BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
GS Lavrio vs Promitheas at 20 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
GS Lavrio vs Promitheas at 20 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 20 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
GS Lavrio |
2.35 |
2.22 |
|
Promitheas |
1.6 |
1.82 |
|
GS Lavrio HC |
+3.5 |
2.00 |
|
Promitheas HC |
-3.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
158.5 |
150.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 11 |
A |
Larisa |
W |
66 |
58 |
7 |
3 |
W 7 |
63 |
59 |
|
Jan 3 |
H |
Panathinaikos |
W |
92 |
82 |
6 |
3 |
W 6 |
101 |
73 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
AEK Athens |
W |
78 |
70 |
5 |
3 |
W 5 |
83 |
67 |
|
Dec 19 |
A |
Iraklis B.C. |
W |
77 |
60 |
4 |
3 |
W 4 |
79 |
64 |
|
Dec 12 |
H |
Messolonghi |
W |
87 |
70 |
3 |
3 |
W 3 |
85 |
73 |
|
Dec 9 |
H |
Aris |
W |
92 |
71 |
2 |
3 |
W 2 |
86 |
73 |
|
Dec 5 |
A |
Peristeri |
W |
78 |
70 |
1 |
3 |
W 1 |
80 |
72 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
Ionikos Nikaias |
L |
81 |
91 |
0 |
3 |
L 2 |
77 |
92 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 16 |
A |
AEK Athens |
W |
82 |
75 |
6 |
3 |
W 2 |
87 |
72 |
|
Jan 10 |
H |
Iraklis B.C. |
W |
85 |
61 |
5 |
3 |
W 1 |
87 |
66 |
|
Jan 6 |
A |
Larisa |
L |
81 |
85 |
4 |
3 |
L 1 |
77 |
87 |
|
Jan 3 |
A |
Messolonghi |
W |
88 |
82 |
4 |
2 |
W 2 |
86 |
86 |
|
Dec 26 |
H |
Peristeri |
W |
75 |
58 |
3 |
2 |
W 1 |
77 |
60 |
|
Dec 19 |
A |
Ionikos Nikaias |
L |
77 |
86 |
2 |
2 |
L 1 |
74 |
87 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
Kolossos Rodou |
W |
69 |
67 |
2 |
1 |
W 1 |
69 |
66 |
|
Dec 5 |
A |
Aris |
L |
83 |
94 |
1 |
1 |
L 1 |
77 |
96 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Promitheas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 78 points and the Promitheas 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
GS Lavrio |
Promitheas |
|
FG% |
0.53 |
0.53 |
|
ASS |
15.80 |
16.10 |
|
DRB |
20.60 |
23.70 |
|
AST-TO |
1.33 |
1.25 |
|
TRB |
28.80 |
29.90 |
|
FTM |
12.70 |
14.60 |
|
BL |
2.60 |
4.20 |
|
FTA |
18.50 |
21.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
22.40 |
18.80 |
|
ST |
7.70 |
6.60 |
|
TO-Fewer |
11.90 |
12.90 |
|
Ftper |
0.69 |
0.69 |
|
ORBper |
0.40 |
0.26 |
|
ORB |
8.20 |
6.20 |
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