BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Chalons-Reims vs Metropolitans 92 at 23 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Chalons-Reims vs Metropolitans 92 at 23 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Chalons-Reims and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Chalons-Reims |
4 |
2.32 |
|
Metropolitans 92 |
1.25 |
1.76 |
|
Chalons-Reims HC |
+8.5 |
2.50 |
|
Metropolitans 92 HC |
-8.5 |
-2.50 |
|
Point Line |
161.5 |
162.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Chalons-Reims are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 19 |
A |
BCM Gravelines |
L |
80 |
84 |
1 |
7 |
L 3 |
81 |
91 |
|
Dec 12 |
H |
Elan Chalon |
L |
78 |
87 |
1 |
6 |
L 2 |
76 |
93 |
|
Oct 27 |
A |
Dijon |
L |
72 |
87 |
1 |
5 |
L 1 |
78 |
87 |
|
Oct 24 |
A |
Le Mans |
W |
87 |
84 |
1 |
4 |
W 1 |
84 |
78 |
|
Oct 21 |
A |
Le Portel |
L |
76 |
78 |
0 |
4 |
L 3 |
74 |
82 |
|
Oct 17 |
A |
Orleans Loiret |
L |
79 |
99 |
0 |
3 |
L 2 |
77 |
87 |
|
Oct 10 |
H |
Nanterre |
L |
74 |
83 |
0 |
2 |
L 1 |
77 |
84 |
|
Sep 29 |
H |
ASVEL |
L |
73 |
85 |
0 |
1 |
L 0 |
74 |
76 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Metropolitans 92 are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 26 |
A |
Le Mans |
L |
88 |
95 |
7 |
2 |
L 1 |
85 |
89 |
|
Dec 19 |
H |
Boulazac |
W |
98 |
79 |
7 |
1 |
W 2 |
89 |
86 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
Nanterre |
W |
73 |
67 |
6 |
1 |
W 1 |
76 |
67 |
|
Nov 14 |
H |
JL Bourg |
L |
76 |
79 |
5 |
1 |
L 1 |
77 |
75 |
|
Nov 7 |
H |
Elan Bearnais |
W |
84 |
77 |
5 |
0 |
W 4 |
82 |
78 |
|
Oct 26 |
H |
Limoges |
W |
82 |
76 |
4 |
0 |
W 3 |
85 |
81 |
|
Oct 2 |
H |
Cholet |
W |
72 |
68 |
3 |
0 |
W 2 |
68 |
68 |
|
Sep 26 |
H |
BCM Gravelines |
W |
89 |
57 |
2 |
0 |
W 1 |
90 |
62 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Chalons-Reims and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Metropolitans 92.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Metropolitans 92 and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Chalons-Reims.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Chalons-Reims (in the first graph) and by Metropolitans 92 in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Chalons-Reims will expected to score 77 points and the Metropolitans 92 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Chalons-Reims |
Metropolitans 92 |
|
FG% |
0.50 |
0.57 |
|
ASS |
17.10 |
20.30 |
|
DRB |
21.60 |
20.60 |
|
AST-TO |
1.27 |
2.14 |
|
TRB |
29.40 |
29.10 |
|
FTM |
13.50 |
12.90 |
|
BL |
2.60 |
2.80 |
|
FTA |
18.90 |
16.60 |
|
PF-Fewer |
17.00 |
19.90 |
|
ST |
8.80 |
6.10 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.50 |
9.50 |
|
Ftper |
0.72 |
0.77 |
|
ORBper |
0.36 |
0.41 |
|
ORB |
7.80 |
8.50 |
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