Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Dortmund at 22 January 2021
Bielefeld vs Ein Frankfurt at 23 January 2021
Freiburg vs Stuttgart at 23 January 2021
Hertha vs Werder Bremen at 23 January 2021
Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg at 23 January 2021
Mainz vs RB Leipzig at 23 January 2021
Augsburg vs Union Berlin at 23 January 2021
Hoffenheim vs FC Koln at 24 January 2021
Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich at 24 January 2021
<a id=‘M’gladbach’>
M’gladbach vs Dortmund at 22 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
M’gladbach |
3.21 |
2.33 |
11.8 |
|
Draw |
3.70 |
3.92 |
-1.5 |
|
Dortmund |
2.14 |
3.16 |
-15.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.82 |
-11.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.21 |
5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at M’gladbach, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
M’gladbach in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Dortmund in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
M’gladbach |
23% |
33% |
17% |
27% |
|
Dortmund |
31% |
31% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.33 goals and Dortmund to score 1.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.47 goals and Dortmund to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.22 |
|
2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
3.30 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.30 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.43 |
3.38 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.42 |
4.34 |
2.80 |
|
4+ goals |
2.15 |
3.79 |
3.70 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
4.10 |
3.10 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.43 |
3.38 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.84 |
2.85 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.58 |
3.66 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.79 |
3.70 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.97 |
2.98 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.89 |
3.45 |
|
No Goal |
1.99 |
6.53 |
2.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.34 |
2.77 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.53 |
2.82 |
Go to Top
Bielefeld vs Ein Frankfurt at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bielefeld |
4.36 |
2.99 |
10.5 |
|
Draw |
3.81 |
3.83 |
-0.1 |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
1.80 |
2.48 |
-15.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.86 |
-5.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.16 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Under 2.5 (10.5 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bielefeld in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bielefeld |
28% |
35% |
20% |
17% |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
24% |
32% |
23% |
21% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 0.97 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the guest team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.27 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.18 |
|
1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.42 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
|
NoG |
2.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.85 |
3.62 |
2.69 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.01 |
4.15 |
2.34 |
|
4+ goals |
3.11 |
3.52 |
2.54 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
3.88 |
2.42 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
3.62 |
2.69 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.46 |
2.13 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.49 |
2.59 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |
3.52 |
2.54 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.96 |
2.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.81 |
2.83 |
|
No Goal |
2.58 |
6.80 |
2.15 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
5.28 |
2.25 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.64 |
6.80 |
2.31 |
Go to Top
Freiburg vs Stuttgart at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and Stuttgart for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Freiburg |
2.62 |
2.01 |
11.6 |
|
Draw |
3.68 |
4.12 |
-2.9 |
|
Stuttgart |
2.53 |
3.86 |
-13.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.75 |
-6.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.34 |
0.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Freiburg in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance as a guest.
Stuttgart, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Dortmund |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, Stuttgart.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Freiburg |
20% |
32% |
12% |
36% |
|
Stuttgart |
35% |
31% |
21% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.48 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.63 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.08 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.29 |
|
2 |
5.52 |
4+ |
3.15 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |
|
5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
|
6+ |
20.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.45 |
3.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.45 |
3.21 |
|
4+ goals |
1.72 |
4.34 |
5.28 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
4.40 |
3.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.45 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.84 |
3.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.52 |
4.10 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.34 |
5.28 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.03 |
3.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
3.02 |
4.10 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
6.77 |
3.64 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.74 |
3.33 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.77 |
3.15 |
Go to Top
Hertha vs Werder Bremen at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Werder Bremen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Hertha |
2.16 |
2.43 |
-5.1 |
|
Draw |
3.35 |
3.85 |
-3.9 |
|
Werder Bremen |
3.27 |
3.04 |
2.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.89 |
5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.13 |
-10.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Hertha in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance as a guest.
Werder Bremen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Werder Bremen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Hertha |
23% |
33% |
23% |
20% |
|
Werder Bremen |
30% |
32% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.35 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.4 goals and Werder Bremen to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
4.12 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.51 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |
|
5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
|
Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.51 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |