2021 01 22 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Benevento vs Torino at 22 January 2021
Milan vs Atalanta at 23 January 2021
Udinese vs Inter at 23 January 2021
Fiorentina vs Crotone at 23 January 2021
Roma vs Spezia at 23 January 2021
Parma vs Sampdoria at 24 January 2021
Verona vs Napoli at 24 January 2021
Lazio vs Sassuolo at 24 January 2021
Juventus vs Bologna at 24 January 2021
Genoa vs Cagliari at 24 January 2021


Benevento vs Torino at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Benevento and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benevento

2.85

2.82

0.4

Draw

3.17

3.60

-3.8

Torino

2.64

2.72

-1.1

Over 2.5

1.96

2.22

-6.0

Under 2.5

1.87

1.82

1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benevento in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance at home.
Benevento, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Atalanta

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Genoa

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Dec

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N


Torino in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Udinese

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benevento

34%

27%

28%

11%

Torino

39%

15%

32%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.21 goals and Torino to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.17 goals and Torino to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

3.45

1

6.33

2-3

2.09

2

3.86

4+

4.29

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.45

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.48

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

1.68

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

2.20

5.69

2-3 goals

2.43

11.66

1.99

4+ goals

4.48

2.22

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.86

4.87

2.25

Un 1.5

2.71

2.20

5.69

Ov 2.5

3.28

4.30

2.16

Un 2.5

2.52

3.17

3.47

Ov 3.5

4.48

2.22

3.07

Un 3.5

2.53

4.44

2.64

Goal-Goal

4.25

2.77

2.48

No Goal

2.29

4.52

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.82

3.46

2.23

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

4.52

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Milan vs Atalanta at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milan and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milan

2.68

2.48

3.0

Draw

3.76

2.71

10.3

Atalanta

2.45

4.39

-18.0

Over 2.5

1.57

2.48

-23.4

Under 2.5

2.48

1.68

19.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Milan, Draw, Under 2.5 (3 %, 10.3 %, 19.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milan in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance at home.
Milan, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Torino

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Benevento

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lazio

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Dec

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G


Atalanta in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance as a guest.
Atalanta, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Udinese

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Benevento

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Parma

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Sassuolo

H

5

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Roma

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Juventus

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milan and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milan

33%

5%

50%

11%

Atalanta

53%

2%

36%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milan to score 1.47 goals and Atalanta to score 1.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milan to score 1.39 goals and Atalanta to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Milan to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.68

0-1

4.78

1

30.30

2-3

1.98

2

2.58

4+

3.50

3

8.47

Ov 1.5

1.26

4

5.29

Un 1.5

4.78

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

3.17

Ov 3.5

3.50

NoG

1.46

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

7.74

1.19

34.83

2-3 goals

1.52

505.00

2.95

4+ goals

6.81

1.49

5.50

Ov 1.5

2.11

4.10

3.55

Un 1.5

7.74

1.19

34.83

Ov 2.5

3.67

2.10

3.96

Un 2.5

2.04

3.37

4.69

Ov 3.5

6.81

1.49

5.50

Un 3.5

1.98

4.03

4.03

Goal-Goal

6.18

1.63

4.44

No Goal

1.95

3.89

4.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

6.16

1.64

4.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

3.89

4.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Udinese vs Inter at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Udinese and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Udinese

5.76

3.39

12.1

Draw

3.99

3.83

1.0

Inter

1.62

2.25

-17.3

Over 2.5

1.82

1.99

-4.7

Under 2.5

2.03

2.01

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Udinese, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 1 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Udinese in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance at home.
Udinese, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Sampdoria

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Jan

Napoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Juventus

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Dec

Benevento

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Crotone

H

0

0

D

U

N


Inter in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Juventus

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Sampdoria

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Crotone

H

6

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Napoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

Cagliari

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Udinese and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Udinese

37%

22%

32%

8%

Inter

28%

24%

26%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Udinese to score 0.76 goals and Inter to score 1.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Udinese to score 1.12 goals and Inter to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

3.89

1

6.62

2-3

2.08

2

4.13

4+

3.80

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.89

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.23

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.08

2.42

2.92

2-3 goals

2.51

9.23

2.03

4+ goals

6.41

2.55

2.21

Ov 1.5

3.20

4.79

2.09

Un 1.5

4.08

2.42

2.92

Ov 2.5

3.58

4.86

1.94

Un 2.5

3.22

3.16

2.68

Ov 3.5

6.41

2.55

2.21

Un 3.5

2.90

4.66

2.27

Goal-Goal

3.84

2.90

2.54

No Goal

3.10

5.20

2.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.39

3.85

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.88

5.20

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Fiorentina vs Crotone at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Crotone for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

1.68

1.98

-9.0

Draw

3.90

3.91

-0.1

Crotone

5.09

4.17

4.3

Over 2.5

1.87

1.92

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.96

2.09

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone (4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Napoli

A

0

6

L

O

N

10 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Bologna

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Juventus

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Atalanta

A

0

3

L

O

N


Crotone in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance as a guest.
Crotone, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 7.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Benevento

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Verona

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Roma

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Inter

A

2

6

L

O

G

22 Dec

Parma

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Sampdoria

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Udinese

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Crotone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

24%

15%

42%

19%

Crotone

37%

29%

25%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.79 goals and Crotone to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.55 goals and Crotone to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

4.61

1

7.94

2-3

1.96

2

3.82

4+

3.69

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.61

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

3.69

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at