2021 01 19 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alaves vs Sevilla at 19 January 2021
Cadiz vs Levante at 19 January 2021
Valladolid vs Elche at 19 January 2021
Betis vs Celta at 20 January 2021
Getafe vs Huesca at 20 January 2021
Villarreal vs Granada at 20 January 2021
Eibar vs Ath Madrid at 21 January 2021
Valencia vs Osasuna at 21 January 2021


Alaves vs Sevilla at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alaves

5.47

2.10

29.3

Draw

3.65

3.92

-1.9

Sevilla

1.73

3.72

-30.9

Over 2.5

2.29

1.86

10.1

Under 2.5

1.65

2.16

-14.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (29.3 %, 10.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alaves in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Cadiz

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Dec

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Celta

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Huesca

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Sociedad

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Real Madrid

A

2

1

W

O

G


Sevilla in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Sociedad

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alaves

22%

27%

29%

22%

Sevilla

26%

44%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 0.69 goals and Sevilla to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.52 goals and Sevilla to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.48

1

6.02

2-3

2.00

2

4.20

4+

3.61

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.48

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.61

NoG

2.37

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.14

3.91

2.35

2-3 goals

1.88

4.19

4.38

4+ goals

1.99

3.51

4.69

Ov 1.5

1.92

3.92

4.49

Un 1.5

3.14

3.91

2.35

Ov 2.5

1.65

6.81

4.08

Un 2.5

3.09

2.62

3.39

Ov 3.5

1.99

3.51

4.69

Un 3.5

2.14

4.10

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.14

2.91

5.25

No Goal

2.04

7.40

2.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

5.80

4.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

7.40

2.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cadiz vs Levante at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cadiz

2.99

2.25

11.0

Draw

3.11

3.82

-6.0

Levante

2.62

3.41

-8.8

Over 2.5

2.27

1.96

7.0

Under 2.5

1.66

2.04

-11.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (11 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cadiz in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Alaves

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Valladolid

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Betis

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Getafe

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Dec

Celta

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Barcelona

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G


Levante in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Betis

H

4

3

W

O

G

22 Dec

Huesca

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Nov

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cadiz

23%

31%

26%

20%

Levante

30%

37%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.07 goals and Levante to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.43 goals and Levante to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.02

1

5.59

2-3

2.04

2

4.15

4+

3.83

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.02

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.56

2.90

2-3 goals

2.05

4.29

3.57

4+ goals

2.29

3.35

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.91

3.64

Un 1.5

2.68

3.56

2.90

Ov 2.5

1.87

6.53

3.20

Un 2.5

2.83

2.66

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.35

3.78

Un 3.5

2.23

4.01

3.31

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.79

4.08

No Goal

1.99

6.63

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.40

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.63

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valladolid vs Elche at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

1.90

2.29

-9.0

Draw

3.41

3.82

-3.1

Elche

4.64

3.33

8.5

Over 2.5

2.36

1.92

9.7

Under 2.5

1.62

2.09

-13.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (8.5 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Jan

Valencia

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Nov

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G


Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Jan

Getafe

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Osasuna

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Dec

Granada

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Villarreal

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

23%

30%

27%

20%

Elche

27%

40%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.42 goals and Elche to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.44 goals and Elche to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.22

1

5.75

2-3

2.03

2

4.15

4+

3.72

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.22

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

3.76

2.52

2-3 goals

2.08

4.14

3.60

4+ goals

2.26

3.36

3.84

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.83

3.68

Un 1.5

2.96

3.76

2.52

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.51

3.28

Un 2.5

3.10

2.63

3.37

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.36

3.84

Un 3.5

2.30

4.01

3.16

Goal-Goal

2.44

2.81

4.27

No Goal

2.13

6.98

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.50

3.36

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

6.98

2.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Betis vs Celta at 20 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

2.21

2.26

-1.0

Draw

3.41

3.80

-3.0

Celta

3.39

3.39

0.0

Over 2.5

1.97

2.00

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 Jan

Huesca

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Levante

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Cadiz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Granada

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Eibar

H

0

2

L

U

N


Celta in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Jan

Villarreal

H

0

4

L

O

N

02 Jan

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alaves

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Dec

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

04 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Nov

Granada

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

23%

32%

25%

20%

Celta

32%

35%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.44 goals and Celta to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.41 goals and Celta to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.85

1

5.41

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.47