# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Famalicao vs Guimaraes at 24 January 2021**** Moreirense vs Portimonense at 24 January 2021**** Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira at 24 January 2021**** Rio Ave vs Santa Clara at 25 January 2021**** Belenenses vs Tondela at 25 January 2021**** Farense vs Porto at 25 January 2021**** Benfica vs Nacional at 25 January 2021**

###
Famalicao vs Guimaraes at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Famalicao** and **Guimaraes** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **24 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Famalicao |
3.26 |
8.13 |
-18.4 |

Draw |
3.10 |
4.26 |
-8.8 |

Guimaraes |
2.31 |
1.56 |
20.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.42 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.70 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Guimaraes (20.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Famalicao** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Famalicao** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance** at home**.

Famalicao,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Famalicao scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Santa Clara |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Porto |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** as a guest**.

Guimaraes,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Santa Clara |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Famalicao** and the red line for guest team, **Guimaraes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Famalicao |
52% |
36% |
13% |
-1% |

Guimaraes |
20% |
27% |
29% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Famalicao** to score **0.59 ** goals and **Guimaraes** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the guest team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.18 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
1.86 |

2 |
3.65 |
4+ |
6.71 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
8.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |

5 |
35.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |

6+ |
-333.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |

Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.71 |

NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.36 |
3.08 |
2.24 |

2-3 goals |
9.26 |
5.48 |
1.41 |

4+ goals |
-21.29 |
4.26 |
1.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
13.45 |
5.16 |
1.37 |

Un 1.5 |
4.36 |
3.08 |
2.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
16.48 |
11.77 |
1.17 |

Un 2.5 |
6.00 |
2.94 |
2.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
-21.29 |
4.26 |
1.23 |

Un 3.5 |
6.55 |
4.26 |
1.63 |

Goal-Goal |
13.82 |
2.91 |
1.71 |

No Goal |
6.45 |
6.01 |
1.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
10.32 |
8.26 |
1.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
5.00 |
6.01 |
1.69 |

####
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###
Moreirense vs Portimonense at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Moreirense** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **24 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Moreirense |
2.66 |
1.65 |
23.0 |

Draw |
3.15 |
4.31 |
-8.5 |

Portimonense |
2.72 |
6.25 |
-20.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.11 |
4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.90 |
-9.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Moreirense, Over 2.5 (23 %, 4.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** at home**.

Moreirense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Porto |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 14.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Nacional |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Porto |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Moreirense** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Moreirense |
16% |
30% |
27% |
26% |

Portimonense |
46% |
34% |
14% |
5% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Moreirense ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.93 |
3.61 |
4.89 |

2-3 goals |
1.52 |
4.93 |
7.10 |

4+ goals |
1.64 |
4.08 |
6.93 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |
4.65 |
7.05 |

Un 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.61 |
4.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
9.29 |
5.85 |

Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.91 |
6.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.64 |
4.08 |
6.93 |

Un 3.5 |
1.64 |
4.38 |
6.14 |

Goal-Goal |
2.04 |
2.87 |
6.22 |

No Goal |
1.42 |
7.26 |
6.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
6.73 |
4.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.58 |
7.26 |
5.40 |

####
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###
Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maritimo** and **Pacos Ferreira** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **24 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maritimo |
2.86 |
2.69 |
2.2 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.60 |
-5.7 |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.64 |
2.86 |
-2.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.60 |
2.15 |
8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.87 |
-14.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maritimo, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 8.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** at home**.

Maritimo,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Nov |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** as a guest**.

Pacos Ferreira,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maritimo** and the red line for guest team, **Pacos Ferreira. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maritimo |
28% |
35% |
21% |
16% |

Pacos Ferreira |
28% |
40% |
17% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.01** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maritimo** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.96 |
3.68 |
2.56 |

2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.41 |
3.18 |

4+ goals |
2.68 |
3.93 |
2.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.56 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
3.68 |
2.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
7.78 |
2.45 |

Un 2.5 |
3.42 |
2.44 |
3.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.93 |
2.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.50 |
2.92 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.60 |
3.54 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
6.15 |
2.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.33 |
2.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
6.15 |
2.47 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rio Ave vs Santa Clara at 25 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rio Ave** and **Santa Clara** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **25 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rio Ave |
1.97 |
2.29 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.65 |
-4.0 |

Santa Clara |
4.12 |
3.46 |
4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.23 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.81 |
-6.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (4.6 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** at home**.

Rio Ave,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Nov |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** as a guest**.

Santa Clara,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rio Ave** and the red line for guest team, **Santa Clara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rio Ave |
26% |
34% |
22% |
18% |

Santa Clara |
35% |
37% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 </ |