2021 01 22 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Famalicao vs Guimaraes at 24 January 2021
Moreirense vs Portimonense at 24 January 2021
Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira at 24 January 2021
Rio Ave vs Santa Clara at 25 January 2021
Belenenses vs Tondela at 25 January 2021
Farense vs Porto at 25 January 2021
Benfica vs Nacional at 25 January 2021


Famalicao vs Guimaraes at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

3.26

8.13

-18.4

Draw

3.10

4.26

-8.8

Guimaraes

2.31

1.56

20.8

Over 2.5

2.15

2.42

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.70

1.70

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes (20.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Jan

Porto

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Jan

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Nov

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Nov

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G


Guimaraes in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Jan

Nacional

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Dec

Porto

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

Santa Clara

A

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Sp Lisbon

H

0

4

L

O

N

01 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

52%

36%

13%

-1%

Guimaraes

20%

27%

29%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.02 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 0.59 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the guest team Guimaraes to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.18

1

4.72

2-3

1.86

2

3.65

4+

6.71

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.18

5

35.71

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

-333.33

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.58

Ov 3.5

6.71

NoG

1.63

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.36

3.08

2.24

2-3 goals

9.26

5.48

1.41

4+ goals

-21.29

4.26

1.23

Ov 1.5

13.45

5.16

1.37

Un 1.5

4.36

3.08

2.24

Ov 2.5

16.48

11.77

1.17

Un 2.5

6.00

2.94

2.03

Ov 3.5

-21.29

4.26

1.23

Un 3.5

6.55

4.26

1.63

Goal-Goal

13.82

2.91

1.71

No Goal

6.45

6.01

1.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

10.32

8.26

1.28

NG+Un 2.5

5.00

6.01

1.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Moreirense vs Portimonense at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

2.66

1.65

23.0

Draw

3.15

4.31

-8.5

Portimonense

2.72

6.25

-20.8

Over 2.5

2.31

2.11

4.1

Under 2.5

1.61

1.90

-9.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (23 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Nacional

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Guimaraes

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Porto

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

Santa Clara

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Tondela

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Sp Lisbon

A

1

2

L

O

G


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Jan

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Jan

Rio Ave

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Jan

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Famalicao

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Nov

Nacional

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Porto

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

16%

30%

27%

26%

Portimonense

46%

34%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.11 goals and Portimonense to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.63 goals and Portimonense to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Moreirense to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.65

1

5.05

2-3

1.93

2

3.97

4+

4.81

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.65

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.93

3.61

4.89

2-3 goals

1.52

4.93

7.10

4+ goals

1.64

4.08

6.93

Ov 1.5

1.55

4.65

7.05

Un 1.5

1.93

3.61

4.89

Ov 2.5

1.39

9.29

5.85

Un 2.5

1.97

2.91

6.74

Ov 3.5

1.64

4.08

6.93

Un 3.5

1.64

4.38

6.14

Goal-Goal

2.04

2.87

6.22

No Goal

1.42

7.26

6.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

6.73

4.76

NG+Un 2.5

1.58

7.26

5.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maritimo

2.86

2.69

2.2

Draw

2.99

3.60

-5.7

Pacos Ferreira

2.64

2.86

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.60

2.15

8.1

Under 2.5

1.47

1.87

-14.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maritimo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Gil Vicente

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Jan

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Rio Ave

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Dec

Farense

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Nov

Benfica

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Famalicao

A

1

2

L

O

G


Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Dec

Moreirense

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Nov

Famalicao

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maritimo

28%

35%

21%

16%

Pacos Ferreira

28%

40%

17%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 0.98 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 1.24 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.48

1

4.78

2-3

2.10

2

4.07

4+

4.24

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.48

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.24

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

3.68

2.56

2-3 goals

2.55

3.41

3.18

4+ goals

2.68

3.93

2.68

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.56

3.00

Un 1.5

2.96

3.68

2.56

Ov 2.5

2.16

7.78

2.45

Un 2.5

3.42

2.44

3.35

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.93

2.68

Un 3.5

2.69

3.50

2.92

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.60

3.54

No Goal

2.41

6.15

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

6.33

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

6.15

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rio Ave vs Santa Clara at 25 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 25 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

1.97

2.29

-7.1

Draw

3.19

3.65

-4.0

Santa Clara

4.12

3.46

4.6

Over 2.5

2.29

2.23

1.2

Under 2.5

1.61

1.81

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (4.6 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Portimonense

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Nov

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N


Santa Clara in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Boavista

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Moreirense

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Dec

Guimaraes

H

0

4

L

O

N

06 Dec

Nacional

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Nov

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

26%

34%

22%

18%

Santa Clara

35%

37%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.38 goals and Santa Clara to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.32 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.29

1

4.67

2-3

2.08

2

4.02

4+

4.63

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.29

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

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