2021 01 22 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon at 23 January 2021
Gillingham vs Rochdale at 23 January 2021
Ipswich vs Peterboro at 23 January 2021
Lincoln vs Northampton at 23 January 2021
Oxford vs Bristol Rvs at 23 January 2021
Portsmouth vs Hull at 23 January 2021
Sunderland vs Shrewsbury at 23 January 2021
Wigan vs Fleetwood Town at 23 January 2021
Charlton vs Swindon at 23 January 2021


Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crewe

1.77

2.15

-10.0

Draw

3.65

3.76

-0.8

AFC Wimbledon

4.55

3.72

4.9

Over 2.5

1.98

2.11

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.83

1.90

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at AFC Wimbledon (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crewe in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance at home.
Crewe, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Plymouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Plymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Burton

A

1

1

D

U

G


AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Portsmouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oxford

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Charlton

A

2

5

L

O

G

05 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crewe and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crewe

21%

34%

26%

18%

AFC Wimbledon

35%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.63 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Crewe to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.41 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Crewe to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.69

1

5.10

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

4.35

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.69

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.61

3.57

2-3 goals

2.04

4.09

3.78

4+ goals

2.30

3.33

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.11

3.82

3.78

Un 1.5

2.26

3.61

3.57

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.88

3.15

Un 2.5

2.50

2.66

4.45

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.33

3.77

Un 3.5

2.11

3.91

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.67

2.68

3.97

No Goal

1.79

6.51

3.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.65

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.51

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Gillingham vs Rochdale at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gillingham

2.10

2.71

-10.7

Draw

3.42

3.69

-2.1

Rochdale

3.44

2.77

7.0

Over 2.5

1.98

2.04

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.83

1.96

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Burton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Northampton

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Accrington

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N


Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Wigan

H

3

3

D

O

G

12 Jan

Charlton

A

4

4

D

O

G

09 Jan

Crewe

H

3

3

D

O

G

19 Dec

Gillingham

H

1

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Wigan

A

5

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Peterboro

A

1

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gillingham

28%

32%

23%

16%

Rochdale

25%

37%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.45 goals and Rochdale to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Gillingham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.27 goals and Rochdale to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.88

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

3.97

4+

4.07

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.15

3.63

2.46

2-3 goals

2.67

4.10

2.62

4+ goals

2.46

3.11

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.71

2.90

Un 1.5

3.15

3.63

2.46

Ov 2.5

2.16

6.20

2.66

Un 2.5

3.62

2.66

2.88

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.11

3.67

Un 3.5

2.81

3.93

2.56

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.69

3.58

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

5.27

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.76

6.52

2.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Ipswich vs Peterboro at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ipswich

2.90

2.29

9.2

Draw

3.34

3.79

-3.6

Peterboro

2.39

3.34

-11.9

Over 2.5

1.95

2.01

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.86

1.99

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ipswich (9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ipswich in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Swindon

H

2

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Burton

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Portsmouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Plymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Oxford

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Nov

Hull

H

0

3

L

O

N


Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Charlton

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Rochdale

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Nov

Plymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ipswich

24%

31%

27%

18%

Peterboro

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.16 goals and Peterboro to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.4 goals and Peterboro to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.88

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

4.00

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.44

2.97

2-3 goals

2.08

4.42

3.41

4+ goals

2.38

3.21

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.92

3.51

Un 1.5

2.69

3.44

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.36

3.10

Un 2.5

2.81

2.70

3.64

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.21

3.73

Un 3.5

2.26

4.03

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.76

3.95

No Goal

2.02

6.36

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.27

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.36

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lincoln vs Northampton at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

1.58

1.91

-10.9

Draw

4.02

3.86

1.0

Northampton

5.51

4.61

3.5

Over 2.5

1.81

2.18

-9.4

Under 2.5

2.02

1.85

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Northampton, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.5 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N

05 Dec

Rochdale

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Wigan

H

2

1

W

O

G


Northampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Gillingham

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Oxford

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

16%

38%

27%

19%

Northampton

40%

35%

16%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.89 goals and Northampton to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.48 goals and Northampton to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.65

1

4.81

2-3

1.95

2

3.72

4+

4.69

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.65

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.83

4.15

4.72