# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reading vs Brentford at 16 January 2021**** QPR vs Wycombe at 16 January 2021**** Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 16 January 2021**** Watford vs Barnsley at 19 January 2021**** Rotherham vs Stoke at 19 January 2021**** Reading vs Coventry at 19 January 2021**** Derby vs Bournemouth at 19 January 2021**** Blackburn vs Swansea at 19 January 2021**** Huddersfield vs Millwall at 20 January 2021**** Birmingham vs Preston at 20 January 2021**** Norwich vs Bristol City at 20 January 2021**** Cardiff vs QPR at 20 January 2021**** Brentford vs Luton at 20 January 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Middlesbrough at 20 January 2021**

###
Reading vs Brentford at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
3.65 |
2.63 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.69 |
-2.8 |

Brentford |
2.08 |
2.87 |
-13.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.12 |
1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.89 |
-6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reading, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 7 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Reading |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
28% |
33% |
24% |
15% |

Brentford |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the guest team **Brentford ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.24 |
3.03 |

2-3 goals |
2.50 |
4.47 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.08 |
3.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.90 |
2.81 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.24 |
3.03 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.22 |
2.49 |

Un 2.5 |
3.05 |
2.70 |
3.31 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.08 |
3.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.93 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
3.09 |
2.71 |
3.25 |

No Goal |
2.29 |
5.80 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.16 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.80 |
2.63 |

####
Go to Top

###
QPR vs Wycombe at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Wycombe** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
1.81 |
1.92 |
-3.2 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.85 |
-0.6 |

Wycombe |
4.30 |
4.55 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.08 |
-8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.92 |
3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** as a guest**.

Wycombe,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Preston |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Wycombe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |

Wycombe |
35% |
43% |
13% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **QPR ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Wycombe** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **QPR ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.92 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
3.72 |
6.12 |

4+ goals |
1.91 |
4.13 |
4.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.84 |
5.41 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.92 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
8.75 |
4.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.54 |
4.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
4.13 |
4.28 |

Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
3.79 |
4.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.20 |
2.74 |
5.57 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
7.14 |
3.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.11 |
4.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.14 |
3.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Coventry** and **Sheffield Weds** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Coventry |
2.25 |
2.03 |
4.8 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.82 |
-5.2 |

Sheffield Weds |
3.47 |
4.08 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.19 |
4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.84 |
-9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Coventry, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** at home**.

Coventry,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Millwall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Preston |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Luton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield Weds,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Jan |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Coventry** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield Weds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Coventry |
25% |
30% |
24% |
22% |

Sheffield Weds |
40% |
38% |
12% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Coventry ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Coventry ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.24 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.15 |
3.32 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.21 |
5.13 |

4+ goals |
2.08 |
4.15 |
3.61 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
4.19 |
4.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.15 |
3.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
8.64 |
3.69 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.59 |
4.45 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.15 |
3.61 |

Un 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.72 |
4.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.76 |
4.75 |

No Goal |
1.84 |
5.56 |
3.63 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.49 |
3.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.56 |
3.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Watford vs Barnsley at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Barnsley** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.79 |
1.85 |
-1.8 |

Draw |
3.60 |
4.02 |
-2.9 |

Barnsley |
4.74 |
4.78 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.01 |
1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.99 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barnsley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnsley** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance** as a guest**.

Barnsley,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Barnsley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
18% |
29% |
31% |
22% |

Barnsley |
35% |
42% |
14% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Barnsley** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.78 |