2021 01 19 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Guimaraes vs Nacional at 21 January 2021


Guimaraes vs Nacional at 21 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 21 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

1.67

1.86

-6.1

Draw

3.65

3.94

-2.0

Nacional

5.13

4.81

1.3

Over 2.5

2.13

2.04

2.1

Under 2.5

1.73

1.96

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Dec

Porto

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

Santa Clara

A

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sp Lisbon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N


Nacional in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Moreirense

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Dec

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Dec

Santa Clara

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Gil Vicente

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

19%

31%

26%

24%

Nacional

36%

44%

10%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.61 goals and Nacional to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.56 goals and Nacional to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.83

1

5.15

2-3

2.00

2

4.02

4+

4.18

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.83

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.90

3.18

2-3 goals

1.69

3.62

7.46

4+ goals

1.84

4.78

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.74

3.93

5.87

Un 1.5

2.33

3.90

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.48

9.80

4.54

Un 2.5

2.49

2.49

5.10

Ov 3.5

1.84

4.78

4.05

Un 3.5

1.87

3.71

5.11

Goal-Goal

2.13

2.78

5.87

No Goal

1.64

7.13

4.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

7.68

4.31

NG+Un 2.5

1.81

7.13

3.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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