Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Alaves vs Sevilla at 19 January 2021
Cadiz vs Levante at 19 January 2021
Valladolid vs Elche at 19 January 2021
Betis vs Celta at 20 January 2021
Getafe vs Huesca at 20 January 2021
Villarreal vs Granada at 20 January 2021
Eibar vs Ath Madrid at 21 January 2021
Valencia vs Osasuna at 21 January 2021
Alaves vs Sevilla at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Alaves |
5.47 |
2.10 |
29.3 |
|
Draw |
3.65 |
3.92 |
-1.9 |
|
Sevilla |
1.73 |
3.72 |
-30.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
1.86 |
10.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.16 |
-14.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (29.3 %, 10.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Alaves in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Celta |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Sevilla in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance as a guest.
Sevilla, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Sevilla.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Alaves |
22% |
27% |
29% |
22% |
|
Sevilla |
26% |
44% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 0.69 goals and Sevilla to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.52 goals and Sevilla to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.48 |
|
1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.61 |
|
3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |
|
5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.61 |
|
NoG |
2.37 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.14 |
3.91 |
2.35 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.88 |
4.19 |
4.38 |
|
4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.51 |
4.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
3.92 |
4.49 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
3.91 |
2.35 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
6.81 |
4.08 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
2.62 |
3.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.51 |
4.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
4.10 |
3.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.14 |
2.91 |
5.25 |
|
No Goal |
2.04 |
7.40 |
2.67 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
5.80 |
4.16 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
7.40 |
2.51 |
Go to Top
Cadiz vs Levante at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cadiz |
2.99 |
2.25 |
11.0 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.82 |
-6.0 |
|
Levante |
2.62 |
3.41 |
-8.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.96 |
7.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.04 |
-11.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (11 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cadiz in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Celta |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Elche |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Levante in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Betis |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cadiz |
23% |
31% |
26% |
20% |
|
Levante |
30% |
37% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.07 goals and Levante to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.43 goals and Levante to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.02 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.83 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.56 |
2.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.05 |
4.29 |
3.57 |
|
4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.35 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.91 |
3.64 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.56 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.53 |
3.20 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.66 |
3.68 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.35 |
3.78 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.23 |
4.01 |
3.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.79 |
4.08 |
|
No Goal |
1.99 |
6.63 |
2.88 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.40 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.63 |
2.83 |
Go to Top
Valladolid vs Elche at 19 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Valladolid |
1.90 |
2.29 |
-9.0 |
|
Draw |
3.41 |
3.82 |
-3.1 |
|
Elche |
4.64 |
3.33 |
8.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.36 |
1.92 |
9.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.09 |
-13.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (8.5 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Valladolid in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
11 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Granada |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Valladolid |
23% |
30% |
27% |
20% |
|
Elche |
27% |
40% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.42 goals and Elche to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.44 goals and Elche to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.22 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.72 |
|
3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.22 |
|
5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |
|
NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.96 |
3.76 |
2.52 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.14 |
3.60 |
|
4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.36 |
3.84 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.83 |
3.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
3.76 |
2.52 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.51 |
3.28 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.63 |
3.37 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.36 |
3.84 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
4.01 |
3.16 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.44 |
2.81 |
4.27 |
|
No Goal |
2.13 |
6.98 |
2.59 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.50 |
3.36 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
6.98 |
2.53 |
Go to Top
Betis vs Celta at 20 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Betis |
2.21 |
2.26 |
-1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.41 |
3.80 |
-3.0 |
|
Celta |
3.39 |
3.39 |
0.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.00 |
-0.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.00 |
-2.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
11 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Levante |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Nov |
Eibar |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Celta in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Huesca |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
04 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Betis |
23% |
32% |
25% |
20% |
|
Celta |
32% |
35% |
21% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.44 goals and Celta to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.41 goals and Celta to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.47 |