# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Salford vs Harrogate at 22 January 2021**** Port Vale vs Walsall at 23 January 2021**** Tranmere vs Bolton at 23 January 2021**** Southend vs Mansfield at 23 January 2021**** Cambridge vs Bradford at 23 January 2021**** Morecambe vs Colchester at 23 January 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Grimsby at 23 January 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Forest Green at 23 January 2021**** Exeter vs Stevenage at 23 January 2021**** Oldham vs Newport County at 23 January 2021**

###
Salford vs Harrogate at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.04 |
2.40 |
-7.4 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.70 |
-3.0 |

Harrogate |
3.70 |
3.19 |
4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.15 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.87 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Harrogate, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
27% |
30% |
28% |
14% |

Harrogate |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.97 |
3.24 |
2.82 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.57 |
3.34 |

4+ goals |
2.70 |
2.95 |
3.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.90 |
3.37 |

Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
3.24 |
2.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.13 |
2.97 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.74 |
3.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.70 |
2.95 |
3.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.98 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.70 |
3.93 |

No Goal |
2.18 |
5.84 |
2.70 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.13 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.84 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Port Vale vs Walsall at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Port Vale** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Port Vale |
2.73 |
2.31 |
6.7 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.62 |
-4.1 |

Walsall |
2.65 |
3.44 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.19 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.84 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Port Vale (6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** at home**.

Port Vale,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Port Vale** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Port Vale |
24% |
36% |
23% |
17% |

Walsall |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.41 |
3.64 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.68 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.42 |
3.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.60 |
3.54 |

Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.64 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.16 |
2.97 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.54 |
3.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.42 |
3.84 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.67 |
3.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.58 |
3.92 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
6.23 |
3.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.92 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.23 |
2.99 |

####
Go to Top

###
Tranmere vs Bolton at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.58 |
2.46 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.64 |
-2.9 |

Bolton |
2.70 |
3.14 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.17 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.86 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tranmere (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
26% |
35% |
24% |
15% |

Bolton |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.51 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.87 |
3.13 |

4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.29 |
3.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.67 |
3.20 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.51 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.78 |
2.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.59 |
3.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.29 |
3.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.73 |
3.10 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.62 |
3.62 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
6.04 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
5.65 |
2.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.04 |
2.80 |

####
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###
Southend vs Mansfield at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Mansfield** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
3.82 |
2.87 |
8.7 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.62 |
-1.1 |

Mansfield |
1.95 |
2.66 |
-13.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.27 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.79 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend (8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Mansfield,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Mansfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
33% |
31% |
24% |
12% |

Mansfield |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **1.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the guest team **Mansfield ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Mansfield** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.40 |
3.12 |
2.59 |

2-3 goals |