BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Buducnost at 19 January 2021
Monaco vs Unicaja Malaga at 19 January 2021
Aquila Basket Trento vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 20 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Nanterre at 20 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana vs Buducnost at 19 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana |
1.5 |
1.29 |
|
Buducnost |
2.6 |
4.45 |
|
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana HC |
-3.5 |
-7.50 |
|
Buducnost HC |
+3.5 |
7.50 |
|
Point Line |
160.5 |
154.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
76 |
90 |
6 |
3 |
L 1 |
82 |
84 |
|
Dec 16 |
A |
Promitheas |
W |
105 |
69 |
6 |
2 |
W 6 |
97 |
74 |
|
Dec 10 |
H |
Promitheas |
W |
77 |
73 |
5 |
2 |
W 5 |
71 |
78 |
|
Dec 8 |
H |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
W |
87 |
65 |
4 |
2 |
W 4 |
93 |
68 |
|
Nov 11 |
A |
Bursaspor |
W |
97 |
80 |
3 |
2 |
W 3 |
84 |
72 |
|
Nov 9 |
H |
Bursaspor |
W |
104 |
88 |
2 |
2 |
W 2 |
90 |
79 |
|
Nov 4 |
H |
Nanterre 92 |
W |
75 |
63 |
1 |
2 |
W 1 |
71 |
63 |
|
Oct 20 |
A |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
L |
51 |
61 |
0 |
2 |
L 1 |
55 |
64 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 16 |
H |
Mornar |
L |
78 |
84 |
4 |
4 |
L 1 |
77 |
84 |
|
Dec 8 |
A |
ratiopharm Ulm |
W |
77 |
73 |
4 |
3 |
W 2 |
80 |
73 |
|
Nov 20 |
A |
Germani Brescia |
W |
75 |
66 |
3 |
3 |
W 1 |
71 |
70 |
|
Nov 18 |
H |
Unicaja |
L |
66 |
90 |
2 |
3 |
L 2 |
66 |
83 |
|
Oct 28 |
A |
Mornar |
L |
82 |
85 |
2 |
2 |
L 1 |
81 |
85 |
|
Oct 21 |
H |
ratiopharm Ulm |
W |
73 |
68 |
2 |
1 |
W 1 |
75 |
68 |
|
Oct 14 |
A |
Unicaja |
L |
87 |
91 |
1 |
1 |
L 1 |
87 |
84 |
|
Sep 29 |
H |
Germani Brescia |
W |
93 |
81 |
1 |
0 |
W 0 |
88 |
85 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana will expected to score 80 points and the Buducnost 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana |
Buducnost |
|
FG% |
0.52 |
0.52 |
|
ASS |
15.80 |
13.30 |
|
DRB |
24.40 |
23.50 |
|
AST-TO |
1.65 |
1.07 |
|
TRB |
35.70 |
31.60 |
|
FTM |
10.90 |
16.60 |
|
BL |
2.10 |
2.00 |
|
FTA |
15.70 |
20.50 |
|
PF-Fewer |
16.40 |
17.80 |
|
ST |
7.30 |
5.90 |
|
TO-Fewer |
9.60 |
12.40 |
|
Ftper |
0.70 |
0.81 |
|
ORBper |
0.46 |
0.34 |
|
ORB |
11.20 |
8.10 |
Go to Top
Monaco vs Unicaja Malaga at 19 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Unicaja Malaga for EuroCup, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Monaco |
1.57 |
1.62 |
|
Unicaja Malaga |
2.4 |
2.60 |
|
Monaco HC |
-3.5 |
-4.00 |
|
Unicaja Malaga HC |
+3.5 |
4.00 |
|
Point Line |
159.5 |
156.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
Nanterre 92 |
W |
93 |
65 |
7 |
4 |
W 3 |
88 |
65 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
66 |
64 |
6 |
4 |
W 2 |
69 |
70 |
|
Dec 18 |
A |
Lietkabelis |
W |
88 |
64 |
5 |
4 |
W 1 |
86 |
71 |
|
Dec 16 |
A |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
72 |
76 |
4 |
4 |
L 2 |
72 |
66 |
|
Dec 9 |
H |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
68 |
74 |
4 |
3 |
L 1 |
73 |
69 |
|
Nov 17 |
