# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 January 2021**** Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 January 2021**** Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 January 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 January 2021**** Den Haag vs FC Emmen at 23 January 2021**** Twente vs VVV Venlo at 24 January 2021**** Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam at 24 January 2021**** For Sittard vs Ajax at 24 January 2021**** Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar at 24 January 2021**

###
Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Willem II** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Willem II |
2.52 |
2.35 |
2.9 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.82 |
-2.6 |

Zwolle |
2.65 |
3.21 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.83 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.20 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Willem II (2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** at home**.

Willem II,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Willem II** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Willem II |
23% |
31% |
24% |
23% |

Zwolle |
25% |
40% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.44 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.37 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.43 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.37 |

NoG |
2.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.27 |
3.88 |
3.31 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.67 |
3.86 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.79 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.95 |
2.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.72 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
3.35 |
2.53 |
3.27 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.67 |
3.86 |

Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.90 |
2.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.83 |
4.10 |

No Goal |
2.18 |
7.39 |
2.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.62 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
7.39 |
2.39 |

####
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###
Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vitesse** and **Groningen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vitesse |
1.75 |
1.74 |
0.3 |

Draw |
3.77 |
4.46 |
-4.1 |

Groningen |
4.35 |
4.95 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.75 |
3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.33 |
-8.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vitesse, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** at home**.

Vitesse,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
For Sittard |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** as a guest**.

Groningen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vitesse** and the red line for guest team, **Groningen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vitesse |
19% |
18% |
34% |
29% |

Groningen |
38% |
33% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.93 |

1 |
7.58 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.41 |

3 |
3.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.68 |
Un 1.5 |
4.93 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.34 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
2.86 |
3.27 |

2-3 goals |
1.41 |
8.23 |
5.91 |

4+ goals |
1.99 |
3.22 |
5.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
5.23 |
5.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
2.86 |
3.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
6.26 |
5.33 |

Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
3.24 |
4.51 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.99 |
3.22 |
5.33 |

Un 3.5 |
1.65 |
5.34 |
4.80 |

Goal-Goal |
1.92 |
3.30 |
5.69 |

No Goal |
1.59 |
7.00 |
4.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.84 |
5.00 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.00 |
3.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heracles** and **Heerenveen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heracles |
2.28 |
2.26 |
0.4 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.92 |
-3.4 |

Heerenveen |
2.97 |
3.31 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.78 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.29 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heracles (0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** at home**.

Heracles,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** as a guest**.

Heerenveen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heracles** and the red line for guest team, **Heerenveen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heracles |
22% |
29% |
25% |
24% |

Heerenveen |
26% |
38% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.63 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
3.22 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.63 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |

Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |

NoG |
2.36 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.79 |
2.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.30 |
3.38 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.53 |
3.99 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.96 |
3.60 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.79 |
2.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.39 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.62 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.53 |
3.99 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
4.13 |
3.08 |

Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.91 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
7.42 |
2.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.31 |
3.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
7.42 |
2.50 |

####
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###
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PSV Eindhoven** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.15 |
1.53 |
-21.6 |

Draw |
7.67 |
4.98 |
7.0 |

Waalwijk |
14.98 |
6.85 |
7.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
1.75 |
-17.5 |

Under 2.5 |
3.18 |
2.33 |
11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Waalwijk, Under 2.5 (7 %, 7.9 %, 11.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** at home**.

PSV Eindhoven,** at home**, had 7 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 87.5% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PSV Eindhoven** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PSV Eindhoven |
16% |
13% |
39% |
32% |

Waalwijk |
47% |
29% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **3.13 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.57** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **2.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.87 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
5.46 |

1 |
9.17 |
2-3 |
1.84 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
3.38 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
5.46 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |

Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |