2021 01 22 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Levante vs Valladolid at 22 January 2021
Sevilla vs Cadiz at 23 January 2021
Sociedad vs Betis at 23 January 2021
Alaves vs Real Madrid at 23 January 2021
Huesca vs Villarreal at 23 January 2021
Celta vs Eibar at 24 January 2021
Osasuna vs Granada at 24 January 2021
Ath Madrid vs Valencia at 24 January 2021
Elche vs Barcelona at 24 January 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Getafe at 25 January 2021


Levante vs Valladolid at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

2.14

2.09

1.1

Draw

3.19

3.92

-5.8

Valladolid

3.84

3.76

0.6

Over 2.5

2.07

2.00

1.7

Under 2.5

1.79

2.00

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Valladolid, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 0.6 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Cadiz

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Betis

H

4

3

W

O

G

22 Dec

Huesca

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N


Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Elche

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Valencia

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Osasuna

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

22%

29%

27%

21%

Valladolid

36%

33%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.44 goals and Valladolid to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.46 goals and Valladolid to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Levante to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.83

1

5.56

2-3

2.05

2

4.17

4+

4.00

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.83

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.22

3.53

2-3 goals

1.85

5.08

3.81

4+ goals

2.29

3.25

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.98

4.27

3.84

Un 1.5

2.46

3.22

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.47

3.39

Un 2.5

2.44

2.83

4.21

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.25

3.91

Un 3.5

2.02

4.23

3.71

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.86

4.05

No Goal

1.80

6.23

3.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.17

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

6.23

3.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sevilla vs Cadiz at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

1.48

1.95

-16.3

Draw

4.21

3.91

1.8

Cadiz

8.07

4.33

10.7

Over 2.5

2.24

1.99

5.6

Under 2.5

1.68

2.01

-9.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Cadiz, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 10.7 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Alaves

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Sociedad

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N


Cadiz in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance as a guest.
Cadiz, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Levante

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Alaves

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Valladolid

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Betis

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Getafe

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Dec

Celta

A

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Barcelona

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

19%

33%

22%

26%

Cadiz

36%

38%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.74 goals and Cadiz to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.54 goals and Cadiz to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.85

1

5.24

2-3

2.05

2

4.22

4+

3.95

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.85

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.77

3.51

2-3 goals

1.92

3.87

4.52

4+ goals

1.78

4.15

5.06

Ov 1.5

1.87

3.96

4.69

Un 1.5

2.22

3.77

3.51

Ov 2.5

1.58

8.26

4.03

Un 2.5

2.55

2.55

4.64

Ov 3.5

1.78

4.15

5.06

Un 3.5

2.02

3.84

4.11

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.79

4.87

No Goal

1.68

6.96

3.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.48

3.69

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.96

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sociedad vs Betis at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Betis for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

1.84

1.95

-3.1

Draw

3.85

4.00

-1.0

Betis

4.17

4.22

-0.3

Over 2.5

1.77

1.96

-5.5

Under 2.5

2.09

2.04

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Sevilla

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Osasuna

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Levante

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Alaves

A

0

0

D

U

N


Betis in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance as a guest.
Betis, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Celta

H

2

1

W

O

G

11 Jan

Huesca

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Levante

A

3

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Cadiz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Granada

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Betis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

20%

29%

27%

24%

Betis

36%

37%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.75 goals and Betis to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.54 goals and Betis to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.02

1

5.65

2-3

2.02

2

4.17

4+

3.92

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.02

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.46

3.32

2-3 goals

1.77

4.68

4.55

4+ goals

1.96

3.54

4.81

Ov 1.5

1.83

4.22

4.64

Un 1.5

2.44

3.46

3.32

Ov 2.5

1.63

7.10

4.09

Un 2.5

2.46

2.75

4.37

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.54

4.81

Un 3.5

1.95

4.19

4.05

Goal-Goal

2.23

2.88

4.89

No Goal

1.72

6.76

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.65

3.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.76

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Alaves vs Real Madrid at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alaves

6.96

2.42

27.0

Draw

4.70

3.66

6.0

Real Madrid

1.45

3.19

-37.6

Over 2.5

1.69

1.93

-7.4

Under 2.5

2.21

2.07

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Draw, Under 2.5 (27 %, 6 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alaves in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Sevilla

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Jan

Cadiz

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Dec

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Celta

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Huesca

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Sociedad

H

0

0

D

U

N


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Ath Madrid

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alaves

23%

33%

24%

20%

Real Madrid

23%

44%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 0.68 goals and Real Madrid to score 2.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.41 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.52

0-1

4.27

1

5.56

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

3.69

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.27

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.69

Ov 3.5

3.69

NoG

2.44

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

4.33

2.27

2-3 goals

2.40

3.37

3.49