Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Hertha vs Hoffenheim at 19 January 2021
Leverkusen vs Dortmund at 19 January 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Werder Bremen at 19 January 2021
Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 19 January 2021
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich at 20 January 2021
Bielefeld vs Stuttgart at 20 January 2021
Freiburg vs Ein Frankfurt at 20 January 2021
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin at 20 January 2021
Schalke 04 vs FC Koln at 20 January 2021
Hertha vs Hoffenheim at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Hertha |
2.35 |
2.03 |
6.7 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
4.05 |
-3.8 |
|
Hoffenheim |
3.05 |
3.85 |
-6.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.81 |
-5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.23 |
0.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Hertha in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Hertha |
20% |
32% |
19% |
29% |
|
Hoffenheim |
35% |
32% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.57 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.58 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.15 |
|
1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
|
2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
3.38 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |
|
5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
6+ |
26.32 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.49 |
3.89 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.61 |
3.52 |
|
4+ goals |
1.95 |
3.84 |
4.42 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.28 |
3.82 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.49 |
3.89 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.14 |
3.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.65 |
4.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.84 |
4.42 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.64 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.95 |
3.95 |
|
No Goal |
1.71 |
6.90 |
3.72 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.48 |
3.20 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.90 |
3.41 |
Go to Top
Leverkusen vs Dortmund at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leverkusen |
3.22 |
2.50 |
8.9 |
|
Draw |
3.80 |
3.88 |
-0.5 |
|
Dortmund |
2.17 |
2.92 |
-11.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.87 |
-10.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.15 |
4.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (8.9 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leverkusen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Dortmund in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leverkusen |
25% |
34% |
19% |
22% |
|
Dortmund |
30% |
30% |
22% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.28 goals and Dortmund to score 1.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.39 goals and Dortmund to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.98 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.67 |
4+ |
3.42 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |
|
5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.35 |
3.39 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.52 |
2.63 |
|
4+ goals |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
4.07 |
2.79 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.35 |
3.39 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.45 |
2.51 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.64 |
3.60 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
4.02 |
2.85 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.85 |
3.11 |
|
No Goal |
2.09 |
6.33 |
2.75 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.11 |
2.51 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.33 |
2.82 |
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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>
M’gladbach vs Werder Bremen at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
M’gladbach |
1.60 |
2.01 |
-12.7 |
|
Draw |
4.18 |
4.08 |
0.6 |
|
Werder Bremen |
5.64 |
3.88 |
8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.77 |
-1.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.30 |
-3.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Werder Bremen (0.6 %, 8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
M’gladbach |
20% |
32% |
16% |
33% |
|
Werder Bremen |
34% |
33% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.97 goals and Werder Bremen to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.62 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.20 |
|
1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.23 |
|
2 |
5.10 |
4+ |
3.18 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.46 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |
|
5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.61 |
3.66 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.10 |
4.32 |
3.43 |
|
4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.13 |
5.06 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.24 |
3.95 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.61 |
3.66 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.46 |
3.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.55 |
4.13 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.13 |
5.06 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.04 |
3.51 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.97 |
4.20 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
7.08 |
3.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.66 |
3.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
7.08 |
3.14 |
Go to Top
Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mainz and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Mainz |
4.26 |
3.73 |
3.3 |
|
Draw |
3.89 |
4.03 |
-0.9 |
|
Wolfsburg |
1.83 |
2.07 |
-6.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.82 |
-4.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.21 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Mainz in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance at home.
Mainz, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance as a guest.
Wolfsburg, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mainz and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Mainz |
32% |
38% |
16% |
14% |
|
Wolfsburg |
23% |
26% |
24% |
27% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mainz to score 1 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Wolfsburg to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mainz to score 1.12 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the guest team Wolfsburg to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.13 |
|
1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.16 |
|
2 |
4.74 |
4+ |
3.39 |
|
3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |
|
5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |