2021 01 19 BCL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nymburk vs Tofas at 19 January 2021
Zaragoza vs Start Lublin at 19 January 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Szombathely at 19 January 2021
Keravnos Strovolou vs Dijon at 19 January 2021
Cholet vs Hapoel Holon at 20 January 2021
Bakken Bears vs Tenerife at 20 January 2021
Tsmoki Minsk vs AEK Athens at 20 January 2021
Galatasaray vs Sassari at 20 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Nymburk vs Tofas at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nymburk and Tofas for BCL, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nymburk

2.12

1.53

Tofas

1.72

2.87

Nymburk HC

+2.5

-4.50

Tofas HC

-2.5

4.50

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nymburk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

H

JDA Dijon Basket

W

94

54

4

1

94

57

Dec 15

A

Keravnos Strovolou

W

102

69

3

1

90

77

Nov 18

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

96

69

2

1

85

77

Nov 10

A

Tofas SC

W

96

93

1

1

100

88

Nov 3

A

JDA Dijon Basket

L

61

85

0

1

61

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

JDA Dijon Basket

W

90

61

3

2

90

65

Jan 6

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

78

67

2

2

69

74

Nov 18

H

JDA Dijon Basket

L

81

87

1

2

81

92

Nov 10

H

CEZ Nymburk

L

93

96

1

1

101

85

Nov 3

A

Keravnos Strovolou

W

84

74

1

0

74

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nymburk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nymburk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nymburk (in the first graph) and by Tofas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nymburk will expected to score 83 points and the Tofas 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nymburk

Tofas

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

23.20

23.60

DRB

29.40

25.20

AST-TO

1.97

1.74

TRB

42.00

36.40

FTM

15.00

11.80

BL

3.20

3.40

FTA

21.00

14.80

PF-Fewer

15.40

18.00

ST

7.60

9.60

TO-Fewer

11.80

13.60

Ftper

0.71

0.80

ORBper

0.43

0.44

ORB

12.60

11.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zaragoza vs Start Lublin at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Start Lublin for BCL, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.06

1.50

Start Lublin

9

2.99

Zaragoza HC

-17.5

-5.00

Start Lublin HC

+17.5

5.00

Point Line

165.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

98

92

4

1

100

88

Dec 22

A

Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely

L

86

94

3

1

87

89

Dec 16

H

Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely

W

85

76

3

0

86

72

Nov 11

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

78

75

2

0

80

71

Oct 21

A

Wikana Start S.A. Lublin

W

86

85

1

0

83

96

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Start Lublin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

H

Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely

L

59

83

0

5

60

78

Dec 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

65

78

0

4

66

74

Dec 16

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

66

85

0

3

67

81

Nov 3

A

Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely

L

75

84

0

2

76

80

Oct 21

H

Casademont Zaragoza

L

85

86

0

1

81

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Start Lublin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Start Lublin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Start Lublin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 83 points and the Start Lublin 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Start Lublin

FG%

0.56

0.49

ASS

21.40

17.20

DRB

21.60

23.60

AST-TO

1.84

1.04

TRB

27.60

31.00

FTM

13.00

10.40

BL

3.80

2.40

FTA

19.40

15.00

PF-Fewer

18.60

19.20

ST

7.60

7.00

TO-Fewer

11.60

16.60

Ftper

0.67

0.69

ORBper

0.28

0.31

ORB

6.00

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nizhny Novgorod vs Szombathely at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Szombathely for BCL, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nizhny Novgorod

1.35

2.20

Szombathely

3.25

1.83

Nizhny Novgorod HC

-6.5

2.00

Szombathely HC

+6.5

-2.00

Point Line

158.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

H

Casademont Zaragoza

L

92

98

3

2

88

91

Dec 23

H

Wikana Start S.A. Lublin

W

78

65

3

1

76

74

Dec 16

A

Wikana Start S.A. Lublin

W

85

66

2

1

82

75

Dec 9

H

Falco-Vulcano Energia KC Szombathely

W

93

88

1

1

94

83

Nov 11

A

Casademont Zaragoza

L

75

78

0

1

72

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Szombathely are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

Wikana Start S.A. Lublin

W

83

59

3

2

80

67

Dec 22

H

Casademont Zaragoza

W

94

86

2

2

90

80

Dec 16

A

Casademont Zaragoza

L

76

85

1

2

72

79

Dec 9

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

88

93

1

1

90

88

Nov 3

H

Wikana Start S.A. Lublin

W

84

75

1

0

81

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Szombathely.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Szombathely and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Szombathely in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 81 points and the Szombathely 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nizhny Novgorod

