Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Reading vs Brentford at 16 January 2021
QPR vs Wycombe at 16 January 2021
Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 16 January 2021
Watford vs Barnsley at 19 January 2021
Rotherham vs Stoke at 19 January 2021
Reading vs Coventry at 19 January 2021
Derby vs Bournemouth at 19 January 2021
Blackburn vs Swansea at 19 January 2021
Huddersfield vs Millwall at 20 January 2021
Birmingham vs Preston at 20 January 2021
Norwich vs Bristol City at 20 January 2021
Cardiff vs QPR at 20 January 2021
Brentford vs Luton at 20 January 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Middlesbrough at 20 January 2021
Reading vs Brentford at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Reading |
3.65 |
2.63 |
10.6 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.69 |
-2.8 |
|
Brentford |
2.08 |
2.87 |
-13.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.12 |
1.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.89 |
-6.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading, Over 2.5 (10.6 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Brentford in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Reading |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Reading |
28% |
33% |
24% |
15% |
|
Brentford |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 0.92 goals and Brentford to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.25 goals and Brentford to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.58 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.27 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
|
5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |
|
NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.24 |
3.03 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.50 |
4.47 |
2.66 |
|
4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.08 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.90 |
2.81 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.24 |
3.03 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.22 |
2.49 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.05 |
2.70 |
3.31 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.08 |
3.16 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.93 |
2.79 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.09 |
2.71 |
3.25 |
|
No Goal |
2.29 |
5.80 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.16 |
2.55 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.80 |
2.63 |
Go to Top
QPR vs Wycombe at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
QPR |
1.81 |
1.92 |
-3.2 |
|
Draw |
3.76 |
3.85 |
-0.6 |
|
Wycombe |
4.30 |
4.55 |
-1.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.08 |
-8.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.92 |
3.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
QPR in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Jan |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Preston |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
QPR |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |
|
Wycombe |
35% |
43% |
13% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.76 goals and Wycombe to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.51 goals and Wycombe to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.86 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.41 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.92 |
3.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
3.72 |
6.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.91 |
4.13 |
4.28 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.84 |
5.41 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.92 |
3.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
8.75 |
4.29 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.54 |
4.81 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
4.13 |
4.28 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
3.79 |
4.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.20 |
2.74 |
5.57 |
|
No Goal |
1.68 |
7.14 |
3.77 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.11 |
4.12 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.14 |
3.53 |
Go to Top
Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 16 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Coventry |
2.25 |
2.03 |
4.8 |
|
Draw |
3.19 |
3.82 |
-5.2 |
|
Sheffield Weds |
3.47 |
4.08 |
-4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.19 |
4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.84 |
-9.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Coventry, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Millwall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Preston |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Luton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Jan |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Coventry |
25% |
30% |
24% |
22% |
|
Sheffield Weds |
40% |
38% |
12% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.22 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.42 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.24 |
|
1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.15 |
3.32 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.21 |
5.13 |
|
4+ goals |
2.08 |
4.15 |
3.61 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
4.19 |
4.52 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.15 |
3.32 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
8.64 |
3.69 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.59 |
4.45 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.15 |
3.61 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.72 |
4.22 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.76 |
4.75 |
|
No Goal |
1.84 |
5.56 |
3.63 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.49 |
3.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.56 |
3.53 |
Go to Top
Watford vs Barnsley at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Watford |
1.79 |
1.85 |
-1.8 |
|
Draw |
3.60 |
4.02 |
-2.9 |
|
Barnsley |
4.74 |
4.78 |
-0.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.01 |
1.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.99 |
-6.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Rotherham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Barnsley in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance as a guest.
Barnsley, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Watford |
18% |
29% |
31% |
22% |
|
Barnsley |
35% |
42% |
14% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.59 goals and Barnsley to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.56 goals and Barnsley to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.26 |
|
3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.78 |