Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 January 2021
Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 January 2021
Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 January 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 January 2021
Den Haag vs FC Emmen at 23 January 2021
Twente vs VVV Venlo at 24 January 2021
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam at 24 January 2021
For Sittard vs Ajax at 24 January 2021
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar at 24 January 2021
Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Willem II |
2.52 |
2.35 |
2.9 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.82 |
-2.6 |
|
Zwolle |
2.65 |
3.21 |
-6.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.83 |
-0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.20 |
-3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Willem II (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Willem II in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Willem II |
23% |
31% |
24% |
23% |
|
Zwolle |
25% |
40% |
21% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.36 goals and Zwolle to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.46 goals and Zwolle to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.44 |
|
1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.37 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.43 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |
|
NoG |
2.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.27 |
3.88 |
3.31 |
|
4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.67 |
3.86 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.79 |
3.50 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.72 |
3.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.35 |
2.53 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.67 |
3.86 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.90 |
2.99 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.83 |
4.10 |
|
No Goal |
2.18 |
7.39 |
2.46 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.62 |
3.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
7.39 |
2.39 |
Go to Top
Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Vitesse |
1.75 |
1.74 |
0.3 |
|
Draw |
3.77 |
4.46 |
-4.1 |
|
Groningen |
4.35 |
4.95 |
-2.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.75 |
3.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.33 |
-8.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Vitesse, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Vitesse in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Groningen in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Vitesse |
19% |
18% |
34% |
29% |
|
Groningen |
38% |
33% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.72 goals and Groningen to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.74 goals and Groningen to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.93 |
|
1 |
7.58 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.41 |
|
3 |
3.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |
|
4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.93 |
|
5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
|
6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.90 |
2.86 |
3.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.41 |
8.23 |
5.91 |
|
4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.22 |
5.33 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
5.23 |
5.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
2.86 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
6.26 |
5.33 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
3.24 |
4.51 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.22 |
5.33 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.65 |
5.34 |
4.80 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.92 |
3.30 |
5.69 |
|
No Goal |
1.59 |
7.00 |
4.36 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.84 |
5.00 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.00 |
3.86 |
Go to Top
Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Heracles |
2.28 |
2.26 |
0.4 |
|
Draw |
3.46 |
3.92 |
-3.4 |
|
Heerenveen |
2.97 |
3.31 |
-3.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.78 |
-0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.29 |
-4.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Heerenveen in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance as a guest.
Heerenveen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Heerenveen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Heracles |
22% |
29% |
25% |
24% |
|
Heerenveen |
26% |
38% |
21% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.49 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.52 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.63 |
|
1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.22 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |
|
4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.63 |
|
5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
|
6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |
|
NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.79 |
2.57 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.30 |
3.38 |
|
4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.53 |
3.99 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.96 |
3.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.79 |
2.57 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.39 |
3.29 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.62 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.53 |
3.99 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
4.13 |
3.08 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.91 |
4.15 |
|
No Goal |
2.08 |
7.42 |
2.60 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.31 |
3.36 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
7.42 |
2.50 |
Go to Top
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
1.15 |
1.53 |
-21.6 |
|
Draw |
7.67 |
4.98 |
7.0 |
|
Waalwijk |
14.98 |
6.85 |
7.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
1.75 |
-17.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
3.18 |
2.33 |
11.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Waalwijk, Under 2.5 (7 %, 7.9 %, 11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance at home.
PSV Eindhoven, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 87.5% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PSV Eindhoven and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
16% |
13% |
39% |
32% |
|
Waalwijk |
47% |
29% |
16% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 3.13 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.57 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.87 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
5.46 |
|
1 |
9.17 |
2-3 |
1.84 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.66 |
|
3 |
3.38 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |
|
4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
5.46 |
|
5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
|
Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
|
NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |