2021 01 19 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Buducnost at 19 January 2021
Monaco vs Unicaja Malaga at 19 January 2021
Aquila Basket Trento vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 20 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Nanterre at 20 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Buducnost at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

1.5

1.29

Buducnost

2.6

4.45

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC

-3.5

-7.50

Buducnost HC

+3.5

7.50

Point Line

160.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Virtus Bologna

L

76

90

6

3

L 1

82

84

Dec 16

A

Promitheas

W

105

69

6

2

W 6

97

74

Dec 10

H

Promitheas

W

77

73

5

2

W 5

71

78

Dec 8

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

87

65

4

2

W 4

93

68

Nov 11

A

Bursaspor

W

97

80

3

2

W 3

84

72

Nov 9

H

Bursaspor

W

104

88

2

2

W 2

90

79

Nov 4

H

Nanterre 92

W

75

63

1

2

W 1

71

63

Oct 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

51

61

0

2

L 1

55

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Mornar

L

78

84

4

4

L 1

77

84

Dec 8

A

ratiopharm Ulm

W

77

73

4

3

W 2

80

73

Nov 20

A

Germani Brescia

W

75

66

3

3

W 1

71

70

Nov 18

H

Unicaja

L

66

90

2

3

L 2

66

83

Oct 28

A

Mornar

L

82

85

2

2

L 1

81

85

Oct 21

H

ratiopharm Ulm

W

73

68

2

1

W 1

75

68

Oct 14

A

Unicaja

L

87

91

1

1

L 1

87

84

Sep 29

H

Germani Brescia

W

93

81

1

0

W 0

88

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana will expected to score 80 points and the Buducnost 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana

Buducnost

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

15.80

13.30

DRB

24.40

23.50

AST-TO

1.65

1.07

TRB

35.70

31.60

FTM

10.90

16.60

BL

2.10

2.00

FTA

15.70

20.50

PF-Fewer

16.40

17.80

ST

7.30

5.90

TO-Fewer

9.60

12.40

Ftper

0.70

0.81

ORBper

0.46

0.34

ORB

11.20

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Unicaja Malaga at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Unicaja Malaga for EuroCup, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.57

1.62

Unicaja Malaga

2.4

2.60

Monaco HC

-3.5

-4.00

Unicaja Malaga HC

+3.5

4.00

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

93

65

7

4

W 3

88

65

Dec 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

66

64

6

4

W 2

69

70

Dec 18

A

Lietkabelis

W

88

64

5

4

W 1

86

71

Dec 16

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

76

4

4

L 2

72

66

Dec 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

74

4

3

L 1

73

69

Nov 17

A

Antwerp Giants

W

75

67

4

2

W 1

69

73

Oct 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

88

3

2

L 2

72

77

Oct 21

A

Virtus Bologna

L

85

94

3

1

L 1

92

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

Joventut

L

86

95

6

3

L 2

87

88

Dec 16

H

ratiopharm Ulm

L

90

94

6

2

L 1

93

94

Dec 9

A

Germani Brescia

W

83

79

6

1

W 6

79

83

Nov 18

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

90

66

5

1

W 5

91

68

Nov 11

H

Mornar

W

98

72

4

1

W 4

97

72

Oct 28

A

ratiopharm Ulm

W

81

76

3

1

W 3

84

76

Oct 21

H

Germani Brescia

W

86

69

2

1

W 2

82

73

Oct 14

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

91

87

1

1

W 1

92

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 80 points and the Unicaja Malaga 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.52

0.58

ASS

15.30

18.80

DRB

22.30

21.90

AST-TO

1.31

1.62

TRB

33.40

30.40

FTM

13.70

11.20

BL

2.30

2.00

FTA

19.80

15.20

PF-Fewer

20.50

21.00

ST

7.20

6.40

TO-Fewer

11.70

11.60

Ftper

0.69

0.74

ORBper

0.50

0.39

ORB

11.10

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aquila Basket Trento vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 20 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Lokomotiv Kuban for EuroCup, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aquila Basket Trento

3.45

2.89

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.31

1.53

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+7.5

5.00

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-7.5

-5.00

Point Line

158.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Partizan NIS

L

43

71

6

3

L 3

47

71

Dec 8

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

65

87

6

2

L 2

70

84

Nov 18

H

Nanterre 92

L

102

104

6

1

L 1

97

105

Nov 11

A

Promitheas

W

89

80

6

0

W 5

82

86

Nov 4

H

Bursaspor

W

89

80

5

0

W 4

77

72

Oct 20

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

61

51

4

0

W 3

66

50

Oct 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

71

65

3

0

W 2

67

65

Oct 6

H

Promitheas

W

78

51

2

0

W 1

72

55

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 16

H

Monaco

W

76

72

8

2

W 3

85

73

Dec 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

106

100

7

2

W 2

111

109

Nov 18

H

Lietkabelis

W

94

90

6

2

W 1

92

100

Nov 11

H

Virtus Bologna

L

83

89

5

2

L 1

90

83

Nov 4

A

Antwerp Giants

W

114

94

5

1

W 4

105

102

Oct 28

A

Monaco

W

88

72

4

1

W 3

98

73

Oct 21

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

76

61

3

1

W 2

80

66

Oct 14

A

Lietkabelis

W

105

76

2

1

W 1

102

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 79 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aquila Basket Trento

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.48

0.56

ASS

16.20

19.20

DRB

23.30

25.60

AST-TO

1.50

1.41

TRB

33.10

36.80

FTM

11.20

16.70

BL

2.40

3.50

FTA

14.60

23.60

PF-Fewer

19.30

19.40

ST

7.40

6.20

TO-Fewer

10.80

13.60

Ftper

0.77

0.71

ORBper

0.42

0.44

ORB

9.80

11.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Nanterre at 20 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.09

1.74

Nanterre

7.5

2.35

Joventut Badalona HC

-15.5

-3.00

Nanterre HC

+15.5

3.00

Point Line

167.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Unicaja

W

95

86

7

2

W 3

95

79

Dec 15

H

UNICS

W

84

77

6

2

W 2

84

75

Dec 8

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

89

75

5

2

W 1

80

78

Nov 19

A

Partizan NIS

L

75

78

4

2

L 2

82

78

Nov 17

H

Bahcesehir

L

77

87

4

1

L 1

76

86

Oct 28

A

UNICS

W

93

91

4

0

W 3

93

88

Oct 20

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

92

78

3

0

W 2

83

81

Oct 14

A

Bahcesehir

W

91

72

2

0

W 1

89

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

Monaco

L

65

93

3

6

L 3

72

94

Dec 23

A

Bursaspor

L

92

102

3

5

L 2

80

92

Dec 22

H

Bursaspor

L

90

91

3

4

L 1

78

82

Dec 8

H

Promitheas

W

91

70

3

3

W 2

84

75

Nov 18

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

104

102

2

3

W 1

112

107

Nov 4

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

63

75

1

3

L 3

68

73

Oct 21

A

Promitheas

L

72

88

1

2

L 2

67

94

Oct 13

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

65

71

1

1

L 1

70

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Nanterre in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 86 points and the Nanterre 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Nanterre

FG%

0.57

0.52

ASS

19.90

16.80

DRB

22.70

23.90

AST-TO

1.49

1.31

TRB

31.30

32.20

FTM

17.20

12.20

BL

1.80

2.80

FTA

21.70

18.30

PF-Fewer

19.00

18.20

ST

5.10

5.80

TO-Fewer

13.40

12.80

Ftper

0.80

0.67

ORBper

0.38

0.35

ORB

8.70

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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