Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mirandes vs Vallecano at 19 January 2021

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Mirandes vs Vallecano at 19 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Vallecano for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (15.1 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

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Vallecano in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance as a guest.
Vallecano, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Vallecano.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 0.9 goals and Vallecano to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.32 goals and Vallecano to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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