2021 01 19 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Villeurbanne vs Olympiacos at 19 January 2021
Villeurbanne vs Valencia at 21 January 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Bayern Munich at 21 January 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid at 21 January 2021
Zenit vs Anadolu Efes at 21 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Khimki at 21 January 2021
Baskonia vs Alba Berlin at 22 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Fenerbahce at 22 January 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Barcelona at 22 January 2021
Zalgiris vs Olympiacos at 22 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Villeurbanne vs Olympiacos at 19 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 19 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

2.22

3.43

Olympiacos

1.7

1.41

Villeurbanne HC

+2.5

6.00

Olympiacos HC

-2.5

-6.00

Point Line

155.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

A

Olympiacos

W

69

63

6

13

W 1

68

63

Jan 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

71

88

5

13

L 4

67

87

Jan 8

H

Anadolu Efes

L

80

102

5

12

L 3

82

102

Dec 30

A

Fenerbahce

L

59

81

5

11

L 2

60

84

Dec 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

78

87

5

10

L 1

78

81

Dec 18

H

BC Khimki

W

90

84

5

9

W 2

78

85

Dec 16

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

84

81

4

9

W 1

85

80

Dec 11

A

Bayern Munich

L

62

76

3

9

L 3

64

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

63

69

10

9

L 1

62

73

Jan 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

89

87

10

8

W 3

90

86

Jan 8

H

Bayern Munich

W

84

82

9

8

W 2

87

82

Dec 29

A

BC Khimki

W

105

88

8

8

W 1

90

89

Dec 23

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

84

7

8

L 3

78

88

Dec 18

H

Real Madrid

L

82

86

7

7

L 2

84

83

Dec 16

H

Valencia Basket

L

85

96

7

6

L 1

83

93

Dec 10

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

79

7

5

W 2

82

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Villeurbanne (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Villeurbanne will expected to score 77 points and the Olympiacos 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Villeurbanne

Olympiacos

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

16.20

17.10

DRB

20.70

20.50

AST-TO

1.09

1.31

TRB

27.90

27.80

FTM

11.60

14.90

BL

2.90

2.80

FTA

15.70

18.90

PF-Fewer

21.80

21.70

ST

7.00

6.70

TO-Fewer

14.80

13.10

Ftper

0.74

0.79

ORBper

0.35

0.36

ORB

7.20

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Villeurbanne vs Valencia at 21 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Valencia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 21 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

2.25

3.25

Valencia

1.67

1.44

Villeurbanne HC

+2.5

5.50

Valencia HC

-2.5

-5.50

Point Line

158.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

A

Olympiacos

W

69

63

6

13

W 1

68

63

Jan 13

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

71

88

5

13

L 4

67

87

Jan 8

H

Anadolu Efes

L

80

102

5

12

L 3

82

102

Dec 30

A

Fenerbahce

L

59

81

5

11

L 2

60

84

Dec 22

H

CSKA Moscow

L

78

87

5

10

L 1

78

81

Dec 18

H

BC Khimki

W

90

84

5

9

W 2

78

85

Dec 16

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

84

81

4

9

W 1

85

80

Dec 11

A

Bayern Munich

L

62

76

3

9

L 3

64

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

91

71

11

9

W 1

92

75

Jan 12

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

80

95

10

9

L 3

80

91

Jan 7

A

FC Barcelona

L

72

89

10

8

L 2

77

86

Dec 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

70

71

10

7

L 1

70

71

Dec 23

H

BC Khimki

W

88

82

10

6

W 1

76

83

Dec 18

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

73

76

9

6

L 1

74

81

Dec 16

A

Olympiacos

W

96

85

9

5

W 2

95

85

Dec 10

H

Anadolu Efes

W

76

74

8

5

W 1

78

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Villeurbanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Villeurbanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Villeurbanne (in the first graph) and by Valencia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Villeurbanne will expected to score 78 points and the Valencia 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Villeurbanne

