Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Albacete vs Zaragoza at 22 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Alcorcon at 22 January 2021
Malaga vs Ponferradina at 23 January 2021
Lugo vs Tenerife at 23 January 2021
Girona vs Espanol at 23 January 2021
Vallecano vs Mallorca at 23 January 2021
Logrones vs Oviedo at 24 January 2021
Las Palmas vs Leganes at 24 January 2021
Castellon vs Sp Gijon at 24 January 2021
Almeria vs Sabadell at 24 January 2021
Cartagena vs Mirandes at 25 January 2021
Albacete vs Zaragoza at 22 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Albacete |
3.07 |
2.14 |
14.2 |
|
Draw |
2.82 |
3.65 |
-8.1 |
|
Zaragoza |
2.61 |
3.86 |
-12.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.29 |
7.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.42 |
1.78 |
-14.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (14.2 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Albacete in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance at home.
Albacete, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Zaragoza in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Albacete |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Zaragoza |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 0.91 goals and Zaragoza to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.35 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Albacete to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |
Go to Top
Fuenlabrada vs Alcorcon at 22 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Alcorcon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Fuenlabrada |
2.53 |
2.14 |
7.2 |
|
Draw |
2.82 |
3.65 |
-8.1 |
|
Alcorcon |
3.20 |
3.86 |
-5.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.29 |
7.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.78 |
-13.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (7.2 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
11 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Alcorcon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance as a guest.
Alcorcon, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Alcorcon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Fuenlabrada |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Alcorcon |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.05 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.35 goals and Alcorcon to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |
Go to Top
Malaga vs Ponferradina at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Malaga and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Malaga |
2.38 |
2.36 |
0.4 |
|
Draw |
2.84 |
3.53 |
-6.9 |
|
Ponferradina |
3.39 |
3.41 |
-0.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.42 |
4.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.71 |
-11.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Malaga, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Malaga in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance at home.
Malaga, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Ponferradina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Malaga and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Malaga |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |
|
Ponferradina |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.1 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.24 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |
|
1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.82 |
3.47 |
|
4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.60 |
3.51 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
7.00 |
2.91 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.60 |
3.88 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.62 |
3.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.50 |
3.97 |
|
No Goal |
2.05 |
5.54 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.81 |
2.88 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.54 |
3.02 |
Go to Top
Lugo vs Tenerife at 23 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lugo |
2.85 |
2.02 |
14.4 |
|
Draw |
2.83 |
3.76 |
-8.7 |
|
Tenerife |
2.76 |
4.20 |
-12.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.21 |
10.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.40 |
1.83 |
-16.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (14.4 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lugo in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
11 Jan |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Tenerife in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance as a guest.
Tenerife, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
10 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Girona |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Albacete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lugo |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |
|
Tenerife |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 0.94 goals and Tenerife to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.89 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.42 goals and Tenerife to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |