2021 01 19 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aston Villa vs Everton at 17 January 2021
West Ham vs West Brom at 19 January 2021
Leicester vs Chelsea at 19 January 2021
Man City vs Aston Villa at 20 January 2021
Leeds vs Southampton at 20 January 2021
Fulham vs Man United at 20 January 2021
Liverpool vs Burnley at 21 January 2021


Aston Villa vs Everton at 17 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 17 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

3.65

2.48

12.9

Draw

3.93

3.66

1.9

Everton

1.97

3.10

-18.5

Over 2.5

1.65

2.06

-12.1

Under 2.5

2.27

1.94

7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.9 %, 1.9 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Jan

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

West Brom

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Dec

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G


Everton in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Jan

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Chelsea

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Nov

Leeds

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

25%

40%

12%

24%

Everton

31%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.12 goals and Everton to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the guest team Everton to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.34 goals and Everton to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.47

1

4.74

2-3

2.20

2

4.42

4+

3.91

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.47

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.74

3.31

2-3 goals

3.05

3.24

2.75

4+ goals

1.97

4.65

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.64

3.01

Un 1.5

2.32

3.74

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.99

8.80

2.60

Un 2.5

3.21

2.37

3.75

Ov 3.5

1.97

4.65

3.61

Un 3.5

2.72

3.42

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.65

3.40

No Goal

2.06

6.25

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

6.85

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.25

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Ham vs West Brom at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Ham

1.59

1.58

0.4

Draw

4.11

4.46

-1.9

West Brom

6.10

6.99

-2.1

Over 2.5

1.91

1.92

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.93

2.08

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Ham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Burnley

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Jan

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Southampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Brighton

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Dec

Chelsea

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G


West Brom in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Arsenal

H

0

4

L

O

N

29 Dec

Leeds

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Dec

Liverpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Aston Villa

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Man City

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

1

5

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Ham

12%

36%

16%

36%

West Brom

46%

36%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.85 goals and West Brom to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.75 goals and West Brom to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

3.82

1

4.85

2-3

2.02

2

4.59

4+

4.08

3

3.62

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.82

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.62

4.68

5.95

2-3 goals

1.67

3.92

6.86

4+ goals

1.39

5.98

8.75

Ov 1.5

1.57

4.43

7.39

Un 1.5

1.62

4.68

5.95

Ov 2.5

1.31

12.71

6.28

Un 2.5

2.03

2.64

7.87

Ov 3.5

1.39

5.98

8.75

Un 3.5

1.65

4.15

6.52

Goal-Goal

2.04

2.86

6.21

No Goal

1.31

9.34

7.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.50

8.59

4.57

NG+Un 2.5

1.49

9.34

5.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Leicester vs Chelsea at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

2.92

2.61

4.1

Draw

3.47

3.86

-2.9

Chelsea

2.45

2.80

-5.1

Over 2.5

1.86

1.93

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.99

2.07

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester (4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Southampton

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Newcastle

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Crystal Palace

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Man United

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Tottenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Everton

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Brighton

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G


Chelsea in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G

28 Dec

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Arsenal

A

1

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

West Ham

H

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Leeds

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

28%

27%

28%

17%

Chelsea

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.22 goals and Chelsea to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.32 goals and Chelsea to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.98

1

5.81

2-3

2.10

2

4.33

4+

3.70

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.98

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.30

3.18

2.61

2-3 goals

2.22

5.18

2.81

4+ goals

2.93

3.10

2.97

Ov 1.5

2.43

4.17

2.86

Un 1.5

3.30

3.18

2.61

Ov 2.5

2.23

5.93

2.61

Un 2.5

3.17

2.82

3.03

Ov 3.5

2.93

3.10

2.97

Un 3.5

2.50

4.26

2.74

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.88

3.41

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

4.86

2.80

NG+Un 2.5

2.57

6.11

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man City vs Aston Villa at 20 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.26

2.23

-34.5

Draw

6.14

3.88

9.5

Aston Villa

11.48

3.40

20.7

Over 2.5

1.47

1.97

-17.3

Under 2.5

2.61

2.03

10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 20.7 %, 10.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Crystal Palace

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Jan

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Chelsea

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

West Brom

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N


Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Jan

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

West Brom

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Dec

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Wolves

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Nov

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

24%

27%

32%

17%

Aston Villa

32%

35%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.68 goals and Aston Villa to score 0.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.2 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.42 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.02

1

5.81

2-3

2.02

2

4.08

4+

3.92

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.33

Un 1.5

4.02

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-