Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 23 January 2021
Aston Villa vs Newcastle at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Aston Villa |
1.51 |
1.68 |
-6.7 |
|
Draw |
4.54 |
4.27 |
1.4 |
|
Newcastle |
6.52 |
5.81 |
1.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.97 |
-7.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.03 |
3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Newcastle, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 1.9 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Jan |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Nov |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Newcastle in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Aston Villa |
15% |
31% |
26% |
28% |
|
Newcastle |
42% |
36% |
15% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 2.07 goals and Newcastle to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 1.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.67 goals and Newcastle to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.17 |
|
3 |
3.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.89 |
3.98 |
4.57 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.61 |
4.50 |
6.33 |
|
4+ goals |
1.66 |
4.21 |
6.32 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
4.40 |
6.33 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.89 |
3.98 |
4.57 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.43 |
8.93 |
5.30 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.79 |
6.38 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.21 |
6.32 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.32 |
5.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
2.89 |
5.76 |
|
No Goal |
1.42 |
8.15 |
5.80 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
6.68 |
4.43 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
8.15 |
4.90 |
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