2021 01 23 ABA Adriatic League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Partizan vs FMP at 23 January 2021
Borac vs Buducnost at 23 January 2021
Mega vs Cibona at 24 January 2021
Krka vs Zadar at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Partizan vs FMP at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Partizan and FMP for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Partizan

1.14

2.36

FMP

5.4

1.73

Partizan HC

-10.5

3.00

FMP HC

+10.5

-3.00

Point Line

157.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Buducnost VOLI

L

72

80

6

7

L 2

82

85

Jan 9

A

Borac Cacak

L

71

75

6

6

L 1

74

79

Jan 3

A

KK Split

W

86

74

6

5

W 1

92

83

Dec 19

A

KK Krka

L

50

69

5

5

L 1

55

76

Dec 12

H

Mega Basket

W

79

77

5

4

W 1

88

80

Nov 23

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

85

86

4

4

L 1

101

87

Nov 14

A

Cibona Zagreb

W

82

75

4

3

W 2

81

75

Nov 7

H

KK Zadar

W

78

63

3

3

W 1

87

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of FMP are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

KK Split

W

96

92

3

8

W 2

103

103

Dec 30

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

91

88

2

8

W 1

99

82

Dec 25

H

Mega Basket

L

91

92

1

8

L 5

101

95

Dec 15

H

KK Zadar

L

89

99

1

7

L 4

99

113

Dec 12

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

75

111

1

6

L 3

89

113

Dec 9

A

KK Igokea

L

74

84

1

5

L 2

80

83

Dec 4

A

Cibona Zagreb

L

80

93

1

4

L 1

79

93

Nov 2

H

Borac Cacak

W

93

87

1

3

W 1

97

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by FMP.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by FMP and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Partizan (in the first graph) and by FMP in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Partizan will expected to score 91 points and the FMP 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 177.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Partizan

FMP

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

15.00

19.10

DRB

20.60

25.90

AST-TO

1.17

1.31

TRB

32.50

37.90

FTM

14.40

17.20

BL

2.60

2.10

FTA

20.10

24.50

PF-Fewer

23.30

27.60

ST

7.20

7.70

TO-Fewer

12.80

14.60

Ftper

0.72

0.70

ORBper

0.57

0.46

ORB

11.80

12.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Borac vs Buducnost at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Borac and Buducnost for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Borac

3.05

2.33

Buducnost

1.36

1.75

Borac HC

+6.5

3.00

Buducnost HC

-6.5

-3.00

Point Line

161.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Borac are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Partizan NIS

W

75

71

3

7

W 2

82

75

Dec 27

H

KK Split

W

90

69

2

7

W 1

96

78

Dec 5

A

KK Igokea

L

71

73

1

7

L 7

77

72

Nov 19

H

KK Krka

L

86

90

1

6

L 6

95

100

Nov 15

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

88

97

1

5

L 5

96

91

Nov 6

H

Mega Basket

L

83

97

1

4

L 4

92

100

Nov 2

A

KK FMP

L

87

93

1

3

L 3

78

87

Oct 17

A

Buducnost VOLI

L

83

86

1

2

L 2

95

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

84

95

8

3

L 1

92

89

Jan 16

H

Partizan NIS

W

80

72

8

2

W 1

87

76

Jan 9

A

KK Split

L

77

78

7

2

L 1

82

88

Dec 25

H

KK Krka

W

70

62

7

1

W 1

77

69

Dec 20

A

Mega Basket

L

72

78

6

1

L 1

80

81

Dec 6

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

67

65

6

0

W 5

80

66

Nov 22

H

Cibona Zagreb

W

87

68

5

0

W 4

86

68

Oct 25

H

KK FMP

W

77

76

4

0

W 3

69

71

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Borac and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Borac.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Borac (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Borac will expected to score 84 points and the Buducnost 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Borac

Buducnost

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

15.60

12.90

DRB

18.80

20.80

AST-TO

1.32

1.03

TRB

27.20

29.50

FTM

18.00

18.90

BL

2.10

2.30

FTA

24.70

23.10

PF-Fewer

24.40

20.10

ST

8.00

6.70

TO-Fewer

11.80

12.50

Ftper

0.73

0.82

ORBper

0.45

0.41

ORB

8.40

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Mega vs Cibona at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mega and Cibona for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Mega

1.26

1.24

Cibona

3.7

5.10

Mega HC

-8.5

-8.50

Cibona HC

+8.5

8.50

Point Line

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mega are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

KK Zadar

W

90

83

10

4

W 1

100

95

Jan 10

H

KK Igokea

L

84

86

9

4

L 2

91

85

Jan 2

H

Cedevita Olimpija

L

88

93

9

3

L 1

96

87

Dec 25

A

KK FMP

W

92

91

9

2

W 2

82

85

Dec 20

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

78

72

8

2

W 1

89

77

Dec 12

A

Partizan NIS

L

77

79

7

2

L 1

84

84

Dec 6

H

KK Split

W

91

75

7

1

W 4

98

84

Nov 15

H

KK Krka

W

71

70

5

1

W 2

78

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Cibona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Oct 26

A

KK Krka

W

80

63

1

2

W 1

88

70

Oct 18

H

Mega Basket

L

73

77

0

2

L 1

81

80

Oct 5

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

66

104

0

1

L 0

78

106

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mega and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Cibona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Cibona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mega.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mega (in the first graph) and by Cibona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mega will expected to score 90 points and the Cibona 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 176.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Mega

Cibona

FG%

0.55

0.54

ASS

20.10

19.20

DRB

25.50

20.80

AST-TO

1.43

1.28

TRB

34.50

29.30

FTM

16.10

14.40

BL

3.40

1.80

FTA

21.20

19.00

PF-Fewer

21.60

24.40

ST

4.90

6.90

TO-Fewer

14.10

15.00

Ftper

0.76

0.76

ORBper

0.35

0.41

ORB

9.00

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Krka vs Zadar at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Krka and Zadar for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Krka

1.35

2.48

Zadar

3.15

1.67

Krka HC

-6.5

3.50

Zadar HC

+6.5

-3.50

Point Line

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Krka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Nov 19

A

Borac Cacak

W

90

86

2

5

W 1

94

91

Nov 15

A

Mega Basket

L

70

71

1

5

L 4

78

74

Nov 2

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

62

88

1

4

L 3

74

89

Oct 26

H

Cibona Zagreb

L

63

80

1

3

L 2

62

80

Oct 21

H

KK Igokea

L

69

70

1

2

L 1

74

69

Oct 19

A

KK Zadar

W

73

70

1

1

W 1

82

80

Oct 4

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

69

77

0

1

L 0

75

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zadar are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Mega Basket

L

83

90

2

8

L 3

92

93

Jan 10

H

Cedevita Olimpija

L

78

80

2

7

L 2

85

75

Jan 2

A

Crvena zvezda mts

L

66

81

2

6

L 1

78

82

Dec 15

A

KK FMP

W

99

89

2

5

W 1

88

83

Dec 13

A

KK Igokea

L

48

72

1

5

L 3

52

71

Nov 7

A

Partizan NIS

L

63

78

1

4

L 2

69

83

Nov 1

H

KK Split

L

66

72

1

3

L 1

71

81

Oct 19

H

KK Krka

L

70

73

0

2

L 1

77

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Krka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zadar.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zadar and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Krka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Krka (in the first graph) and by Zadar in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Krka will expected to score 79 points and the Zadar 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Krka

Zadar

FG%

0.53

0.50

ASS

14.60

14.60

DRB

20.20

20.80

AST-TO

1.07

1.05

TRB

28.10

29.30

FTM

12.40

16.40

BL

1.80

2.50

FTA

15.30

24.20

PF-Fewer

28.30

20.60

ST

6.30

6.00

TO-Fewer

13.60

13.90

Ftper

0.81

0.68

ORBper

0.39

0.41

ORB

7.90

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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