A |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
75 |
67 |
4 |
2 |
W 1 |
69 |
73 |
|
Oct 28 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
72 |
88 |
3 |
2 |
L 2 |
72 |
77 |
|
Oct 21 |
A |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
85 |
94 |
3 |
1 |
L 1 |
92 |
87 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
H |
Joventut |
L |
86 |
95 |
6 |
3 |
L 2 |
87 |
88 |
|
Dec 16 |
H |
ratiopharm Ulm |
L |
90 |
94 |
6 |
2 |
L 1 |
93 |
94 |
|
Dec 9 |
A |
Germani Brescia |
W |
83 |
79 |
6 |
1 |
W 6 |
79 |
83 |
|
Nov 18 |
A |
Buducnost VOLI |
W |
90 |
66 |
5 |
1 |
W 5 |
91 |
68 |
|
Nov 11 |
H |
Mornar |
W |
98 |
72 |
4 |
1 |
W 4 |
97 |
72 |
|
Oct 28 |
A |
ratiopharm Ulm |
W |
81 |
76 |
3 |
1 |
W 3 |
84 |
76 |
|
Oct 21 |
H |
Germani Brescia |
W |
86 |
69 |
2 |
1 |
W 2 |
82 |
73 |
|
Oct 14 |
H |
Buducnost VOLI |
W |
91 |
87 |
1 |
1 |
W 1 |
92 |
89 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 80 points and the Unicaja Malaga 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Monaco |
Unicaja Malaga |
|
FG% |
0.52 |
0.58 |
|
ASS |
15.30 |
18.80 |
|
DRB |
22.30 |
21.90 |
|
AST-TO |
1.31 |
1.62 |
|
TRB |
33.40 |
30.40 |
|
FTM |
13.70 |
11.20 |
|
BL |
2.30 |
2.00 |
|
FTA |
19.80 |
15.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.50 |
21.00 |
|
ST |
7.20 |
6.40 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.70 |
11.60 |
|
Ftper |
0.69 |
0.74 |
|
ORBper |
0.50 |
0.39 |
|
ORB |
11.10 |
8.60 |
Go to Top
Aquila Basket Trento vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 20 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aquila Basket Trento and Lokomotiv Kuban for EuroCup, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Aquila Basket Trento |
3.45 |
2.89 |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban |
1.31 |
1.53 |
|
Aquila Basket Trento HC |
+7.5 |
5.00 |
|
Lokomotiv Kuban HC |
-7.5 |
-5.00 |
|
Point Line |
158.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
Partizan NIS |
L |
43 |
71 |
6 |
3 |
L 3 |
47 |
71 |
|
Dec 8 |
A |
Cedevita Olimpija |
L |
65 |
87 |
6 |
2 |
L 2 |
70 |
84 |
|
Nov 18 |
H |
Nanterre 92 |
L |
102 |
104 |
6 |
1 |
L 1 |
97 |
105 |
|
Nov 11 |
A |
Promitheas |
W |
89 |
80 |
6 |
0 |
W 5 |
82 |
86 |
|
Nov 4 |
H |
Bursaspor |
W |
89 |
80 |
5 |
0 |
W 4 |
77 |
72 |
|
Oct 20 |
H |
Cedevita Olimpija |
W |
61 |
51 |
4 |
0 |
W 3 |
66 |
50 |
|
Oct 13 |
A |
Nanterre 92 |
W |
71 |
65 |
3 |
0 |
W 2 |
67 |
65 |
|
Oct 6 |
H |
Promitheas |
W |
78 |
51 |
2 |
0 |
W 1 |
72 |
55 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 16 |
H |
Monaco |
W |
76 |
72 |
8 |
2 |
W 3 |
85 |
73 |
|
Dec 9 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
106 |
100 |
7 |
2 |
W 2 |
111 |
109 |
|
Nov 18 |
H |
Lietkabelis |
W |
94 |
90 |
6 |
2 |
W 1 |
92 |
100 |
|
Nov 11 |
H |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
83 |
89 |
5 |
2 |
L 1 |
90 |
83 |
|
Nov 4 |
A |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
114 |
94 |
5 |
1 |
W 4 |
105 |
102 |
|
Oct 28 |
A |
Monaco |
W |
88 |
72 |
4 |
1 |
W 3 |
98 |
73 |
|
Oct 21 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
76 |
