# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Albacete vs Zaragoza at 22 January 2021**** Fuenlabrada vs Alcorcon at 22 January 2021**** Malaga vs Ponferradina at 23 January 2021**** Lugo vs Tenerife at 23 January 2021**** Girona vs Espanol at 23 January 2021**** Vallecano vs Mallorca at 23 January 2021**** Logrones vs Oviedo at 24 January 2021**** Las Palmas vs Leganes at 24 January 2021**** Castellon vs Sp Gijon at 24 January 2021**** Almeria vs Sabadell at 24 January 2021**** Cartagena vs Mirandes at 25 January 2021**

###
Albacete vs Zaragoza at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Albacete** and **Zaragoza** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Albacete |
3.07 |
2.14 |
14.2 |

Draw |
2.82 |
3.65 |
-8.1 |

Zaragoza |
2.61 |
3.86 |
-12.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.29 |
7.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.42 |
1.78 |
-14.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Albacete, Over 2.5 (14.2 %, 7.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Albacete** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Albacete** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance** at home**.

Albacete,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** as a guest**.

Zaragoza,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 6.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Albacete** and the red line for guest team, **Zaragoza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Albacete |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |

Zaragoza |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Albacete** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.93** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Albacete** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Albacete ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |

####
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###
Fuenlabrada vs Alcorcon at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fuenlabrada** and **Alcorcon** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fuenlabrada |
2.53 |
2.14 |
7.2 |

Draw |
2.82 |
3.65 |
-8.1 |

Alcorcon |
3.20 |
3.86 |
-5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.29 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.78 |
-13.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (7.2 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** at home**.

Fuenlabrada,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mallorca |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Malaga |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Alcorcon** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alcorcon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance** as a guest**.

Alcorcon,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Girona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fuenlabrada** and the red line for guest team, **Alcorcon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fuenlabrada |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |

Alcorcon |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Alcorcon** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.94** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fuenlabrada** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Alcorcon** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Fuenlabrada ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |

####
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###
Malaga vs Ponferradina at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Malaga** and **Ponferradina** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Malaga |
2.38 |
2.36 |
0.4 |

Draw |
2.84 |
3.53 |
-6.9 |

Ponferradina |
3.39 |
3.41 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.42 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.71 |
-11.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Malaga, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Malaga** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Malaga** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance** at home**.

Malaga,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Cartagena |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Girona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** as a guest**.

Ponferradina,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Malaga** and the red line for guest team, **Ponferradina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Malaga |
27% |
35% |
24% |
13% |

Ponferradina |
35% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Malaga** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.96** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Malaga** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.48 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.82 |
3.47 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.60 |
3.51 |

Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.35 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
7.00 |
2.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.60 |
3.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.14 |
3.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.62 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.50 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
2.05 |
5.54 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.81 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.54 |
3.02 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lugo vs Tenerife at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lugo** and **Tenerife** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lugo |
2.85 |
2.02 |
14.4 |

Draw |
2.83 |
3.76 |
-8.7 |

Tenerife |
2.76 |
4.20 |
-12.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.21 |
10.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.40 |
1.83 |
-16.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lugo, Over 2.5 (14.4 %, 10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** at home**.

Lugo,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 Jan |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Tenerife** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tenerife** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance** as a guest**.

Tenerife,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Girona |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Albacete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lugo** and the red line for guest team, **Tenerife. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lugo |
21% |
34% |
26% |
18% |

Tenerife |
38% |
37% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **0.94 ** goals and **Tenerife** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.89** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lugo** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Tenerife** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Lugo ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.81 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.81 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |