2021 01 22 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 January 2021
Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 January 2021
Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 January 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 January 2021
Den Haag vs FC Emmen at 23 January 2021
Twente vs VVV Venlo at 24 January 2021
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam at 24 January 2021
For Sittard vs Ajax at 24 January 2021
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar at 24 January 2021


Willem II vs Zwolle at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

2.52

2.35

2.9

Draw

3.48

3.82

-2.6

Zwolle

2.65

3.21

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.81

1.83

-0.6

Under 2.5

2.05

2.20

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Willem II (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Dec

Ajax

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

3

5

L

O

G

13 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

For Sittard

A

2

3

L

O

G

29 Nov

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N


Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

For Sittard

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Ajax

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Vitesse

H

2

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

VVV Venlo

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

23%

31%

24%

23%

Zwolle

25%

40%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.36 goals and Zwolle to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.46 goals and Zwolle to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.44

1

5.95

2-3

2.10

2

4.35

4+

3.37

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.43

Un 1.5

4.44

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.37

NoG

2.38

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.95

2.47

2-3 goals

2.27

3.88

3.31

4+ goals

2.14

3.67

3.86

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.79

3.50

Un 1.5

2.92

3.95

2.47

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.72

3.14

Un 2.5

3.35

2.53

3.27

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.67

3.86

Un 3.5

2.45

3.90

2.99

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.83

4.10

No Goal

2.18

7.39

2.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.62

3.23

NG+Un 2.5

2.44

7.39

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vitesse vs Groningen at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vitesse

1.75

1.74

0.3

Draw

3.77

4.46

-4.1

Groningen

4.35

4.95

-2.8

Over 2.5

1.85

1.75

3.1

Under 2.5

1.96

2.33

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Vitesse, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vitesse in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

FC Emmen

A

4

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Utrecht

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Heracles

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Feyenoord

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Dec

Zwolle

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

For Sittard

H

2

0

W

U

N


Groningen in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Twente

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Jan

Willem II

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Utrecht

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Dec

Heracles

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Willem II

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vitesse

19%

18%

34%

29%

Groningen

38%

33%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.72 goals and Groningen to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.74 goals and Groningen to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.93

1

7.58

2-3

1.99

2

4.44

4+

3.41

3

3.61

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.93

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.75

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.34

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.41

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

2.86

3.27

2-3 goals

1.41

8.23

5.91

4+ goals

1.99

3.22

5.33

Ov 1.5

1.58

5.23

5.68

Un 1.5

2.90

2.86

3.27

Ov 2.5

1.53

6.26

5.33

Un 2.5

2.13

3.24

4.51

Ov 3.5

1.99

3.22

5.33

Un 3.5

1.65

5.34

4.80

Goal-Goal

1.92

3.30

5.69

No Goal

1.59

7.00

4.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

4.84

5.00

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

7.00

3.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Heracles vs Heerenveen at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

2.28

2.26

0.4

Draw

3.46

3.92

-3.4

Heerenveen

2.97

3.31

-3.5

Over 2.5

1.76

1.78

-0.6

Under 2.5

2.08

2.29

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Jan

FC Emmen

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Vitesse

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Groningen

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Feyenoord

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

2

L

O

G


Heerenveen in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance as a guest.
Heerenveen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Feyenoord

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Dec

Heracles

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Den Haag

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Heerenveen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

22%

29%

25%

24%

Heerenveen

26%

38%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.49 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.52 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.63

1

6.29

2-3

2.11

2

4.50

4+

3.22

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.32

Un 1.5

4.63

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.78

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.28

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.22

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.79

2.57

2-3 goals

2.12

4.30

3.38

4+ goals

2.14

3.53

3.99

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.96

3.60

Un 1.5

2.88

3.79

2.57

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.39

3.29

Un 2.5

3.13

2.62

3.34

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.53

3.99

Un 3.5

2.31

4.13

3.08

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.91

4.15

No Goal

2.08

7.42

2.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.31

3.36

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

7.42

2.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PSV Eindhoven vs Waalwijk at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PSV Eindhoven

1.15

1.53

-21.6

Draw

7.67

4.98

7.0

Waalwijk

14.98

6.85

7.9

Over 2.5

1.34

1.75

-17.5

Under 2.5

3.18

2.33

11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Waalwijk, Under 2.5 (7 %, 7.9 %, 11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance at home.
PSV Eindhoven, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 87.5% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

5

3

W

O

G

13 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

Ajax

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Waalwijk

A

4

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N


Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Den Haag

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

For Sittard

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

4

L

O

G

12 Dec

Groningen

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Nov

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PSV Eindhoven and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PSV Eindhoven

16%

13%

39%

32%

Waalwijk

47%

29%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 3.13 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.57 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.87 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

5.46

1

9.17

2-3

1.84

2

4.05

4+

3.66

3

3.38

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

6.02

Un 1.5

5.46

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.76

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.33

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-