14.10

Ftper

0.71

0.75

ORBper

0.46

0.43

ORB

9.20

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *