Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Weymouth vs Hartlepool at 23 January 2021
Woking vs Maidenhead at 23 January 2021
Wealdstone vs Aldershot at 23 January 2021
Sutton vs Eastleigh at 23 January 2021
Stockport vs Boreham Wood at 23 January 2021
Halifax vs Bromley at 23 January 2021
Dag and Red vs King’s Lynn at 23 January 2021
Chesterfield vs Wrexham at 23 January 2021
Barnet vs Altrincham at 23 January 2021
Notts County vs Torquay at 23 January 2021
Weymouth vs Hartlepool at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Weymouth and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Weymouth |
4.42 |
3.34 |
7.3 |
|
Draw |
3.69 |
3.65 |
0.3 |
|
Hartlepool |
1.73 |
2.34 |
-15.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.99 |
-3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.01 |
-1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Weymouth, Draw (7.3 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Weymouth in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance at home.
Weymouth, at home, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
Hartlepool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Weymouth and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Weymouth |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |
|
Hartlepool |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 0.87 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.16 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.13 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.42 |
4.17 |
2.88 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.73 |
3.48 |
2.25 |
|
4+ goals |
4.02 |
3.56 |
2.13 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.82 |
3.50 |
2.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
4.17 |
2.88 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.28 |
7.07 |
1.81 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.43 |
2.45 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |
3.56 |
2.13 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.17 |
3.67 |
2.42 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.47 |
2.67 |
2.49 |
|
No Goal |
2.50 |
7.29 |
2.16 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.34 |
6.07 |
1.87 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
7.29 |
2.36 |
Go to Top
Woking vs Maidenhead at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Woking |
2.07 |
2.23 |
-3.5 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.79 |
-3.3 |
|
Maidenhead |
3.31 |
3.48 |
-1.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.97 |
-1.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.03 |
-5.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Woking in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Barnet |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Woking |
22% |
34% |
25% |
20% |
|
Maidenhead |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.46 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Woking to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.43 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.02 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.89 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |
|
NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.23 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.15 |
4.09 |
3.43 |
|
4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.82 |
3.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.23 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.64 |
3.10 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.63 |
4.00 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.96 |
3.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.74 |
3.87 |
|
No Goal |
1.87 |
6.85 |
3.12 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.50 |
3.01 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.85 |
3.02 |
Go to Top
Wealdstone vs Aldershot at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Aldershot for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wealdstone |
2.60 |
2.49 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.73 |
-1.7 |
|
Aldershot |
2.48 |
3.02 |
-7.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.02 |
-9.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.98 |
3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Aldershot in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance as a guest.
Aldershot, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Woking |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Woking |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Aldershot.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wealdstone |
25% |
34% |
24% |
17% |
|
Aldershot |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.37 goals and Aldershot to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.33 goals and Aldershot to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.97 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.14 |
2.92 |
|
4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.27 |
3.36 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.79 |
3.06 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.43 |
2.69 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.64 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.27 |
3.36 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.90 |
2.93 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.72 |
3.51 |
|
No Goal |
2.17 |
6.36 |
2.62 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.35 |
2.73 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.36 |
2.64 |
Go to Top
Sutton vs Eastleigh at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sutton |
2.12 |
2.39 |
-5.3 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.77 |
-3.7 |
|
Eastleigh |
3.25 |
3.16 |
0.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.02 |
-4.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.98 |
-2.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Woking |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Wealdstone |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Eastleigh in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sutton |
25% |
32% |
24% |
19% |
|
Eastleigh |
30% |
35% |
22% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.47 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.36 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.82 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |