# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Hertha vs Hoffenheim at 19 January 2021**** Leverkusen vs Dortmund at 19 January 2021**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Werder Bremen at 19 January 2021**** Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 19 January 2021**** Augsburg vs Bayern Munich at 20 January 2021**** Bielefeld vs Stuttgart at 20 January 2021**** Freiburg vs Ein Frankfurt at 20 January 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin at 20 January 2021**** Schalke 04 vs FC Koln at 20 January 2021**

###
Hertha vs Hoffenheim at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
2.35 |
2.03 |
6.7 |

Draw |
3.51 |
4.05 |
-3.8 |

Hoffenheim |
3.05 |
3.85 |
-6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.81 |
-5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.23 |
0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hertha, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
20% |
32% |
19% |
29% |

Hoffenheim |
35% |
32% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.87** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.58 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
26.32 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.49 |
3.89 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.61 |
3.52 |

4+ goals |
1.95 |
3.84 |
4.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.28 |
3.82 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.49 |
3.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.14 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.65 |
4.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.84 |
4.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
4.15 |
3.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.95 |
3.95 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
6.90 |
3.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.48 |
3.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.90 |
3.41 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leverkusen vs Dortmund at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leverkusen** and **Dortmund** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leverkusen |
3.22 |
2.50 |
8.9 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.88 |
-0.5 |

Dortmund |
2.17 |
2.92 |
-11.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.87 |
-10.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.15 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (8.9 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** at home**.

Leverkusen,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Nov |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** as a guest**.

Dortmund,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Nov |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leverkusen** and the red line for guest team, **Dortmund. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leverkusen |
25% |
34% |
19% |
22% |

Dortmund |
30% |
30% |
22% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3** goals in the game and the guest team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.98 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.67 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.35 |
3.39 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.52 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
4.07 |
2.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.35 |
3.39 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.45 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.64 |
3.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.52 |
3.11 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
4.02 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.85 |
3.11 |

No Goal |
2.09 |
6.33 |
2.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.11 |
2.51 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.33 |
2.82 |

####
Go to Top

<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Werder Bremen at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Werder Bremen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
1.60 |
2.01 |
-12.7 |

Draw |
4.18 |
4.08 |
0.6 |

Werder Bremen |
5.64 |
3.88 |
8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.77 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.30 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Werder Bremen (0.6 %, 8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** as a guest**.

Werder Bremen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Werder Bremen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
20% |
32% |
16% |
33% |

Werder Bremen |
34% |
33% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.97 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
5.10 |
4+ |
3.18 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.46 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |

6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.18 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.61 |
3.66 |

2-3 goals |
2.10 |
4.32 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.13 |
5.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.24 |
3.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.61 |
3.66 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.46 |
3.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.55 |
4.13 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.13 |
5.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.04 |
3.51 |

Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.97 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
7.08 |
3.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.66 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
7.08 |
3.14 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mainz vs Wolfsburg at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mainz** and **Wolfsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mainz |
4.26 |
3.73 |
3.3 |

Draw |
3.89 |
4.03 |
-0.9 |

Wolfsburg |
1.83 |
2.07 |
-6.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.82 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.21 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mainz, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** at home**.

Mainz,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolfsburg,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Werder Bremen |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mainz** and the red line for guest team, **Wolfsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mainz |
32% |
38% |
16% |
14% |

Wolfsburg |
23% |
26% |
24% |
27% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mainz** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.74 |
4+ |
3.39 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |