Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Salford vs Harrogate at 22 January 2021
Port Vale vs Walsall at 23 January 2021
Tranmere vs Bolton at 23 January 2021
Southend vs Mansfield at 23 January 2021
Cambridge vs Bradford at 23 January 2021
Morecambe vs Colchester at 23 January 2021
Scunthorpe vs Grimsby at 23 January 2021
Leyton Orient vs Forest Green at 23 January 2021
Exeter vs Stevenage at 23 January 2021
Oldham vs Newport County at 23 January 2021
Salford vs Harrogate at 22 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salford |
2.04 |
2.40 |
-7.4 |
|
Draw |
3.33 |
3.70 |
-3.0 |
|
Harrogate |
3.70 |
3.19 |
4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.15 |
1.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.87 |
-6.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate, Over 2.5 (4.3 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salford in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salford |
27% |
30% |
28% |
14% |
|
Harrogate |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.37 goals and Harrogate to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.3 goals and Harrogate to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.58 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.97 |
3.24 |
2.82 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.57 |
3.34 |
|
4+ goals |
2.70 |
2.95 |
3.45 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.90 |
3.37 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
3.24 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.13 |
2.97 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.74 |
3.43 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.70 |
2.95 |
3.45 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.98 |
3.13 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.70 |
3.93 |
|
No Goal |
2.18 |
5.84 |
2.70 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.13 |
3.07 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.84 |
2.73 |
Go to Top
Port Vale vs Walsall at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Port Vale |
2.73 |
2.31 |
6.7 |
|
Draw |
3.15 |
3.62 |
-4.1 |
|
Walsall |
2.65 |
3.44 |
-8.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.19 |
-3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.84 |
-1.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Port Vale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Walsall in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Port Vale |
24% |
36% |
23% |
17% |
|
Walsall |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.2 goals and Walsall to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.33 goals and Walsall to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.41 |
3.64 |
3.23 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.68 |
3.43 |
|
4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.42 |
3.84 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.60 |
3.54 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.64 |
3.23 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.16 |
2.97 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.54 |
3.99 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.42 |
3.84 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.67 |
3.35 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.58 |
3.92 |
|
No Goal |
1.95 |
6.23 |
3.06 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.92 |
2.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.23 |
2.99 |
Go to Top
Tranmere vs Bolton at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tranmere |
2.58 |
2.46 |
1.9 |
|
Draw |
3.29 |
3.64 |
-2.9 |
|
Bolton |
2.70 |
3.14 |
-5.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.17 |
-0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.86 |
-5.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Tranmere (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tranmere in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Bolton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tranmere |
26% |
35% |
24% |
15% |
|
Bolton |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.18 goals and Bolton to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.29 goals and Bolton to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.51 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.87 |
3.13 |
|
4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.29 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.67 |
3.20 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.51 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.78 |
2.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.59 |
3.67 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.29 |
3.34 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.73 |
3.10 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.62 |
3.62 |
|
No Goal |
2.11 |
6.04 |
2.78 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
5.65 |
2.72 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.04 |
2.80 |
Go to Top
Southend vs Mansfield at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Southend |
3.82 |
2.87 |
8.7 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.62 |
-1.1 |
|
Mansfield |
1.95 |
2.66 |
-13.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.27 |
-5.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.79 |
0.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend (8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Southend in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Mansfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance as a guest.
Mansfield, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Southend |
33% |
31% |
24% |
12% |
|
Mansfield |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.92 goals and Mansfield to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Mansfield to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.14 goals and Mansfield to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.27 |
|
1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.83 |
|
3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |
|
4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
|
Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.40 |
3.12 |
2.59 |
|
2-3 goals |