# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Benevento vs Torino at 22 January 2021**** Milan vs Atalanta at 23 January 2021**** Udinese vs Inter at 23 January 2021**** Fiorentina vs Crotone at 23 January 2021**** Roma vs Spezia at 23 January 2021**** Parma vs Sampdoria at 24 January 2021**** Verona vs Napoli at 24 January 2021**** Lazio vs Sassuolo at 24 January 2021**** Juventus vs Bologna at 24 January 2021**** Genoa vs Cagliari at 24 January 2021**

###
Benevento vs Torino at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Benevento** and **Torino** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Benevento |
2.85 |
2.82 |
0.4 |

Draw |
3.17 |
3.60 |
-3.8 |

Torino |
2.64 |
2.72 |
-1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.22 |
-6.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.82 |
1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Benevento, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Benevento** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benevento** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance** at home**.

Benevento,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Milan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Genoa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Sassuolo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** as a guest**.

Torino,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Dec |
Roma |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Benevento** and the red line for guest team, **Torino. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Benevento |
34% |
27% |
28% |
11% |

Torino |
39% |
15% |
32% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Benevento** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1.28 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Benevento** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
6.33 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.48 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.71 |
2.20 |
5.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
11.66 |
1.99 |

4+ goals |
4.48 |
2.22 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.86 |
4.87 |
2.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.71 |
2.20 |
5.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.28 |
4.30 |
2.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
3.17 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
2.22 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
4.44 |
2.64 |

Goal-Goal |
4.25 |
2.77 |
2.48 |

No Goal |
2.29 |
4.52 |
2.93 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.82 |
3.46 |
2.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
4.52 |
3.22 |

####
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###
Milan vs Atalanta at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Milan** and **Atalanta** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Milan |
2.68 |
2.48 |
3.0 |

Draw |
3.76 |
2.71 |
10.3 |

Atalanta |
2.45 |
4.39 |
-18.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.57 |
2.48 |
-23.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.68 |
19.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Milan, Draw, Under 2.5 (3 %, 10.3 %, 19.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Milan** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milan** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance** at home**.

Milan,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Torino |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** as a guest**.

Atalanta,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Parma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Roma |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Milan** and the red line for guest team, **Atalanta. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Milan |
33% |
5% |
50% |
11% |

Atalanta |
53% |
2% |
36% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Milan** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **1.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Milan** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Milan ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
5.68 |
0-1 |
4.78 |

1 |
30.30 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
2.58 |
4+ |
3.50 |

3 |
8.47 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.78 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
3.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.50 |

NoG |
1.46 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
7.74 |
1.19 |
34.83 |

2-3 goals |
1.52 |
505.00 |
2.95 |

4+ goals |
6.81 |
1.49 |
5.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
4.10 |
3.55 |

Un 1.5 |
7.74 |
1.19 |
34.83 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.10 |
3.96 |

Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
3.37 |
4.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.81 |
1.49 |
5.50 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
4.03 |
4.03 |

Goal-Goal |
6.18 |
1.63 |
4.44 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
3.89 |
4.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
6.16 |
1.64 |
4.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
3.89 |
4.69 |

####
Go to Top

###
Udinese vs Inter at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Udinese** and **Inter** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Udinese |
5.76 |
3.39 |
12.1 |

Draw |
3.99 |
3.83 |
1.0 |

Inter |
1.62 |
2.25 |
-17.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.99 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.01 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Udinese, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 1 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Udinese** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Udinese** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance** at home**.

Udinese,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Benevento |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Cagliari |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Crotone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Inter** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Inter** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance** as a guest**.

Inter,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Juventus |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Roma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Crotone |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Verona |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Cagliari |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Udinese** and the red line for guest team, **Inter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Udinese |
37% |
22% |
32% |
8% |

Inter |
28% |
24% |
26% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Udinese** to score **0.76 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the guest team **Inter ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Udinese** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
6.62 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.23 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.08 |
2.42 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
9.23 |
2.03 |

4+ goals |
6.41 |
2.55 |
2.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.20 |
4.79 |
2.09 |

Un 1.5 |
4.08 |
2.42 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.58 |
4.86 |
1.94 |

Un 2.5 |
3.22 |
3.16 |
2.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.41 |
2.55 |
2.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.90 |
4.66 |
2.27 |

Goal-Goal |
3.84 |
2.90 |
2.54 |

No Goal |
3.10 |
5.20 |
2.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.39 |
3.85 |
2.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
5.20 |
2.40 |

####
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###
Fiorentina vs Crotone at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fiorentina** and **Crotone** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **23 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fiorentina |
1.68 |
1.98 |
-9.0 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.91 |
-0.1 |

Crotone |
5.09 |
4.17 |
4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.92 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.09 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crotone (4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fiorentina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fiorentina** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance** at home**.

Fiorentina,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Juventus |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** as a guest**.

Crotone,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 7.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Benevento |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Verona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Roma |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Inter |
A |
2 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Parma |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Sampdoria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Spezia |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fiorentina** and the red line for guest team, **Crotone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fiorentina |
24% |
15% |
42% |
19% |

Crotone |
37% |
29% |
25% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Fiorentina ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Crotone** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Fiorentina ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
4.61 |

1 |
7.94 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
3.69 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.61 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |