# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Paris SG vs Montpellier at 22 January 2021**** Monaco vs Marseille at 23 January 2021**** Lens vs Nice at 23 January 2021**** St Etienne vs Lyon at 24 January 2021**** Rennes vs Lille at 24 January 2021**** Reims vs Brest at 24 January 2021**** Bordeaux vs Angers at 24 January 2021**** Nimes vs Lorient at 24 January 2021**** Metz vs Nantes at 24 January 2021**** Dijon vs Strasbourg at 24 January 2021**

###
Paris SG vs Montpellier at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Paris SG** and **Montpellier** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Paris SG |
1.19 |
1.82 |
-29.1 |

Draw |
7.86 |
4.08 |
11.8 |

Montpellier |
14.11 |
4.83 |
13.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
2.07 |
-26.3 |

Under 2.5 |
3.16 |
1.93 |
20.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Montpellier, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 13.6 %, 20.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** at home**.

Paris SG,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Angers |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Brest |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Strasbourg |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** as a guest**.

Montpellier,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Lille |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Paris SG** and the red line for guest team, **Montpellier. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Paris SG |
21% |
25% |
34% |
20% |

Montpellier |
40% |
35% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **3.11 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **0.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.57** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **2.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Paris SG** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Montpellier** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.07 |
3.49 |

2-3 goals |
1.54 |
6.00 |
5.49 |

4+ goals |
2.03 |
2.99 |
5.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.65 |
4.61 |
5.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.07 |
3.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
6.51 |
5.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
3.04 |
4.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
2.99 |
5.82 |

Un 3.5 |
1.77 |
4.57 |
4.62 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
2.93 |
5.76 |

No Goal |
1.65 |
6.34 |
4.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
5.20 |
4.70 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.34 |
3.90 |

####
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###
Monaco vs Marseille at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Monaco** and **Marseille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Monaco |
1.82 |
2.21 |
-9.7 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.75 |
1.0 |

Marseille |
4.14 |
3.57 |
3.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.34 |
-13.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.75 |
9.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Marseille, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.9 %, 9.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Monaco** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monaco** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance** at home**.

Monaco,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Jan |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Lens |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** as a guest**.

Marseille,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Angers |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Monaco** and the red line for guest team, **Marseille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Monaco |
27% |
28% |
33% |
12% |

Marseille |
37% |
36% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Monaco** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **Monaco ** to win by **0.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Monaco** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
8.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.03 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.85 |
4.46 |

4+ goals |
3.24 |
3.03 |
2.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.16 |
3.82 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.03 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.78 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.80 |
4.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.24 |
3.03 |
2.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.95 |
3.84 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.74 |
4.09 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
5.38 |
3.23 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.62 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.38 |
3.41 |

####
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###
Lens vs Nice at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lens** and **Nice** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lens |
2.14 |
2.24 |
-2.1 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.70 |
-3.9 |

Nice |
3.69 |
3.55 |
1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.37 |
-6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.73 |
1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nice, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** at home**.

Lens,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Monaco |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Montpellier |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** as a guest**.

Nice,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Brest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Lyon |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Nimes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Reims |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lens** and the red line for guest team, **Nice. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lens |
27% |
30% |
32% |
12% |

Nice |
37% |
36% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Nice** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Lens ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Nice** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.22 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.22 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.08 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.60 |
4.32 |

4+ goals |
3.19 |
3.08 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
4.05 |
3.74 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.08 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.90 |
2.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.76 |
4.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.19 |
3.08 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.87 |
3.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.69 |
4.04 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
5.38 |
3.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.70 |
3.08 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.38 |
3.38 |

####
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###
St Etienne vs Lyon at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **St Etienne** and **Lyon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **24 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

St Etienne |
7.91 |
2.65 |
25.1 |

Draw |
4.66 |
3.56 |
6.6 |

Lyon |
1.41 |
2.93 |
-36.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.49 |
-19.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.22 |
1.67 |
14.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **St Etienne, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.1 %, 6.6 %, 14.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**St Etienne** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **St Etienne** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance** at home**.

St Etienne,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Reims |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Bordeaux |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** as a guest**.

Lyon,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Lens |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Nice |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Metz |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **St Etienne** and the red line for guest team, **Lyon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

St Etienne |
31% |
35% |
25% |
9% |

Lyon |
36% |
36% |
12% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **0.63 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **2.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and the guest team **Lyon ** to win by **1.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.01 |
0-1 |
2.87 |

1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.67 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |

4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.14 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |