2021 01 19 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Northampton vs Oxford at 16 January 2021
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 January 2021
Lincoln vs Gillingham at 19 January 2021
Sunderland vs Plymouth at 19 January 2021
Blackpool vs Northampton at 19 January 2021
Crewe vs Bristol Rvs at 19 January 2021
Doncaster vs Rochdale at 19 January 2021
Hull vs Accrington at 19 January 2021
Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon at 19 January 2021
Peterboro vs Charlton at 19 January 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Fleetwood Town at 19 January 2021


Northampton vs Oxford at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

4.04

2.65

13.0

Draw

3.60

3.82

-1.6

Oxford

1.90

2.78

-16.7

Over 2.5

1.92

1.94

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.89

2.07

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton (13 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Gillingham

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Oxford

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G


Oxford in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Burton

A

5

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Plymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Northampton

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Ipswich

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Swindon

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

29%

28%

25%

18%

Oxford

24%

37%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 0.93 goals and Oxford to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the guest team Oxford to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.32 goals and Oxford to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.05

1

5.65

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.70

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.53

3.53

2.31

2-3 goals

2.42

4.57

2.72

4+ goals

2.50

3.14

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.93

2.97

Un 1.5

3.53

3.53

2.31

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.01

2.79

Un 2.5

3.67

2.75

2.75

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.14

3.55

Un 3.5

2.71

4.15

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.81

3.74

No Goal

2.64

6.60

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.03

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.86

6.60

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Lincoln at 16 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.00

2.82

2.1

Draw

3.25

3.80

-4.5

Lincoln

2.42

2.61

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.19

1.96

5.4

Under 2.5

1.68

2.04

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Charlton

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Dec

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G


Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

30%

29%

24%

17%

Lincoln

23%

38%

25%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.06 goals and Lincoln to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Lincoln to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

4.02

1

5.56

2-3

2.06

2

4.15

4+

3.76

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.02

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.72

3.61

2.20

2-3 goals

2.66

4.42

2.52

4+ goals

2.53

3.17

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.61

3.88

2.79

Un 1.5

3.72

3.61

2.20

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.08

2.63

Un 2.5

4.02

2.74

2.59

Ov 3.5

2.53

3.17

3.45

Un 3.5

2.94

4.11

2.40

Goal-Goal

2.77

2.78

3.58

No Goal

2.88

6.68

1.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.12

2.85

NG+Un 2.5

3.11

6.68

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Lincoln vs Gillingham at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

1.67

2.13

-12.9

Draw

3.76

3.80

-0.3

Gillingham

5.28

3.75

7.7

Over 2.5

2.08

2.07

0.2

Under 2.5

1.77

1.93

-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (7.7 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G


Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Burton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Northampton

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Accrington

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

21%

33%

27%

18%

Gillingham

35%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.65 goals and Gillingham to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.42 goals and Gillingham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.76

1

5.24

2-3

2.01

2

3.97

4+

4.24

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.76

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.55

3.50

2-3 goals

1.98

4.22

3.89

4+ goals

2.31

3.32

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.88

3.84

Un 1.5

2.31

3.55

3.50

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.79

3.21

Un 2.5

2.49

2.68

4.43

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.32

3.75

Un 3.5

2.08

3.96

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.71

4.04

No Goal

1.79

6.49

3.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.56

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.49

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sunderland vs Plymouth at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.62

1.97

-11.0

Draw

3.89

3.79

0.7

Plymouth

5.54

4.37

4.8

Over 2.5

1.93

2.20

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.87

1.83

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Plymouth, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 4.8 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Lincoln

A

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G


Plymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Oxford

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol Rvs

A

0

3

L

O

N

05 Dec

Ipswich

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

18%

38%

26%

18%

Plymouth

39%

35%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.77 goals and Plymouth to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.45 goals and Plymouth to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.57

1

4.74

2-3

1.96

2

3.76

4+

4.76

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.57

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-