2021 01 22 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stoke vs Watford at 22 January 2021
QPR vs Derby at 23 January 2021
Preston vs Reading at 24 January 2021
Middlesbrough vs Blackburn at 24 January 2021


Stoke vs Watford at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

3.32

2.19

15.5

Draw

3.11

3.68

-5.0

Watford

2.33

3.70

-15.9

Over 2.5

2.49

2.23

4.7

Under 2.5

1.53

1.81

-10.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke, Over 2.5 (15.5 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Jan

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Bournemouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Derby

A

0

0

D

U

N


Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Norwich

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Rotherham

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

26%

33%

21%

20%

Watford

37%

38%

13%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 0.92 goals and Watford to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.36 goals and Watford to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.19

1

4.57

2-3

2.15

2

4.22

4+

4.52

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.19

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.33

3.16

2-3 goals

2.00

3.69

4.35

4+ goals

2.10

4.25

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Un 1.5

2.61

3.33

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.73

8.63

3.28

Un 2.5

2.79

2.50

4.14

Ov 3.5

2.10

4.25

3.45

Un 3.5

2.21

3.54

3.78

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.65

4.40

No Goal

1.95

5.62

3.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

6.63

3.22

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

5.62

3.19


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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QPR vs Derby at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

2.56

2.11

8.3

Draw

3.13

3.55

-3.8

Derby

2.91

4.12

-10.1

Over 2.5

2.19

2.28

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.70

1.78

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR (8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

Luton

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G


Derby in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

0

W

O

N

26 Dec

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Swansea

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Dec

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

22%

37%

19%

21%

Derby

36%

43%

11%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.2 goals and Derby to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.39 goals and Derby to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team QPR to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.23

1

4.37

2-3

2.11

2

3.97

4+

4.67

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.23

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.83

3.23

2-3 goals

2.08

3.01

5.34

4+ goals

1.89

4.98

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.02

3.43

4.69

Un 1.5

2.33

3.83

3.23

Ov 2.5

1.61

10.16

3.58

Un 2.5

2.78

2.35

4.64

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.98

3.69

Un 3.5

2.17

3.28

4.24

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.47

5.01

No Goal

1.81

6.21

3.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

7.86

3.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.21

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Preston vs Reading at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.61

2.70

-1.3

Draw

3.17

3.65

-4.1

Reading

2.81

2.82

-0.1

Over 2.5

2.25

2.19

1.2

Under 2.5

1.65

1.84

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Bristol City

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Luton

A

0

3

L

O

N


Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Coventry

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Jan

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Luton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Brentford

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Dec

Birmingham

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

28%

39%

18%

15%

Reading

31%

32%

24%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.15 goals and Reading to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.21 goals and Reading to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.39

1

4.78

2-3

2.07

2

4.02

4+

4.50

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.39

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.43

3.31

2-3 goals

2.93

3.87

2.49

4+ goals

2.58

3.47

3.08

Ov 1.5

2.81

3.74

2.65

Un 1.5

2.46

3.43

3.31

Ov 2.5

2.37

7.14

2.29

Un 2.5

3.06

2.58

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.58

3.47

3.08

Un 3.5

2.73

3.69

2.75

Goal-Goal

3.42

2.65

3.03

No Goal

2.23

5.83

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.57

5.86

2.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.83

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Middlesbrough vs Blackburn at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

2.45

2.29

2.9

Draw

3.19

3.75

-4.7

Blackburn

2.92

3.38

-4.7

Over 2.5

2.25

2.11

2.9

Under 2.5

1.65

1.90

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Nott’m Forest

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Wycombe

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Millwall

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Dec

Preston

A

0

3

L

O

N


Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Birmingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Huddersfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Sheffield Weds

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Rotherham

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Bristol City

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

25%

32%

24%

18%

Blackburn

34%

35%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.19 goals and Blackburn to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.36 goals and Blackburn to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.55

1

5.08

2-3

2.06

2

4.08

4+

4.27

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.55

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.32

3.24

2-3 goals

2.13

4.29