# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Cheltenham vs Newport County at 19 January 2021**** Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 19 January 2021**** Harrogate vs Exeter at 19 January 2021**** Morecambe vs Walsall at 19 January 2021**** Southend vs Cambridge at 19 January 2021**** Tranmere vs Forest Green at 19 January 2021**

###
Cheltenham vs Newport County at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Newport County** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
2.36 |
2.51 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
3.14 |
3.60 |
-4.1 |

Newport County |
3.19 |
3.09 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.23 |
-4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.81 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newport County (1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** as a guest**.

Newport County,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Newport County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
27% |
35% |
23% |
15% |

Newport County |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Newport County** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.46 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.81 |
3.08 |

4+ goals |
2.55 |
3.34 |
3.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.66 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.46 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.00 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
2.58 |
3.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.34 |
3.24 |

Un 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.67 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.60 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
5.87 |
2.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.81 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.87 |
2.75 |

####
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###
Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
2.11 |
2.27 |
-3.3 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.72 |
-3.1 |

Stevenage |
3.56 |
3.42 |
1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.15 |
-0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.87 |
-4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage (1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Nov |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
26% |
29% |
29% |
15% |

Stevenage |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Crawley Town ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.29 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
1.97 |
4.57 |
3.64 |

4+ goals |
2.51 |
2.95 |
3.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.91 |
3.69 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.29 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.20 |
3.25 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.76 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
2.95 |
3.81 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.02 |
3.33 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.70 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.95 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.20 |
3.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.95 |
2.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Harrogate vs Exeter at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
3.23 |
2.59 |
7.7 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.55 |
-0.1 |

Exeter |
2.17 |
3.00 |
-12.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.29 |
-11.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.77 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Harrogate, Under 2.5 (7.7 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Colchester |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
28% |
36% |
22% |
14% |

Exeter |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.5 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Exeter ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.47 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.56 |
3.70 |
2.95 |

4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.59 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.47 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
7.05 |
2.54 |

Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.56 |
3.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.34 |
3.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.61 |
2.96 |

Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.55 |
3.50 |

No Goal |
2.23 |
5.76 |
2.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.84 |
2.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.76 |
2.68 |

####
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###
Morecambe vs Walsall at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **19 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
2.43 |
2.30 |
2.3 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.64 |
-1.7 |

Walsall |
2.84 |
3.45 |
-6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.22 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.82 |
0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Salford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
25% |
35% |
24% |
16% |

Walsall |
33% |
37% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.54 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.90 |
3.42 |