# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon at 23 January 2021**** Gillingham vs Rochdale at 23 January 2021**** Ipswich vs Peterboro at 23 January 2021**** Lincoln vs Northampton at 23 January 2021**** Oxford vs Bristol Rvs at 23 January 2021**** Portsmouth vs Hull at 23 January 2021**** Sunderland vs Shrewsbury at 23 January 2021**** Wigan vs Fleetwood Town at 23 January 2021**** Charlton vs Swindon at 23 January 2021**

###
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crewe** and **AFC Wimbledon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crewe |
1.77 |
2.15 |
-10.0 |

Draw |
3.65 |
3.76 |
-0.8 |

AFC Wimbledon |
4.55 |
3.72 |
4.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.11 |
-3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.90 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **AFC Wimbledon (4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** at home**.

Crewe,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Burton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** as a guest**.

AFC Wimbledon,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crewe** and the red line for guest team, **AFC Wimbledon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crewe |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

AFC Wimbledon |
35% |
36% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.63 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Crewe ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crewe** to score **1.41 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Crewe ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.26 |
3.61 |
3.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.09 |
3.78 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.33 |
3.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.82 |
3.78 |

Un 1.5 |
2.26 |
3.61 |
3.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.88 |
3.15 |

Un 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.66 |
4.45 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.33 |
3.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.91 |
3.70 |

Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.68 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.51 |
3.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.65 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.51 |
3.42 |

####
Go to Top

###
Gillingham vs Rochdale at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gillingham** and **Rochdale** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gillingham |
2.10 |
2.71 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.69 |
-2.1 |

Rochdale |
3.44 |
2.77 |
7.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.04 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.96 |
-3.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** at home**.

Gillingham,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** as a guest**.

Rochdale,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gillingham** and the red line for guest team, **Rochdale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gillingham |
28% |
32% |
23% |
16% |

Rochdale |
25% |
37% |
26% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Gillingham ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Rochdale** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.15 |
3.63 |
2.46 |

2-3 goals |
2.67 |
4.10 |
2.62 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.11 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.71 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
3.15 |
3.63 |
2.46 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.20 |
2.66 |

Un 2.5 |
3.62 |
2.66 |
2.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.11 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.81 |
3.93 |
2.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.69 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.56 |
6.52 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.27 |
2.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
6.52 |
2.20 |

####
Go to Top

###
Ipswich vs Peterboro at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ipswich** and **Peterboro** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ipswich |
2.90 |
2.29 |
9.2 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.79 |
-3.6 |

Peterboro |
2.39 |
3.34 |
-11.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.01 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.99 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ipswich (9.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ipswich** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ipswich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance** at home**.

Ipswich,** at home**, had 7 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ipswich scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Burton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Burton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Hull |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** as a guest**.

Peterboro,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ipswich** and the red line for guest team, **Peterboro. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ipswich |
24% |
31% |
27% |
18% |

Peterboro |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ipswich** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.42 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.21 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.92 |
3.51 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.44 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.36 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.70 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.21 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
4.03 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.76 |
3.95 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
6.36 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.27 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.36 |
2.84 |

####
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###
Lincoln vs Northampton at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lincoln** and **Northampton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lincoln |
1.58 |
1.91 |
-10.9 |

Draw |
4.02 |
3.86 |
1.0 |

Northampton |
5.51 |
4.61 |
3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.18 |
-9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
1.85 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Northampton, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.5 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** at home**.

Lincoln,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Northampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lincoln** and the red line for guest team, **Northampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lincoln |
16% |
38% |
27% |
19% |

Northampton |
40% |
35% |
16% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.89 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.76 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.83 |
4.15 |
4.72 |