Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Dag and Red vs Stockport at 19 January 2021
Eastleigh vs King’s Lynn at 19 January 2021
Yeovil vs Notts County at 19 January 2021
Dag and Red vs Stockport at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dag and Red |
4.06 |
2.49 |
15.5 |
|
Draw |
3.47 |
3.69 |
-1.7 |
|
Stockport |
1.85 |
3.05 |
-21.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.99 |
0.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.01 |
-6.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Dag and Red (15.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Nov |
Boreham Wood |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Altrincham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dag and Red |
22% |
38% |
23% |
17% |
|
Stockport |
29% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 0.88 goals and Stockport to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.34 goals and Stockport to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.03 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.26 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.94 |
3.22 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.53 |
3.75 |
2.96 |
|
4+ goals |
2.66 |
3.36 |
3.07 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.61 |
3.00 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.94 |
3.22 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.58 |
2.51 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.55 |
3.89 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.36 |
3.07 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.81 |
3.05 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.67 |
3.28 |
|
No Goal |
2.00 |
7.03 |
2.80 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |
5.57 |
2.50 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.03 |
2.86 |
Go to Top
Eastleigh vs King’s Lynn at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Eastleigh |
1.94 |
1.98 |
-1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.64 |
4.02 |
-2.6 |
|
King’s Lynn |
3.48 |
4.03 |
-3.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.96 |
-10.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.04 |
3.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Eastleigh in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Woking |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Eastleigh |
24% |
25% |
26% |
25% |
|
King’s Lynn |
35% |
37% |
19% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.73 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Eastleigh to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.52 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Eastleigh to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.91 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |
|
NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.10 |
2.99 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
5.22 |
4.18 |
|
4+ goals |
1.84 |
3.56 |
5.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.49 |
4.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.10 |
2.99 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.08 |
4.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.77 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.84 |
3.56 |
5.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
4.21 |
3.67 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.10 |
2.99 |
5.26 |
|
No Goal |
1.88 |
6.04 |
3.29 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
5.57 |
4.27 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.04 |
2.99 |
Go to Top
Yeovil vs Notts County at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Yeovil |
2.49 |
2.65 |
-2.4 |
|
Draw |
3.52 |
3.68 |
-1.2 |
|
Notts County |
2.54 |
2.85 |
-4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.02 |
-9.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
1.98 |
3.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Yeovil in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
28 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Yeovil |
24% |
37% |
23% |
15% |
|
Notts County |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.4 goals and Notts County to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.29 goals and Notts County to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.94 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.97 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |
|
NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.79 |
3.02 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.67 |
3.83 |
2.74 |
|
4+ goals |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
3.64 |
2.79 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.79 |
3.02 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.54 |
2.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.57 |
3.57 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.90 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.82 |
2.83 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.25 |
2.68 |
3.14 |
|
No Goal |
2.17 |
6.73 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.53 |
2.40 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.73 |
2.65 |
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