2021 01 19 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

GS Lavrio vs Promitheas at 20 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



GS Lavrio vs Promitheas at 20 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

GS Lavrio

2.35

2.22

Promitheas

1.6

1.82

GS Lavrio HC

+3.5

2.00

Promitheas HC

-3.5

-2.00

Point Line

158.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 11

A

Larisa

W

66

58

7

3

W 7

63

59

Jan 3

H

Panathinaikos

W

92

82

6

3

W 6

101

73

Dec 27

H

AEK Athens

W

78

70

5

3

W 5

83

67

Dec 19

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

77

60

4

3

W 4

79

64

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

85

73

Dec 9

H

Aris

W

92

71

2

3

W 2

86

73

Dec 5

A

Peristeri

W

78

70

1

3

W 1

80

72

Nov 22

H

Ionikos Nikaias

L

81

91

0

3

L 2

77

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

87

72

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

87

66

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

77

87

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

86

86

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

60

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

74

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

69

66

Dec 5

A

Aris

L

83

94

1

1

L 1

77

96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 78 points and the Promitheas 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

GS Lavrio

Promitheas

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

15.80

16.10

DRB

20.60

23.70

AST-TO

1.33

1.25

TRB

28.80

29.90

FTM

12.70

14.60

BL

2.60

4.20

FTA

18.50

21.20

PF-Fewer

22.40

18.80

ST

7.70

6.60

TO-Fewer

11.90

12.90

Ftper

0.69

0.69

ORBper

0.40

0.26

ORB

8.20

6.20


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