2021 01 23 German BBL – MATH to WIN

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bayreuth vs Bayern Munich at 23 January 2021
Giessen 46ers vs Oldenburg at 23 January 2021
Hamburg Towers vs Skyliners Frankfurt at 23 January 2021
Mitteldeutscher vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 23 January 2021
Ulm vs Niners Chemnitz at 24 January 2021
Brose Bamberg vs L?wen Braunschweig at 24 January 2021
Bonn vs Crailsheim Merlins at 24 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs W?rzburg at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Bayreuth vs Bayern Munich at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayreuth and Bayern Munich for German BBL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bayreuth	8	14.60
Bayern Munich	1.08	1.07
Bayreuth HC	+13.5	11.50
Bayern Munich HC	-13.5	-11.50
Point Line	161.5	166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayreuth are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	HARKO Merlins Crailsheim	L	77	82	4	9		80	77
Jan 9	A	EWE Baskets Oldenburg	L	73	80	4	8		75	73
Jan 2	H	MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg	L	70	89	4	7		74	83
Dec 30	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	73	67	4	6		76	70
Dec 26	H	Giessen 46ers	L	99	110	3	6		86	109
Dec 22	H	s.Oliver Baskets	L	87	93	3	5		88	99
Dec 19	A	Fraport Skyliners	L	86	104	3	4		89	111
Dec 13	A	Basketball Lowen Braunschweig	L	79	90	3	3		72	86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Hamburg Towers	W	85	71	9	2		91	71
Jan 10	H	BV Chemnitz 99	W	77	76	8	2		71	75
Jan 3	A	ALBA Berlin	L	72	85	7	2		79	85
Dec 27	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	84	70	7	1		87	73
Dec 20	A	EWE Baskets Oldenburg	L	95	100	6	1		97	91
Dec 13	H	Giessen 46ers	W	93	71	6	0		81	70
Dec 8	A	Mitteldeutscher BC	W	96	84	5	0		92	83
Dec 6	H	BG Goettingen	W	90	72	4	0		81	74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayreuth and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayreuth.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayreuth (in the first graph) and by Bayern Munich in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayreuth will expected to score 78 points and the Bayern Munich 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Bayreuth	Bayern Munich
FG%	0.55	0.57
ASS	18.60	19.90
DRB	21.50	23.20
AST-TO	1.35	1.59
TRB	29.20	31.90
FTM	16.40	17.40
BL	1.70	3.70
FTA	20.80	21.70
PF-Fewer	17.50	21.20
ST	6.50	6.60
TO-Fewer	13.80	12.50
Ftper	0.79	0.80
ORBper	0.35	0.38
ORB	7.60	8.70

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Giessen 46ers vs Oldenburg at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giessen 46ers and Oldenburg for German BBL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Giessen 46ers	7	5.38
Oldenburg	1.1	1.23
Giessen 46ers HC	+12.5	8.50
Oldenburg HC	-12.5	-8.50
Point Line	180.5	176.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Giessen 46ers are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	SC Rasta Vechta	L	84	97	2	11		81	103
Jan 10	A	ALBA Berlin	L	82	92	2	10		90	92
Jan 2	H	BG Goettingen	L	90	92	2	9		81	95
Dec 30	H	Fraport Skyliners	W	75	74	2	8		78	79
Dec 26	A	Medi Bayreuth	W	110	99	1	7		105	101
Dec 23	A	Telekom Baskets Bonn	L	68	81	0	8		67	85
Dec 18	H	BV Chemnitz 99	L	83	95	0	7		77	94
Dec 15	H	Mitteldeutscher BC	L	93	105	0	6		89	103

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Oldenburg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Mitteldeutscher BC	W	87	79	11	2		83	78
Jan 9	H	Medi Bayreuth	W	80	73	10	2		76	75
Jan 3	A	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	85	78	9	2		88	81
Dec 30	A	SC Rasta Vechta	W	82	80	8	2		79	85
Dec 26	A	Ratiopharm Ulm	W	89	86	7	2		94	84
Dec 23	A	BG Goettingen	W	89	73	6	2		80	76
Dec 20	H	Bayern Munich	W	100	95	5	2		110	92
Dec 12	A	HARKO Merlins Crailsheim	L	80	94	4	2		84	89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Giessen 46ers and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Oldenburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Oldenburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Giessen 46ers.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Giessen 46ers (in the first graph) and by Oldenburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Giessen 46ers will expected to score 83 points and the Oldenburg 93 points. The total points line estimated to be at 176.5 points.