Szombathely

FG%

0.58

0.57

ASS

20.60

18.40

DRB

21.40

25.60

AST-TO

1.41

1.30

TRB

29.00

33.80

FTM

7.00

14.00

BL

2.60

2.00

FTA

10.80

17.00

PF-Fewer

20.80

17.40

ST

9.20

5.40

TO-Fewer

14.60

14.20

Ftper

0.65

0.82

ORBper

0.36

0.32

ORB

7.60

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Keravnos Strovolou vs Dijon at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Keravnos Strovolou and Dijon for BCL, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Keravnos Strovolou

7.5

2.65

Dijon

1.09

1.61

Keravnos Strovolou HC

+13.5

4.00

Dijon HC

-13.5

-4.00

Point Line

152.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Keravnos Strovolou are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

A

Tofas SC

L

67

78

0

5

70

74

Dec 15

H

CEZ Nymburk

L

69

102

0

4

75

90

Nov 18

A

CEZ Nymburk

L

69

96

0

3

75

85

Nov 3

H

Tofas SC

L

74

84

0

2

77

79

Oct 20

A

JDA Dijon Basket

L

79

91

0

1

79

97

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

Tofas SC

L

61

90

3

2

64

85

Jan 6

A

CEZ Nymburk

L

54

94

3

1

58

83

Nov 18

A

Tofas SC

W

87

81

3

0

91

76

Nov 3

H

CEZ Nymburk

W

85

61

2

0

92

54

Oct 20

H

Keravnos Strovolou

W

91

79

1

0

80

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Keravnos Strovolou and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Keravnos Strovolou.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Keravnos Strovolou (in the first graph) and by Dijon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Keravnos Strovolou will expected to score 76 points and the Dijon 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Keravnos Strovolou

Dijon

FG%

0.50

0.49

ASS

15.80

17.60

DRB

23.40

21.20

AST-TO

1.01

1.40

TRB

29.80

31.40

FTM

9.80

9.20

BL

1.40

3.80

FTA

12.20

13.00

PF-Fewer

18.00

18.80

ST

5.60

8.80

TO-Fewer

15.60

12.60

Ftper

0.80

0.71

ORBper

0.27

0.48

ORB

6.40

10.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Cholet vs Hapoel Holon at 20 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cholet and Hapoel Holon for BCL, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Cholet

1.42

1.81

Hapoel Holon

2.85

2.23

Cholet HC

-5.5

-2.50

Hapoel Holon HC

+5.5

2.50

Point Line

163.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cholet are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

H

Tsmoki-Minsk

W

89

71

2

3

89

76

Dec 15

A

AEK Athens

W

79

70

1

3

79

67

Nov 17

A

AEK Athens

L

81

83

0

3

81

80

Nov 10

H

Hapoel Unet Holon

L

63

73

0

2

66

75

Nov 4

A

Tsmoki-Minsk

L

75

82

0

1

75

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

H

AEK Athens

W

77

71

3

2

77

68

Dec 15

A

Tsmoki-Minsk

W

75

71

2

2

75

76

Nov 17

H

Tsmoki-Minsk

L

69

79

1

2

69

85

Nov 10

A

Cholet Basket

W

73

63

1

1

77

66

Nov 4

A

AEK Athens

L

96

100

0

1

96

96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cholet and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cholet.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Cholet (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Cholet will expected to score 78 points and the Hapoel Holon 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Cholet

Hapoel Holon

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

18.00

18.40

DRB

21.60

19.60

AST-TO

1.36

1.35

TRB

31.80

26.20

FTM

13.60

17.40

BL

1.80

2.80

FTA

18.20

21.60

PF-Fewer

16.40

22.40

ST

8.20

6.00

TO-Fewer

13.20

13.60

Ftper

0.75

0.81

ORBper

0.47

0.34

ORB

10.20

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bakken Bears vs Tenerife at 20 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bakken Bears and Tenerife for BCL, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bakken Bears

2.6

2.42

Tenerife

1.5

1.70

Bakken Bears HC

+4.5

3.00

Tenerife HC

-4.5

-3.00

Point Line

168.5

172.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bakken Bears are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 5

H

Galatasaray

W

96

78

2

3

83

76

Dec 16

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

93

71

1

3

83

66

Nov 18

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

84

91

0

3

75

84

Nov 11

A

Galatasaray

L

81

91

0

2

70

88

Oct 20

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

73

98

0

1

72

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

115

85

4

1

102

79

Dec 15

A

Galatasaray

W

104

89

3

1

90

87

Nov 17

H

Galatasaray

W

85

72

2