2021 01 22 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Entella vs Pisa at 22 January 2021
Venezia vs Cittadella at 23 January 2021
Salernitana vs Pescara at 23 January 2021
Frosinone vs Reggina at 23 January 2021
Cosenza vs Pordenone at 23 January 2021
Ascoli vs Chievo at 23 January 2021
Lecce vs Empoli at 24 January 2021
Cremonese vs Spal at 24 January 2021
Brescia vs Monza at 25 January 2021


Virtus Entella vs Pisa at 22 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 22 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

3.00

2.61

5.0

Draw

3.11

3.66

-4.8

Pisa

2.43

2.91

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.00

2.10

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.82

1.91

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Chievo

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Pescara

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Dec

Salernitana

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Pordenone

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Monza

A

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Empoli

H

2

5

L

O

G


Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Venezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Chievo

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Lecce

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Ascoli

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

27%

32%

31%

11%

Pisa

28%

37%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.13 goals and Pisa to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.26 goals and Pisa to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.79

1

5.29

2-3

1.97

2

3.85

4+

4.37

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.52

2.69

2-3 goals

2.21

4.34

3.16

4+ goals

3.63

2.86

2.66

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.74

2.98

Un 1.5

2.90

3.52

2.69

Ov 2.5

2.32

5.96

2.50

Un 2.5

2.94

2.73

3.40

Ov 3.5

3.63

2.86

2.66

Un 3.5

2.40

4.02

2.98

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.67

3.42

No Goal

2.27

6.33

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.11

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

6.33

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Cittadella at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.84

2.49

4.9

Draw

2.91

3.50

-5.8

Cittadella

2.68

3.21

-6.2

Over 2.5

2.24

2.30

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.65

1.77

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Pordenone

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Dec

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Spal

H

0

0

D

U

N

14 Dec

Reggina

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Dec

Monza

H

0

2

L

U

N


Cittadella in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance as a guest.
Cittadella, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Reggiana

A

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Lecce

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

Frosinone

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Reggina

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Vicenza

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Spal

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Cittadella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

26%

35%

27%

12%

Cittadella

30%

41%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.1 goals and Cittadella to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.24 goals and Cittadella to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.44

1

4.69

2-3

1.95

2

3.64

4+

5.13

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.44

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.73

2.69

2-3 goals

2.26

3.54

3.62

4+ goals

2.79

3.10

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.41

3.48

Un 1.5

2.77

3.73

2.69

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.89

2.80

Un 2.5

3.04

2.54

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.10

3.15

Un 3.5

2.42

3.61

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.50

4.02

No Goal

2.19

6.17

2.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.94

2.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.17

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Salernitana vs Pescara at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.13

1.97

3.8

Draw

3.14

3.79

-5.5

Pescara

3.59

4.39

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.17

2.24

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.69

1.81

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Empoli

A

0

5

L

O

N

04 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Monza

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Dec

Venezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Dec

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Brescia

A

1

3

L

O

G


Pescara in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

0

3

L

O

N

22 Dec

Brescia

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Monza

H

3

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

19%

38%

23%

20%

Pescara

40%

35%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.35 goals and Pescara to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Salernitana to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.44 goals and Pescara to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Salernitana to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.37

1

4.57

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.83

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.37

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.95

3.81

4.43

2-3 goals

1.97

3.79

4.39

4+ goals

2.01

3.70

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.76

4.37

Un 1.5

1.95

3.81

4.43

Ov 2.5

1.70

7.98

3.49

Un 2.5

2.27

2.65

5.53

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.70

4.31

Un 3.5

1.96

3.79

4.41

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.58

4.27

No Goal

1.60

6.63

4.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.29

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

6.63

4.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Frosinone vs Reggina at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Reggina for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Frosinone

2.28

2.28

0.0

Draw

2.80

3.37

-6.0

Reggina

3.68

3.77

-0.6

Over 2.5

2.39

2.54

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.57

1.65

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Jan

Spal

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Dec

Pordenone

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Reggiana

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

05 Dec

Chievo

H

3

2

W

O

G


Reggina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance as a guest.
Reggina, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Lecce

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Cittadella

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Dec

Venezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Dec

Chievo

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Frosinone

21%

48%

13%

17%

Reggina

37%

38%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.24 goals and Reggina to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.27 goals and Reggina to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

2.95

1

3.86

2-3

2.08

2

3.75

4+

5.52

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.94

Un 1.5

2.95

5

24.39

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.89