Valencia

FG%

0.54

0.58

ASS

16.20

20.50

DRB

20.70

19.60

AST-TO

1.09

1.69

TRB

27.90

26.80

FTM

11.60

13.80

BL

2.90

1.70

FTA

15.70

16.60

PF-Fewer

21.80

19.10

ST

7.00

6.30

TO-Fewer

14.80

12.10

Ftper

0.74

0.83

ORBper

0.35

0.37

ORB

7.20

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Bayern Munich at 21 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Bayern Munich for EuroLeague, which will take place on 21 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.42

2.26

Bayern Munich

3

1.79

Olimpia Milano HC

-5.5

2.50

Bayern Munich HC

+5.5

-2.50

Point Line

159.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 14

A

Alba Berlin

W

84

70

12

7

W 3

80

72

Jan 12

H

Valencia Basket

W

95

80

11

7

W 2

92

77

Jan 8

A

Real Madrid

W

80

76

10

7

W 1

82

73

Dec 30

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

91

9

7

L 2

87

85

Dec 23

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

79

84

9

6

L 1

80

84

Dec 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

72

69

9

5

W 2

74

69

Dec 15

A

Fenerbahce

W

79

71

8

5

W 1

80

74

Dec 11

A

FC Barcelona

L

71

87

7

5

L 1

76

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

Real Madrid

L

76

81

12

8

L 1

78

78

Jan 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

80

12

7

W 1

89

82

Jan 8

A

Olympiacos

L

82

84

11

7

L 1

81

84

Dec 30

H

FC Barcelona

W

90

77

11

6

W 1

96

75

Dec 23

A

Zalgiris

L

73

74

10

6

L 1

75

74

Dec 18

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

66

10

5

W 1

78

66

Dec 16

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

79

9

5

L 1

81

81

Dec 11

H

LDLC ASVEL

W

76

62

9

4

W 2

75

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Bayern Munich in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 79 points and the Bayern Munich 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Bayern Munich

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

15.80

16.60

DRB

20.80

21.40

AST-TO

1.41

1.25

TRB

27.50

28.30

FTM

13.50

15.90

BL

2.50

1.80

FTA

17.20

19.80

PF-Fewer

20.30

20.60

ST

6.90

6.00

TO-Fewer

11.20

13.30

Ftper

0.78

0.80

ORBper

0.32

0.33

ORB

6.70

7.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid at 21 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid for EuroLeague, which will take place on 21 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.37

2.09

Real Madrid

1.62

1.92

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+3.5

1.50

Real Madrid HC

-3.5

-1.50

Point Line

155.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 14

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

91

82

9

11

W 1

92

82

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

86

89

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

81

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

78

80

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

84

80

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

73

65

Dec 16

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

81

84

5

9

L 1

80

89

Dec 10

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

67

63

5

8

W 2

68

63

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 18

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

77

79

13

7

L 1

78

84

Jan 15

A

Bayern Munich

W

81

76

13

6

W 1

84

76

Jan 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

76

80

12

6

L 1

76

77

Dec 29

A

Anadolu Efes

W

73

65

12

5

W 6

75

65

Dec 22

H

Alba Berlin

W

91

62

11

5

W 5

86

64

Dec 18

A

Olympiacos

W

86

82

10

5

W 4

85

82

Dec 15

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

97

93

9

5

W 3

91

92

Dec 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

79

72

8

5

W 2

85

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Real Madrid in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 79 points and the Real Madrid 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Real Madrid

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

15.80

19.30

DRB

23.40

23.20

AST-TO

1.17

1.64

TRB

31.80

31.50

FTM

13.40

12.00

BL

2.50

3.50

FTA

17.40

14.70

PF-Fewer

19.80

19.10

ST

7.30

6.90

TO-Fewer

13.50

11.80

Ftper

0.77

0.82

ORBper

0.36

0.36

ORB

8.50

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit vs Anadolu Efes at 21 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Anadolu Efes for EuroLeague, which will take place on 21 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

2.1

15.67

Anadolu Efes

1.78

1.07

Zenit HC

+1.5

11.50

Anadolu Efes HC

-1.5

-11.50

Point Line

154.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

Zalgiris

W

77

65

12

6

W 1

79

64

Jan 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

80

82

11

6

L 1

82

82

Jan 7

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

77

11

5

W 3

84

76

Dec 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

78