2021 01 19 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Marseille vs Lens at 20 January 2021


Marseille vs Lens at 20 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

2.07

2.09

-0.5

Draw

3.48

3.89

-3.0

Lens

3.69

3.79

-0.7

Over 2.5

2.05

2.22

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.79

1.82

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Jan

Montpellier

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Angers

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N


Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Strasbourg

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Lyon

A

2

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Monaco

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Montpellier

H

2

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

26%

24%

38%

12%

Lens

37%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.45 goals and Lens to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.37 goals and Lens to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.56

1

5.43

2-3

1.93

2

3.72

4+

4.98

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.56

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.16

2.90

2.96

2-3 goals

1.59

6.02

4.84

4+ goals

3.09

2.75

3.19

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.52

4.23

Un 1.5

3.16

2.90

2.96

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.16

3.52

Un 2.5

2.39

3.01

4.01

Ov 3.5

3.09

2.75

3.19

Un 3.5

1.93

4.37

3.96

Goal-Goal

2.29

2.91

4.57

No Goal

1.94

5.55

3.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.15

3.72

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

5.55

3.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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