2021 01 19 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cheltenham vs Newport County at 19 January 2021
Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 19 January 2021
Harrogate vs Exeter at 19 January 2021
Morecambe vs Walsall at 19 January 2021
Southend vs Cambridge at 19 January 2021
Tranmere vs Forest Green at 19 January 2021


Cheltenham vs Newport County at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Newport County for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

2.36

2.51

-2.5

Draw

3.14

3.60

-4.1

Newport County

3.19

3.09

1.0

Over 2.5

2.01

2.23

-4.9

Under 2.5

1.80

1.81

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newport County (1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Colchester

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Barrow

A

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G

01 Dec

Bradford

A

2

1

W

O

G


Newport County in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance as a guest.
Newport County, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Salford

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Oldham

H

2

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Grimsby

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Forest Green

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Newport County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

27%

35%

23%

15%

Newport County

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.34 goals and Newport County to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.25 goals and Newport County to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.40

1

4.78

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.67

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.40

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.46

3.00

2-3 goals

2.42

3.81

3.08

4+ goals

2.55

3.34

3.24

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.66

3.12

Un 1.5

2.65

3.46

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.09

7.00

2.64

Un 2.5

3.00

2.58

3.58

Ov 3.5

2.55

3.34

3.24

Un 3.5

2.50

3.67

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.60

3.58

No Goal

2.17

5.87

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.81

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.87

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

2.11

2.27

-3.3

Draw

3.33

3.72

-3.1

Stevenage

3.56

3.42

1.1

Over 2.5

2.11

2.15

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.74

1.87

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Bolton

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Barrow

H

4

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Mansfield

A

3

3

D

O

G

01 Dec

Colchester

A

1

1

D

U

G


Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Cambridge

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Carlisle

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Port Vale

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

26%

29%

29%

15%

Stevenage

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.39 goals and Stevenage to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Crawley Town to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.34 goals and Stevenage to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.62

1

5.21

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

4.52

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.29

2.88

2-3 goals

1.97

4.57

3.64

4+ goals

2.51

2.95

3.81

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.91

3.69

Un 1.5

2.88

3.29

2.88

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.20

3.25

Un 2.5

2.79

2.76

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.51

2.95

3.81

Un 3.5

2.22

4.02

3.33

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.70

4.24

No Goal

2.07

5.95

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.20

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

5.95

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Harrogate vs Exeter at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

3.23

2.59

7.7

Draw

3.54

3.55

-0.1

Exeter

2.17

3.00

-12.7

Over 2.5

1.83

2.29

-11.0

Under 2.5

1.98

1.77

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Exeter

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Mansfield

A

1

0

W

U

N


Exeter in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Bolton

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Forest Green

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Tranmere

H

5

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Cheltenham

A

3

5

L

O

G

01 Dec

Grimsby

A

4

1

W

O

G

24 Nov

Colchester

H

6

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

28%

36%

22%

14%

Exeter

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.12 goals and Exeter to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Exeter to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.22 goals and Exeter to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.28

1

4.61

2-3

2.04

2

3.86

4+

4.83

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.28

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.47

2.99

2-3 goals

2.56

3.70

2.95

4+ goals

2.59

3.34

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.59

3.01

Un 1.5

2.65

3.47

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.15

7.05

2.54

Un 2.5

3.08

2.56

3.50

Ov 3.5

2.59

3.34

3.18

Un 3.5

2.59

3.61

2.96

Goal-Goal

3.11

2.55

3.50

No Goal

2.23

5.76

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.84

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

5.76

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Morecambe vs Walsall at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

2.43

2.30

2.3

Draw

3.43

3.64

-1.7

Walsall

2.84

3.45

-6.2

Over 2.5

1.95

2.22

-6.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.82

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Grimsby

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Salford

A

1

2

L

O

G


Walsall in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Carlisle

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Salford

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Port Vale

H

4

3

W

O

G

15 Dec

Oldham

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Bolton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Tranmere

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

25%

35%

24%

16%

Walsall

33%

37%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.31 goals and Walsall to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.32 goals and Walsall to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.45

1

4.81

2-3

2.00

2

3.85

4+

4.69

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.45

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

3.54

3.19

2-3 goals

2.22

3.90

3.42