# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Weymouth vs Hartlepool at 23 January 2021**** Woking vs Maidenhead at 23 January 2021**** Wealdstone vs Aldershot at 23 January 2021**** Sutton vs Eastleigh at 23 January 2021**** Stockport vs Boreham Wood at 23 January 2021**** Halifax vs Bromley at 23 January 2021**** Dag and Red vs King’s Lynn at 23 January 2021**** Chesterfield vs Wrexham at 23 January 2021**** Barnet vs Altrincham at 23 January 2021**** Notts County vs Torquay at 23 January 2021**

###
Weymouth vs Hartlepool at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Weymouth** and **Hartlepool** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Weymouth |
4.42 |
3.34 |
7.3 |

Draw |
3.69 |
3.65 |
0.3 |

Hartlepool |
1.73 |
2.34 |
-15.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.99 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.01 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Weymouth, Draw (7.3 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Weymouth** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Weymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance** at home**.

Weymouth,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Hartlepool** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hartlepool** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance** as a guest**.

Hartlepool,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Weymouth** and the red line for guest team, **Hartlepool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Weymouth |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |

Hartlepool |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Weymouth** to score **0.87 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the guest team **Hartlepool ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Weymouth** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
4.17 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
3.73 |
3.48 |
2.25 |

4+ goals |
4.02 |
3.56 |
2.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.82 |
3.50 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
4.17 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.28 |
7.07 |
1.81 |

Un 2.5 |
3.43 |
2.45 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |
3.56 |
2.13 |

Un 3.5 |
3.17 |
3.67 |
2.42 |

Goal-Goal |
4.47 |
2.67 |
2.49 |

No Goal |
2.50 |
7.29 |
2.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.34 |
6.07 |
1.87 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
7.29 |
2.36 |

####
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###
Woking vs Maidenhead at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Woking** and **Maidenhead** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Woking |
2.07 |
2.23 |
-3.5 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.79 |
-3.3 |

Maidenhead |
3.31 |
3.48 |
-1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.97 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.03 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** at home**.

Woking,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Barnet |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** as a guest**.

Maidenhead,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Nov |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Woking** and the red line for guest team, **Maidenhead. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Woking |
22% |
34% |
25% |
20% |

Maidenhead |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Woking ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Woking** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.15 |
4.09 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.82 |
3.58 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.72 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.64 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.63 |
4.00 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.38 |
3.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.96 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.74 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.85 |
3.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.50 |
3.01 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.85 |
3.02 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wealdstone vs Aldershot at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wealdstone** and **Aldershot** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wealdstone |
2.60 |
2.49 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.73 |
-1.7 |

Aldershot |
2.48 |
3.02 |
-7.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.02 |
-9.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.98 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** at home**.

Wealdstone,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Aldershot** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aldershot** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance** as a guest**.

Aldershot,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Woking |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Dec |
Woking |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wealdstone** and the red line for guest team, **Aldershot. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wealdstone |
25% |
34% |
24% |
17% |

Aldershot |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Aldershot** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wealdstone** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Aldershot** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.14 |
2.92 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.27 |
3.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.79 |
3.06 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.43 |
2.69 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.64 |
3.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.27 |
3.36 |

Un 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.90 |
2.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.72 |
3.51 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
6.36 |
2.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.35 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.36 |
2.64 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sutton vs Eastleigh at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sutton** and **Eastleigh** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sutton |
2.12 |
2.39 |
-5.3 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.77 |
-3.7 |

Eastleigh |
3.25 |
3.16 |
0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.02 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.98 |
-2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Eastleigh (0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 7%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sutton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sutton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance** at home**.

Sutton,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Woking |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Nov |
Wealdstone |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Eastleigh** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eastleigh** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance** as a guest**.

Eastleigh,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Yeovil |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sutton** and the red line for guest team, **Eastleigh. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sutton |
25% |
32% |
24% |
19% |

Eastleigh |
30% |
35% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Sutton ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Eastleigh** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |