2021 01 22 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete at 23 January 2021
Apollon vs Aris at 23 January 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa at 23 January 2021
Atromitos vs Olympiakos at 24 January 2021
Panetolikos vs Lamia at 24 January 2021
PAOK vs AEK at 24 January 2021
Giannina vs Volos NFC at 24 January 2021


Panathinaikos vs OFI Crete at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panathinaikos

1.55

1.92

-12.4

Draw

3.95

3.60

2.5

OFI Crete

5.93

4.95

3.3

Over 2.5

2.19

2.66

-8.1

Under 2.5

1.68

1.60

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, OFI Crete, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 3.3 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Larisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Dec

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Giannina

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

AEK

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Panetolikos

H

2

1

W

O

G


OFI Crete in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

PAOK

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Jan

Atromitos

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

Lamia

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Apollon

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Giannina

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panathinaikos

27%

33%

19%

21%

OFI Crete

50%

34%

11%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.65 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.34 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.73 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.52

0-1

2.58

1

3.92

2-3

2.20

2

4.24

4+

6.37

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.63

4

9.09

Un 1.5

2.58

5

29.41

Ov 2.5

2.66

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.60

Gg

2.71

Ov 3.5

6.37

NoG

1.58

Un 3.5

1.19

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

2.92

4.31

2-3 goals

1.72

4.06

5.76

4+ goals

1.71

4.76

4.91

Ov 1.5

1.72

4.22

5.51

Un 1.5

2.35

2.92

4.31

Ov 2.5

1.45

11.39

4.53

Un 2.5

2.39

2.55

5.29

Ov 3.5

1.71

4.76

4.91

Un 3.5

1.97

3.44

4.99

Goal-Goal

2.35

2.54

5.51

No Goal

1.73

4.74

4.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

7.79

3.84

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

4.74

4.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Apollon vs Aris at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

3.47

3.08

3.6

Draw

3.03

3.57

-5.0

Aris

2.13

2.53

-7.4

Over 2.5

2.46

2.36

1.7

Under 2.5

1.50

1.73

-8.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 19.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Jan

Giannina

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Dec

AEK

H

3

4

L

O

G

06 Dec

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Nov

Volos NFC

H

3

3

D

O

G


Aris in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Jan

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

11 Jan

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

Volos NFC

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Lamia

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

OFI Crete

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Dec

PAOK

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Atromitos

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

34%

35%

23%

8%

Aris

31%

31%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.86 goals and Aris to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the guest team Aris to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.06 goals and Aris to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.16

1

4.72

2-3

2.03

2

3.82

4+

5.13

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.16

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.93

3.04

3.04

2-3 goals

2.86

4.56

2.32

4+ goals

4.24

2.87

2.41

Ov 1.5

3.15

3.90

2.34

Un 1.5

2.93

3.04

3.04

Ov 2.5

2.93

6.25

2.00

Un 2.5

3.19

2.73

3.12

Ov 3.5

4.24

2.87

2.41

Un 3.5

2.89

3.81

2.56

Goal-Goal

3.87

2.61

2.79

No Goal

2.62

5.22

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.96

5.18

2.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

5.22

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa at 23 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 23 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

1.75

1.84

-2.8

Draw

3.46

3.69

-1.8

Larisa

4.76

5.41

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.32

2.62

-4.9

Under 2.5

1.62

1.62

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Olympiakos

H

0

4

L

O

N

03 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Giannina

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Dec

Atromitos

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Dec

Volos NFC

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

PAOK

A

0

2

L

U

N


Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Jan

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

5

L

O

G

12 Dec

OFI Crete

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Dec

Aris

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

26%

33%

18%

23%

Larisa

50%

34%

12%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.47 goals and Larisa to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.39 goals and Larisa to score 0.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

2.62

1

3.95

2-3

2.15

2

4.22

4+

6.49

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

8.93

Un 1.5

2.62

5

29.41

Ov 2.5

2.62

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.62

Gg

2.70

Ov 3.5

6.49

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

2.98

4.38

2-3 goals

1.72

4.12

5.74

4+ goals

1.45

4.97

9.06

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.30

6.32

Un 1.5

2.30

2.98

4.38

Ov 2.5

1.35

12.32

5.70

Un 2.5

2.39

2.56

5.24

Ov 3.5

1.45

4.97

9.06

Un 3.5

1.94

3.51

5.04

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.58

6.40

No Goal

1.68

4.91

4.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.53

8.32

4.45

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

4.91

4.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Atromitos vs Olympiakos at 24 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 24 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

6.59

3.25

15.6

Draw

4.22

3.31

6.5

Olympiakos

1.45

2.56

-29.9

Over 2.5

1.77

2.87

-21.7

Under 2.5

2.05

1.54

16.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos, Draw, Under 2.5 (15.6 %, 6.5 %, 16.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Jan

Lamia

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

PAOK

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Jan

Volos NFC

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Dec

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Aris

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N


Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 18 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Giannina

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

PAOK

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Panetolikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

4

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

AEK

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Larisa

H

5

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Lamia

A

6

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

37%

40%

15%

7%

Olympiakos

35%

33%

18%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 0.67 goals and Olympiakos to score 2.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 0.92 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

2.53

1

3.79

2-3

2.20

2

3.91

4+

6.67

3

5.03

Ov 1.5

1.65

4

9.43

Un 1.5

2.53

5

29.41

Ov 2.5

2.87

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

2.45

Ov 3.5

6.67

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82