Var	Giessen 46ers	Oldenburg
FG%	0.54	0.58
ASS	16.30	21.30
DRB	20.10	22.50
AST-TO	1.15	2.05
TRB	29.40	29.80
FTM	11.60	17.20
BL	2.20	1.80
FTA	13.90	20.10
PF-Fewer	21.90	21.50
ST	5.80	7.60
TO-Fewer	14.20	10.40
Ftper	0.83	0.86
ORBper	0.46	0.33
ORB	9.30	7.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Hamburg Towers vs Skyliners Frankfurt at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hamburg Towers and Skyliners Frankfurt for German BBL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Hamburg Towers	1.3	1.55
Skyliners Frankfurt	3.5	2.82
Hamburg Towers HC	-7.5	-4.50
Skyliners Frankfurt HC	+7.5	4.50
Point Line	155.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hamburg Towers are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	Bayern Munich	L	71	85	8	4		78	82
Jan 10	H	HARKO Merlins Crailsheim	W	89	72	8	3		93	68
Jan 2	H	SC Rasta Vechta	W	92	74	7	3		89	78
Dec 29	A	MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg	L	65	86	6	3		69	81
Dec 27	H	BV Chemnitz 99	L	75	95	6	2		69	94
Dec 20	A	BG Goettingen	W	98	94	6	1		88	97
Dec 13	H	Ratiopharm Ulm	L	69	73	5	1		73	72
Dec 10	H	Giessen 46ers	W	100	79	5	0		87	78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Skyliners Frankfurt are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	s.Oliver Baskets	L	72	80	5	7		73	85
Jan 10	H	BG Goettingen	W	81	63	5	6		73	65
Jan 2	A	Mitteldeutscher BC	W	94	89	4	6		90	88
Dec 30	A	Giessen 46ers	L	74	75	3	6		64	74
Dec 26	H	Basketball Lowen Braunschweig	W	103	98	3	5		93	94
Dec 22	A	HARKO Merlins Crailsheim	L	64	76	2	5		67	72
Dec 19	H	Medi Bayreuth	W	104	86	2	4		99	88
Dec 12	H	MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg	L	80	94	1	4		85	88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hamburg Towers and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Skyliners Frankfurt.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Skyliners Frankfurt and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hamburg Towers.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Hamburg Towers (in the first graph) and by Skyliners Frankfurt in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Hamburg Towers will expected to score 81 points and the Skyliners Frankfurt 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Hamburg Towers	Skyliners Frankfurt
FG%	0.53	0.51
ASS	17.90	16.00
DRB	22.30	23.80
AST-TO	1.37	1.15
TRB	32.30	31.80
FTM	14.80	17.70
BL	1.40	1.20
FTA	20.30	22.30
PF-Fewer	22.10	20.30
ST	9.10	6.00
TO-Fewer	13.10	13.90
Ftper	0.72	0.79
ORBper	0.45	0.33
ORB	10.00	7.90

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Mitteldeutscher vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mitteldeutscher and Riesen Ludwigsburg for German BBL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Mitteldeutscher	4.5	1.79
Riesen Ludwigsburg	1.21	2.26
Mitteldeutscher HC	+9.5	-2.50
Riesen Ludwigsburg HC	-9.5	2.50
Point Line	175.5	169.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mitteldeutscher are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	EWE Baskets Oldenburg	L	79	87	5	7		81	79
Jan 14	A	Basketball Lowen Braunschweig	W	104	91	5	6		94	88
Jan 2	H	Fraport Skyliners	L	89	94	4	6		92	100
Dec 30	A	BV Chemnitz 99	L	79	96	4	5		73	95
Dec 23	H	SC Rasta Vechta	W	82	72	4	4		79	76
Dec 20	A	s.Oliver Baskets	W	80	68	3	4		81	73
Dec 15	A	Giessen 46ers	W	105	93	2	4		91	92
Dec 12	A	BG Goettingen	W	93	85	1	4		84	88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Riesen Ludwigsburg are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	W	83	75	12	1		86	78
Jan 9	H	Ratiopharm Ulm	W	89	87	11	1		94	85
Jan 2	A	Medi Bayreuth	W	89	70	10	1		85	72
Dec 29	H	Hamburg Towers	W	86	65	9	1		92	65
Dec 27	H	s.Oliver Baskets	W	87	72	8	1		88	77
Dec 22	A	BV Chemnitz 99	W	114	91	7	1		105	90
Dec 19	H	SC Rasta Vechta	W	85	73	6	1		82	78
Dec 12	A	Fraport Skyliners	W	94	80	5	1		97	85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mitteldeutscher and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Riesen Ludwigsburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mitteldeutscher.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mitteldeutscher (in the first graph) and by Riesen Ludwigsburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mitteldeutscher will expected to score 82 points and the Riesen Ludwigsburg 89 points. The total points line estimated to be at 171.5 points.

Var	Mitteldeutscher	Riesen Ludwigsburg
FG%	0.52	0.56
ASS	17.70	15.70
DRB	22.00	20.50
AST-TO	1.21	1.44
TRB	33.20	29.30
FTM	17.00	16.20
BL	3.50	2.20
FTA	20.90	21.80
PF-Fewer	22.60	19.90
ST	7.20	7.50
TO-Fewer	14.60	10.90
Ftper	0.81	0.74
ORBper	0.51	0.43
ORB	11.20	8.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Ulm vs Niners Chemnitz at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ulm and Niners Chemnitz for German BBL, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Ulm	1.09	1.56
Niners Chemnitz	7.5	2.78
Ulm HC	-13.5	-4.50
Niners Chemnitz HC	+13.5	4.50
Point Line	170.5	165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ulm are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	BG Goettingen	W	98	74	7	5		88	76
Jan 9	A	MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg	L	87	89	6	5		92	83
Jan 6	H	Brose Baskets Bamberg	L	67	74	6	4		69	77
Jan 2	H	Telekom Baskets Bonn	W	73	72	6	3		72