Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Udinese vs Atalanta at 20 January 2021
Udinese vs Atalanta at 20 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Udinese |
4.49 |
2.94 |
11.7 |
|
Draw |
3.95 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
|
Atalanta |
1.78 |
2.52 |
-16.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.95 |
-6.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.06 |
2.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Udinese, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.7 %, 1 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Udinese in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Benevento |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Crotone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Torino |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance as a guest.
Atalanta, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Parma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Roma |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Fiorentina |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Udinese |
33% |
21% |
34% |
11% |
|
Atalanta |
29% |
25% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 0.94 goals and Atalanta to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Atalanta to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.23 goals and Atalanta to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
4.10 |
|
1 |
6.85 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.65 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |
|
5 |
10.53 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.94 |
2.49 |
2.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.19 |
8.91 |
2.32 |
|
4+ goals |
4.72 |
2.47 |
2.61 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.72 |
4.58 |
2.42 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |
2.49 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.88 |
4.62 |
2.29 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.00 |
3.20 |
2.83 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |
2.47 |
2.61 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
4.77 |
2.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.25 |
2.85 |
2.93 |
|
No Goal |
2.71 |
5.39 |
2.25 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.88 |
3.76 |
2.59 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
5.39 |
2.51 |
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