61 |
3 |
1 |
W 2 |
80 |
66 |
|
Oct 14 |
A |
Lietkabelis |
W |
105 |
76 |
2 |
1 |
W 1 |
102 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aquila Basket Trento (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aquila Basket Trento will expected to score 79 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Aquila Basket Trento |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
|
FG% |
0.48 |
0.56 |
|
ASS |
16.20 |
19.20 |
|
DRB |
23.30 |
25.60 |
|
AST-TO |
1.50 |
1.41 |
|
TRB |
33.10 |
36.80 |
|
FTM |
11.20 |
16.70 |
|
BL |
2.40 |
3.50 |
|
FTA |
14.60 |
23.60 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.30 |
19.40 |
|
ST |
7.40 |
6.20 |
|
TO-Fewer |
10.80 |
13.60 |
|
Ftper |
0.77 |
0.71 |
|
ORBper |
0.42 |
0.44 |
|
ORB |
9.80 |
11.20 |
Go to Top
Joventut Badalona vs Nanterre at 20 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Joventut Badalona |
1.09 |
1.74 |
|
Nanterre |
7.5 |
2.35 |
|
Joventut Badalona HC |
-15.5 |
-3.00 |
|
Nanterre HC |
+15.5 |
3.00 |
|
Point Line |
167.5 |
164.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
A |
Unicaja |
W |
95 |
86 |
7 |
2 |
W 3 |
95 |
79 |
|
Dec 15 |
H |
UNICS |
W |
84 |
77 |
6 |
2 |
W 2 |
84 |
75 |
|
Dec 8 |
A |
Umana Reyer Venezia |
W |
89 |
75 |
5 |
2 |
W 1 |
80 |
78 |
|
Nov 19 |
A |
Partizan NIS |
L |
75 |
78 |
4 |
2 |
L 2 |
82 |
78 |
|
Nov 17 |
H |
Bahcesehir |
L |
77 |
87 |
4 |
1 |
L 1 |
76 |
86 |
|
Oct 28 |
A |
UNICS |
W |
93 |
91 |
4 |
0 |
W 3 |
93 |
88 |
|
Oct 20 |
H |
Umana Reyer Venezia |
W |
92 |
78 |
3 |
0 |
W 2 |
83 |
81 |
|
Oct 14 |
A |
Bahcesehir |
W |
91 |
72 |
2 |
0 |
W 1 |
89 |
71 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nanterre are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 13 |
H |
Monaco |
L |
65 |
93 |
3 |
6 |
L 3 |
72 |
94 |
|
Dec 23 |
A |
Bursaspor |
L |
92 |
102 |
3 |
5 |
L 2 |
80 |
92 |
|
Dec 22 |
H |
Bursaspor |
L |
90 |
91 |
3 |
4 |
L 1 |
78 |
82 |
|
Dec 8 |
H |
Promitheas |
W |
91 |
70 |
3 |
3 |
W 2 |
84 |
75 |
|
Nov 18 |
A |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
W |
104 |
102 |
2 |
3 |
W 1 |
112 |
107 |
|
Nov 4 |
A |
Cedevita Olimpija |
L |
63 |
75 |
1 |
3 |
L 3 |
68 |
73 |
|
Oct 21 |
A |
Promitheas |
L |
72 |
88 |
1 |
2 |
L 2 |
67 |
94 |
|
Oct 13 |
H |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
L |
65 |
71 |
1 |
1 |
L 1 |
70 |
74 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nanterre.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nanterre and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Nanterre in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 86 points and the Nanterre 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Joventut Badalona |
Nanterre |
|
FG% |
0.57 |
0.52 |
|
ASS |
19.90 |
16.80 |
|
DRB |
22.70 |
23.90 |
|
AST-TO |
1.49 |
1.31 |
|
TRB |
31.30 |
32.20 |
|
FTM |
17.20 |
12.20 |
|
BL |
1.80 |
2.80 |
|
FTA |
21.70 |
18.30 |
|
PF-Fewer |
19.00 |
18.20 |
|
ST |
5.10 |
5.80 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.40 |
12.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.80 |
0.67 |
|
ORBper |
0.38 |
0.35 |
|
ORB |
8.70 |
8.30 |
Go to Top