# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Levante vs Valladolid at 22 January 2021**** Sevilla vs Cadiz at 23 January 2021**** Sociedad vs Betis at 23 January 2021**** Alaves vs Real Madrid at 23 January 2021**** Huesca vs Villarreal at 23 January 2021**** Celta vs Eibar at 24 January 2021**** Osasuna vs Granada at 24 January 2021**** Ath Madrid vs Valencia at 24 January 2021**** Elche vs Barcelona at 24 January 2021**** Ath Bilbao vs Getafe at 25 January 2021**

###
Levante vs Valladolid at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Levante** and **Valladolid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Levante |
2.14 |
2.09 |
1.1 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.92 |
-5.8 |

Valladolid |
3.84 |
3.76 |
0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.00 |
1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.00 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Levante, Valladolid, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 0.6 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** at home**.

Levante,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Betis |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** as a guest**.

Valladolid,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Levante** and the red line for guest team, **Valladolid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Levante |
22% |
29% |
27% |
21% |

Valladolid |
36% |
33% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Valladolid** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Levante ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Valladolid** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Levante ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.22 |
3.53 |

2-3 goals |
1.85 |
5.08 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.25 |
3.91 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.27 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.22 |
3.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.47 |
3.39 |

Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.83 |
4.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.25 |
3.91 |

Un 3.5 |
2.02 |
4.23 |
3.71 |

Goal-Goal |
2.48 |
2.86 |
4.05 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.23 |
3.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.17 |
3.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.23 |
3.40 |

####
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###
Sevilla vs Cadiz at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sevilla** and **Cadiz** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sevilla |
1.48 |
1.95 |
-16.3 |

Draw |
4.21 |
3.91 |
1.8 |

Cadiz |
8.07 |
4.33 |
10.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
1.99 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.01 |
-9.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Cadiz, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 10.7 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** at home**.

Sevilla,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cadiz** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cadiz** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance** as a guest**.

Cadiz,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Valladolid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Betis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Celta |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sevilla** and the red line for guest team, **Cadiz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sevilla |
19% |
33% |
22% |
26% |

Cadiz |
36% |
38% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.74 ** goals and **Cadiz** to score **0.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **1.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Cadiz** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Sevilla ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.77 |
3.51 |

2-3 goals |
1.92 |
3.87 |
4.52 |

4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.15 |
5.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.87 |
3.96 |
4.69 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.77 |
3.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
8.26 |
4.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.55 |
4.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.15 |
5.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.84 |
4.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.79 |
4.87 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.96 |
3.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.48 |
3.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.96 |
3.47 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sociedad vs Betis at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sociedad** and **Betis** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sociedad |
1.84 |
1.95 |
-3.1 |

Draw |
3.85 |
4.00 |
-1.0 |

Betis |
4.17 |
4.22 |
-0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.96 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.04 |
1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** at home**.

Sociedad,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Betis** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Betis** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance** as a guest**.

Betis,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Levante |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sociedad** and the red line for guest team, **Betis. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sociedad |
20% |
29% |
27% |
24% |

Betis |
36% |
37% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Betis** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sociedad** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Betis** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Sociedad ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.46 |
3.32 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.68 |
4.55 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.54 |
4.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
4.22 |
4.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.46 |
3.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
7.10 |
4.09 |

Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.75 |
4.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.54 |
4.81 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.19 |
4.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.23 |
2.88 |
4.89 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
6.76 |
3.69 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.65 |
3.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.76 |
3.42 |

####
Go to Top

###
Alaves vs Real Madrid at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Alaves** and **Real Madrid** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Alaves |
6.96 |
2.42 |
27.0 |

Draw |
4.70 |
3.66 |
6.0 |

Real Madrid |
1.45 |
3.19 |
-37.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.93 |
-7.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.07 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Alaves, Draw, Under 2.5 (27 %, 6 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Alaves** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alaves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance** at home**.

Alaves,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Celta |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** as a guest**.

Real Madrid,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Elche |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Alaves** and the red line for guest team, **Real Madrid. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Alaves |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Real Madrid |
23% |
44% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Alaves** to score **0.68 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **2.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the guest team **Real Madrid ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Alaves** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Real Madrid** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.52 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.69 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.69 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |

NoG |
2.44 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.04 |
4.33 |
2.27 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
3.37 |
3.49 |