2021 01 22 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Paris SG vs Montpellier at 22 January 2021
Monaco vs Marseille at 23 January 2021
Lens vs Nice at 23 January 2021
St Etienne vs Lyon at 24 January 2021
Rennes vs Lille at 24 January 2021
Reims vs Brest at 24 January 2021
Bordeaux vs Angers at 24 January 2021
Nimes vs Lorient at 24 January 2021
Metz vs Nantes at 24 January 2021
Dijon vs Strasbourg at 24 January 2021


Paris SG vs Montpellier at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.19

1.82

-29.1

Draw

7.86

4.08

11.8

Montpellier

14.11

4.83

13.6

Over 2.5

1.34

2.07

-26.3

Under 2.5

3.16

1.93

20.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Montpellier, Under 2.5 (11.8 %, 13.6 %, 20.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Brest

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Jan

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Strasbourg

H

4

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Lorient

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

1

W

O

G


Montpellier in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Monaco

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Lille

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Brest

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Metz

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Lens

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Paris SG

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

21%

25%

34%

20%

Montpellier

40%

35%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 3.11 goals and Montpellier to score 0.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.57 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.54 goals and Montpellier to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.92

1

5.81

2-3

1.92

2

3.83

4+

4.52

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.92

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.07

3.49

2-3 goals

1.54

6.00

5.49

4+ goals

2.03

2.99

5.82

Ov 1.5

1.65

4.61

5.59

Un 1.5

2.58

3.07

3.49

Ov 2.5

1.54

6.51

5.02

Un 2.5

2.19

3.04

4.69

Ov 3.5

2.03

2.99

5.82

Un 3.5

1.77

4.57

4.62

Goal-Goal

2.06

2.93

5.76

No Goal

1.65

6.34

4.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

5.20

4.70

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

6.34

3.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Monaco vs Marseille at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

1.82

2.21

-9.7

Draw

3.90

3.75

1.0

Marseille

4.14

3.57

3.9

Over 2.5

1.77

2.34

-13.8

Under 2.5

2.09

1.75

9.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Marseille, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.9 %, 9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monaco in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance at home.
Monaco, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Montpellier

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Jan

Lorient

A

5

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

St Etienne

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Lens

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Marseille

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Dec

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G


Marseille in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Lens

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Jan

Montpellier

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Angers

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Reims

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

27%

28%

33%

12%

Marseille

37%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.75 goals and Marseille to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.29 goals and Marseille to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.27

1

4.88

2-3

1.98

2

3.73

4+

5.24

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.27

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.03

3.12

2-3 goals

1.76

4.85

4.46

4+ goals

3.24

3.03

2.77

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.16

3.82

Un 1.5

2.86

3.03

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.92

6.78

3.01

Un 2.5

2.48

2.80

4.16

Ov 3.5

3.24

3.03

2.77

Un 3.5

2.06

3.95

3.84

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.74

4.09

No Goal

1.98

5.38

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.62

3.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

5.38

3.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lens vs Nice at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

2.14

2.24

-2.1

Draw

3.23

3.70

-3.9

Nice

3.69

3.55

1.1

Over 2.5

2.06

2.37

-6.3

Under 2.5

1.79

1.73

1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Marseille

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Strasbourg

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Lyon

A

2

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Monaco

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Montpellier

H

2

3

L

O

G


Nice in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

3

L

O

N

09 Jan

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Brest

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Lorient

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Lyon

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Dec

Nimes

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Rennes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

27%

30%

32%

12%

Nice

37%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.43 goals and Nice to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.27 goals and Nice to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.22

1

4.76

2-3

2.00

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.22

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.08

3.17

2-3 goals

1.82

4.60

4.32

4+ goals

3.19

3.08

2.76

Ov 1.5

2.06

4.05

3.74

Un 1.5

2.78

3.08

3.17

Ov 2.5

1.94

6.90

2.94

Un 2.5

2.52

2.76

4.17

Ov 3.5

3.19

3.08

2.76

Un 3.5

2.09

3.87

3.79

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.69

4.04

No Goal

1.99

5.38

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.70

3.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.38

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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St Etienne vs Lyon at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

7.91

2.65

25.1

Draw

4.66

3.56

6.6

Lyon

1.41

2.93

-36.8

Over 2.5

1.67

2.49

-19.7

Under 2.5

2.22

1.67

14.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at St Etienne, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.1 %, 6.6 %, 14.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Reims

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Monaco

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Nimes

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Dec

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N


Lyon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Rennes

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Lens

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Nantes

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Nice

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

31%

35%

25%

9%

Lyon

36%

36%

12%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 0.63 goals and Lyon to score 2.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 1.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.12 goals and Lyon to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

2.87

1

4.22

2-3

2.16

2

4.00

4+

5.32

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.87

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.14

3.14

2-3 goals