# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Dortmund at 22 January 2021**** Bielefeld vs Ein Frankfurt at 23 January 2021**** Freiburg vs Stuttgart at 23 January 2021**** Hertha vs Werder Bremen at 23 January 2021**** Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg at 23 January 2021**** Mainz vs RB Leipzig at 23 January 2021**** Augsburg vs Union Berlin at 23 January 2021**** Hoffenheim vs FC Koln at 24 January 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich at 24 January 2021**

<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Dortmund at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Dortmund** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
3.21 |
2.33 |
11.8 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.92 |
-1.5 |

Dortmund |
2.14 |
3.16 |
-15.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.82 |
-11.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.21 |
5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **M’gladbach, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** as a guest**.

Dortmund,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Dortmund. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
23% |
33% |
17% |
27% |

Dortmund |
31% |
31% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.11** goals in the game and the guest team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Dortmund** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.22 |

2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
3.30 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.30 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.43 |
3.38 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
4.34 |
2.80 |

4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.79 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
4.10 |
3.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.43 |
3.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.84 |
2.85 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.58 |
3.66 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.79 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.97 |
2.98 |

Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.89 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.53 |
2.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.34 |
2.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.53 |
2.82 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bielefeld vs Ein Frankfurt at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bielefeld** and **Ein Frankfurt** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bielefeld |
4.36 |
2.99 |
10.5 |

Draw |
3.81 |
3.83 |
-0.1 |

Ein Frankfurt |
1.80 |
2.48 |
-15.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.86 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.16 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bielefeld, Under 2.5 (10.5 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bielefeld** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Bielefeld** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance** at home**.

Bielefeld,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** as a guest**.

Ein Frankfurt,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bielefeld** and the red line for guest team, **Ein Frankfurt. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bielefeld |
28% |
35% |
20% |
17% |

Ein Frankfurt |
24% |
32% |
23% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the guest team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
2.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.85 |
3.62 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
3.01 |
4.15 |
2.34 |

4+ goals |
3.11 |
3.52 |
2.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
3.88 |
2.42 |

Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
3.62 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.46 |
2.13 |

Un 2.5 |
3.49 |
2.59 |
3.05 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |
3.52 |
2.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.96 |
2.45 |

Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.81 |
2.83 |

No Goal |
2.58 |
6.80 |
2.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
5.28 |
2.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.64 |
6.80 |
2.31 |

####
Go to Top

###
Freiburg vs Stuttgart at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Freiburg** and **Stuttgart** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Freiburg |
2.62 |
2.01 |
11.6 |

Draw |
3.68 |
4.12 |
-2.9 |

Stuttgart |
2.53 |
3.86 |
-13.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.75 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.34 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Freiburg, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** at home**.

Freiburg,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** as a guest**.

Stuttgart,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Dortmund |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Freiburg** and the red line for guest team, **Stuttgart. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Freiburg |
20% |
32% |
12% |
36% |

Stuttgart |
35% |
31% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Stuttgart** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Stuttgart** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and the home team **Freiburg ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.29 |

2 |
5.52 |
4+ |
3.15 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |

6+ |
20.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.45 |
3.95 |

2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.45 |
3.21 |

4+ goals |
1.72 |
4.34 |
5.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
4.40 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.45 |
3.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.84 |
3.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.52 |
4.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.34 |
5.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.03 |
3.44 |

Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
3.02 |
4.10 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.77 |
3.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.74 |
3.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.77 |
3.15 |

####
Go to Top

###
Hertha vs Werder Bremen at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **Werder Bremen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
2.16 |
2.43 |
-5.1 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.85 |
-3.9 |

Werder Bremen |
3.27 |
3.04 |
2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.89 |
5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.13 |
-10.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** as a guest**.

Werder Bremen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **Werder Bremen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
23% |
33% |
23% |
20% |

Werder Bremen |
30% |
32% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Werder Bremen** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.51 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.51 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |